1. Quantifying Central Committee: Approach and Applications Victor Shih Department of Political Science, Northwestern University Wei Shan Department of Political Science, Duke University Mingxing Liu Peking University, Central Finance and Economic University

2. Data: Central Committee (CC) Database The data quantify all the available biographical information of CC and Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007 The data quantify all the available biographical information of CC and Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007 Each observation (row) represents one CC member Each observation (row) represents one CC member Columns keep track of all the basic demographic variables: birth year, gender, education level…etc. Columns keep track of all the basic demographic variables: birth year, gender, education level…etc. Additional columns record positions held, start year, and end year (Adolph 2003) Additional columns record positions held, start year, and end year (Adolph 2003) This creates a large database, but one can make logical statements to identify a number of sub- populations among CC members. This creates a large database, but one can make logical statements to identify a number of sub- populations among CC members.

3. A Look at the Original Data Member, secretariat Chair, Mass Organization Member, CAC Vice-secretary, CAC

4. Some Problems and Solutions Coding Errors Coding Errors –Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Database Separately Pre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for Party Pre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for Party –Solution: develop a detailed picture of the evolution of the Red Army and party before 1949 (on-going) Bureaucracies Shift Too much Bureaucracies Shift Too much –Solution: “Successor Principle” with some caveats Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy (below ministerial level) Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy (below ministerial level) –Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries, provinces, MR, branches of PLA Overall, new information can easily be incorporated by adding more columns Overall, new information can easily be incorporated by adding more columns

5. Average Birth Year of CC Members

6. Average Education Level of CC Members

7. Factional Influence Indicators (with Shan and Liu) We record the share of CC members with birth, education, or work ties with a PSC member. We record the share of CC members with birth, education, or work ties with a PSC member. Sounds simple, but it requires highly complex logical statements to derive an annual indicator because we need to: Sounds simple, but it requires highly complex logical statements to derive an annual indicator because we need to: –Select people who are CC members in a particular year AND –Select those with birth and education ties with the PSC member OR –Those who have worked at a particular danwei at the same time that the PSC member worked there

8. Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Guofeng versus Hu Yaobang

9. Jiang versus Qiao versus Hu

10. Chairman Mao: A Reinterpretation Mao Formally Takes Over 7 th Party Congress 8 th Party Congress 9 th Party Congress 10 th Party Congress

11. Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Adolph and Liu)

12. CCP Rewards Growth?

13. Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?