1. 1 ROMS Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation and Forecasting during AOSN II Yi Chao, Zhijin Li, Jei Choi, Peggy Li Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology & Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet, Patrick Marchesiello, Kayo Ide University of California, Los Angeles ASAP Meeting, Feb. 2005 JPL DAAC Ancillary Data Retrieval & Processing 3D Model Assimilation COVO Other NASA DAACs Feedback Non-NASA Data Centers Application Server (GIS) Research Server (POET) SciGIS Server JPL DAAC Ancillary Data Retrieval & Processing 3D Model Assimilation Other NASA DAACs Feedback Non-NASA Data Centers Application Server (GIS) Research Server (POET) SciGIS Server

2. 2 Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): 3-Level On-Line Nesting 15/5/1.5-km 2.5-km 5-km 10-km 20-km Observation (Marchesiello et al., 2003)

3. 3 ROMS Data Assimilation System 12-hour forecast J = 0.5 (x-x f ) T B -1 (x-x f ) + 0.5 (h x-y) T R -1 (h x-y) Time Aug.1 00Z Aug.1 18Z Aug.1 12Z Aug.1 06Z Initial condition 6-hour forecast Aug.2 00Z X a = x f +  x f XaXa xfxf 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method: 3-day forecast y: observation x: model 6-hour assimilation cycle

4. 4 Sea Surface Temperature Data & ROMS Reanalysis Aircraft

5. 5 Observed SST ROMS-Simulated SST

6. 6 03Z 09Z15Z 21Z

7. 7 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 0 AUV Remus ROMS Reanalysis Distance (km) 23 Subsurface salinity minimal 18 Aug (M. Moline)

8. 8 Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations M1

9. 9 Ground-Truth ROMS Reanalysis against Independent Mooring Observations M2

10. 10 Near-Term (3-year) Challenges Remote forcing from basin-scale climate (ENSO, PDO) COAMPS (short- & long-wave) radiative fluxes Tidal processes Real-time interactive feedback via OSSE (Observing System Simulation/Sensitivity Experiment) or “On-Demand Modeling”

11. 11 2003 summer off the U.S. West coast is anomalously warm! How to provide large-scale B.C.?

12. 12 El Nino’s Impact on U.S. West Coast Circulation 1989 2001

13. 13 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)’s Impact on California Coastal Circulation PDO- PDO+ (Chao et al., GRL, 2001)

14. 14 Regional Ocean Modeling System: Nesting High-Resolution Regional Models in Coarse-Resolution Models 15/5/1.5-km

15. 15 Simulating El Nino and La Nina with Pacific ROMS Observations ROMS Temp SSH

16. 16 Simulated PDO: Sea Surface Temperature

17. 17 Net Incoming Short-Wave radiation Reduction in the morning (diurnal cycle) Reduction during the relaxation phase COAMPS didn’t reproduce these features, mostly due to the lack of clouds (low- level), which can be approximated with (1-0.7n c )

18. 18 Net Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation Red: COAMPS Blue: Outgoing computed by blackbody (0.985  T 4 ) radiation MINUS the computed (0.38-0.05e 0.5 ) incoming radiation in the absence of clouds Green: Blackbody outgoing MINUS mooring measured incoming long- wave radiation * Cloud correction (1-0.6n c 2 )

19. 19 Tidal Processes

20. 20 End-to-End System Engineering: Autonomous Real-Time Operations Integrated Ocean Observing and Prediction Systems

21. 21 OSSE Engine (On-Demand Modeling)