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The Politics of Congressional Elections Gary C. Jacobson.

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Presentation on theme: "The Politics of Congressional Elections Gary C. Jacobson."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Politics of Congressional Elections Gary C. Jacobson

2 Context of Congressional Elections Constitutional Framework Congressional Districts Election Laws Political Parties Social and Political

3 Gerrymandering Partisan Tempered by incumbent protection (another use of the gerrymander) and candidate focused voters Facilitated by new computer programs Districts with multiple incumbents Colorado and Texas Davis v. Bandemer – partisan gerrymander unconstitutional if sufficiently egregious. Iowa: a model for reform? Racial Thornburg v. Gingles – districts should not discriminate against minorities. California’s 6 th District in 1982 North Carolina’s 12 th Shaw v. Reno and Miller v. Johnson – limits placed on blatant racial redistricting Hunt v. Cromartie – race can be considered if primary motivation is partisan.

4 Incumbency Reelection Rates – generally higher in House (rarely under 90%) than in Senate (ranges from 55% to 97% in post-WWII elections) Sophomore Surge & Retirement Slump  Slurge Vanishing Marginals Some Sources of the Incumbency Advantage Institutional Characteristics of Congress (Mayhew) Voting Behavior Constituent Service Discouraging opposition through casework, mailings... Career in the District (Fenno) Expansionist  Protectionist Money Spending far more important for nonincumbents, especially challengers So, why are there challengers? Naiveté Easy road to nomination Demonstrate party presence Rewards in simply running

5 Money FECA Private Individuals (largest source) PACs Party Money Money from Colleagues Self-Financing

6 Voting Behavior Who votes? Educated, wealthier, older Role of Party ID (on decline?) Information - Often limited to name identification - Recall versus Recognition - Big advantage for incumbents Contacting Voters (personal, mail, mass media, indirect) - Cumulative effect of various methods - Incumbent advantage - Reason for importance of campaign spending Winning Challengers - Better known - Better financed

7 Elements of a Campaign Organization - Some have campaign staff perpetually in place - Buying one complete (general consulting firm or team of specialists) - Assemble your own - Volunteer based (bargain basement approach) Strategy Media (Free/Earned & Paid) TV, Radio, Newspapers, Billboards, The Internet… Personal Campaigning Message Defining the choice Going Negative GOTV or Depressing Turnout Non-Candidate Advertising “Voter Education” “Issue Advocacy”

8 Reform Options Problem? Reelection rates are exceptionally high. Problem? Legislators are disproportionately wealthy, well-educated, male and white. Problem? Voting rates are low. Problem? Legislators are strong partisans, most people are not.


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