1. Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Climate Impacts Group

2. The Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

3. 3 Current drought

5. 5 Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

7. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

9. Daily Temperatures +.51ºC +1.16ºC

11. Last year’s outlook

12. tropical ocean temperatures: a weak El Niño is underway

13. Multi-model forecast summary

14. DJF temp 2004-05

15. JFM temp

16. FMA temp

17. Nov precip

18. DJF precip 2004-05

19. JFM precip

20. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 16, 2004 FMA precip

21. 21 Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 24-Oct 22 2005

22. The PDO has been less prominent since the early 1990s- present From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/~spillane/npac/ NPAC-WinterSST.html 195019601970198019902000 leading patterns of N. Pac. SST since 1950 PDO “Victoria Pattern”

23. PDO index Victoria pattern index The PDO pattern was strong from 1950s through the 1980s The Victoria pattern was strong + from the 1999 through 2003 In the winter of 2004- 2005 North Pacific SSTs similar to the average from 1992-1995 From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186. Phase plot for the 2 leading patterns of North Pacific wintertime SSTs (5 yr avgs) 50s- mid70s late 70s/late 80s x 2005 1999/2003

24. 24 Tropical climate and ENSO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

25. 25 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

26. 26 Oct 12 NOAA CPC ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

27. 27 IRI ENSO Forecast Summary Forecasts from October 2005 call for Nino34 ranging from - 0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENS O/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figur e

28. 28 Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate ENSO-neutral as most likely situation for fall-winter 2005/06 PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” ( see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate ) Expect very weak warm phase PDO conditions for fall/winter PDO = +0.2 to +0.6 st devs for Nino34 = -0.2 to +0.6 A Note on Last year… July-June averages ForecastObserved Nino3.4 index+0.4 to +1.2+0.61 PDO index+0.5 to +1.0+0.65

29. 29 DJF temp 2005-06

30. 30 JFM temp 2006

31. 31 FMA temp 2006

32. 32 NOAA CPC Precipitation Forecasts

33. The Bottom line from CPC “[BECAUSE ENSO IS WEAK] ALL FORECASTS REFLECT INTERDECADAL TREND MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR” above-average winter temperature is likely See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html