1. Modeling the impact of future climate change on salmon habitat restoration actions James Battin Mark Scheuerell Krista Bartz Hiroo Imaki Mary Ruckelshaus Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard Palmer Northwest Fisheries Science Center UW Civil & Environmental Engineering

2. Snohomish River Basin

3. Habitat Destruction & Degradation Habitat Destruction (  Capacity) Riparian forest clearing Channelization Habitat Degradation (  Survival) Increased water temperature Larger floods Increased sedimentation

4. Proposed Habitat Restoration Actions Restore instream habitat --Riparian restoration --Habitat reconnection --Instream habitat restoration Restore hydrologic processes --Land use modification --Floodplain restoration --Road removal Overall goal: increase salmon population size to some target level

5. Modeling Salmon Population Responses to Restoration SHIRAz Relates changes in environment to changes in salmon population size via: --Capacity --Survival Process-based Spatially explicit Stage-structured

6. Conceptual Foundation Life-cycle model is at the core Changes to the “H’s” alter habitats, ecological interactions, and population dynamics Hatchery effects Habitat effects Harvest effects Land use Landscape processes Hydropower effects Life-cycle model SHIRAZ Climate

7. Assessing habitat conditions and landscape processes for life-cycle modeling Instream habitat conditions available from field inventories, gages, and models Land cover information from inventories and GIS-based modeling Fish data from TRTs Fish-habitat relationships from literature

8. Riparian Forest Artificial Barriers Off-channel Habitat Edge Habitat Habitat Structures Forest Cover Impervious Surface Road Density Abundance at Stage s (N s ) Survival from Stage s→s+1 (p s→s+1 ) Capacity at Stage s+1 (c s+1 ) Abundance at Stage s+1 (N s+1 ) Action Class Variables SHIRAZ Inputs SHIRAZ Outputs Fine Sediment Peak Flow Events Temperature Modeling Salmon Population Response to Restoration: SHIRAZ

9. Functional relationships in SHIRAZ Freshwater habitat Biological response Incubation temperature (egg-to-fry survival) Pre-spawning temperature (spawner-to-egg survival) Peak Flow (egg-to-migrant survival) Fine sediment (egg-to-fry survival)

10. SHIRAZ is a life-cycle model estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions peak flows sediment temperature channel structure edge habitat estuary connectivity stream gradient stream width riparian condition Egg Fry Smolt Adult temperature

11. Results of the sensitivity analyses

12. Evaluation of Restoration Scenarios Three scenarios: 1) Historical: Pre-European settlement 2) Current Path: Extrapolation of land use change 3) Restoration

13. SHIRAZ Results: Spawner Abundance Target Percent of Historical

14. Current path Restoration Historical Summarizing spatial structure No spawning <500 spawners 500-1000 spawners >1000 spawners

15. Assumptions of First Round of SHIRAZ Modeling Static climate conditions Linear projection of land use change How robust are proposed restoration actions to violations of these assumptions?

16. Climate Change Over Next 50 Years in the Northwest Warmer air temps  warmer water temps Earlier snowmelt  earlier (more intense?) flooding, lower summer flows Altered precipitation regime (maybe wetter)  increased flood magnitude Altered ocean conditions (possibly warmer)  decreased ocean survival

17. Climate Change Increased Water Temperature Incubation Temp Prespawning Temp Survival  Altered Stream Flow Incubation Flow  Capacity (Ad. & Juv.) Spawning Capacity  Juvenile Capacity? Modeled Climate Effects on Salmon

18. Scenario Planning Uncertainty high, change uncontrollable Evaluate several plausible alternative futures (bracket extremes) Assess how robust recovery actions are to alternative future change (land use and climate) scenarios

19. Future Scenarios for the Snohomish Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming

20. Future Scenarios for the Snohomish Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming Restoration --Historical conditions --Current path --Restoration plan (Alt. 3)

21. Future Scenarios for the Snohomish Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming Restoration --Historical conditions --Current path --Restoration plan (Alt. 3) Land Use --Current Path --High growth --Low growth --Different policy assumptions

22. Changes to Modeling Framework Q: How do we translate future climate and land use scenarios into variables SHIRAZ can use? e.g., how will climate change affect peak winter flows?

23. Changes to Modeling Framework Q: How do we translate future climate and land use scenarios into variables SHIRAZ can use? e.g., how will climate change affect peak winter flows? A: Interface with DHSVM stream flow model

24. Climate Model (GCM) Hydrology Model (DHSVM) Air Temp., Meteorology Salmon Pop. Model (SHIRAZ) Stream flow, Temp. Salmon Population Forecast Land Cover & Land Form Maps Predicted Atmospheric CO 2

25. Model Modifications Make Land Use Change Targets (including Restoration and Current Path) Spatially Explicit

26. 2001 Alternative Land Use Scenarios

27. Current Path 2001 2025 Alternative Land Use Scenarios

28. Current PathRestoration 2001 2025 Alternative Land Use Scenarios

29. Model Modifications Make Land Use Change Targets Spatial Make Model Stochastic (i.e., like a PVA)

30. Model Modifications Make Land Use Change Targets Spatial Make Model Stochastic Develop interface with stochastic DHSVM hydrology model

31. Some Simple, Preliminary Model Perturbations CLIMATE CHANGE Pre-spawning temperature change: -- + 2 degrees C -- + 4 degrees C Incubation period flows: -- + 20% -- + 40% RESTORATION Increased juvenile rearing capacity

32. Percent of Current Path Climate Effects: Current Path

33. Percent of Current Path Interaction of Restoration and Climate

34. Current path Restoration Historical Summarizing spatial structure No spawning <500 spawners 500-1000 spawners >1000 spawners X X X X X X

35. Future Directions More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers

36. Future Directions More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics

37. Future Directions More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics Climate (change) effects on ocean survival --correlated or uncorrelated with freshwater

38. Future Directions More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics Climate (change) effects on ocean survival --correlated or uncorrelated with freshwater Plasticity in life histories of wild fish --how might fish adapt to change? --how will climate/land use change affect the distribution of life history types?

39. Collaborators University of WashingtonNOAA Fisheries School of Aquatic & Fish. Sci.Mary Ruckelshaus Ray HilbornKrista Bartz Mark Scheuerell JISAOHiroo Imaki Nate MantuaKerry Lagueux Dept. of Civil & Env. Engin. Rick Palmer Matt Wiley Liz Korb Andre Ball james.battin@noaa.gov