1. Trends in Migration to and from Scotland: an Analysis Can migration keep Scotland’s population above 5 million? Phil Rees, Daniel Vickers and Jianhui Jin Paper presented at the Third International Population Geographies Conference, 19-21 June 2006, University of Liverpool

2. Context and Aims Part of a project on Describing and Explaining Migration Flows to and from Scotland for Scottish Enterprise (independent agency part of the Scottish Executive), July 2004 to April 2005Part of a project on Describing and Explaining Migration Flows to and from Scotland for Scottish Enterprise (independent agency part of the Scottish Executive), July 2004 to April 2005 Team:Team: –St. Andrews: Robin Flowerdew, Paul Boyle, Zhiqiang Feng (SIM of 2001 Census migration; individual level analysis using SARs and LFS) –Leeds: Phil Rees, Dan Vickers, Jianhui Jin (time series analysis) –Newcastle: Tony Champion (2001 census migration patterns) –Warwick: Anne Green, David Owen (policy comments) Aims:Aims: –Reporting on recent migration trends to and from Scotland –Modelling migration to and from Scotland with respect to other factors –Suggesting policy implications of our findings for Scotland

3. Scotland’s population stays above 5 millions until 2031 in new projections A new 2004-based projection for the UK published on the 20 th October 2005 by the Government Actuary’s Department forecasts higher populations for Scotland than 2003 based projections (see Table below)A new 2004-based projection for the UK published on the 20 th October 2005 by the Government Actuary’s Department forecasts higher populations for Scotland than 2003 based projections (see Table below) The increase based on higher immigration:The increase based on higher immigration: net migration inflow to UK of +255,000 in 2004-05 (+21,000 in Scotland), reducing to a long-term assumption of +145,000 each year from 2007-08 onwards (+4,000 in Scotland). This compares with an assumed net inflow of +130,000 a year in the previous 2003-based projections. Higher migration based in part of flows from A8 countries and in part on new assumptions about higher labour demand in future, resulting from the retirement of the baby boomers now in the later working ages Projected population (1000s)201120162021 2003 based 503450004963 2004 based 512051265127

4. Population estimates 1976-2004 (GROS) and projections 2004-74 for Scotland (GAD) - Population rises to 2018-20 (previously fell) - High net in-migration for 2004-5 (24k), falling to 4k after 2008 - Lower mortality at older ages leads to steep rise in 75+ population

5. Information on migration trends Good data series from NHSCR run by GROS on migration flows into and out of Scotland and its 15 Health Board AreasGood data series from NHSCR run by GROS on migration flows into and out of Scotland and its 15 Health Board Areas International migration data are available in the National Statistics Total International Migration series based on the International Passenger Survey (ONS), Asylum Seeker and Visitor Switcher Statistics (HO), Labour Force Survey (ONS, CSO Dublin) but they are not regarded as very reliableInternational migration data are available in the National Statistics Total International Migration series based on the International Passenger Survey (ONS), Asylum Seeker and Visitor Switcher Statistics (HO), Labour Force Survey (ONS, CSO Dublin) but they are not regarded as very reliable

6. Trends in last 50 years (1)1950-88: shrinking natural increase and large net migration losses (2)1988-90: shift to new regime (3)1990-96: fluctuating but rough migration balance and low natural change (4)1996-2003: fluctuating migration with natural decrease

7. Scotland’s international migration balance, 1992-2002 2004 based projection total net migration (1000s) assumptions: 2004-5 +21.0 2005-6 +13.5 2006-7 +8.5 2007-8 +4.0 Onwards +4.0 Recent trends in international and total migration have been volatile for Scotland

8. Migration balances between Scotland and the Rest of the UK have swung between negative and positive several times since 1990: 1989-1993 net inflow, 1995-7, 1998-2000 net outflow, 2000-03 net inflow

9. Internal migration to/from Scotland The net inflows have continued in the period 2003-2005 Source: Population Trends 123, Table 8.1) Year Inflow (1000s) Outflow (1000s) Balance (1000s) 200048.853.3-4.5 200156.550.4+6.1 200252.748.4+4.3 200359.846.4+13.4 200456.845.1+11.7 2005 (est.) 55.944.7+11.2

10. Trends in internal migration by life course stage Since 1990, migration between Scotland and the Rest of the UK has been in positive balance for the family ages (0-14, 30-44), the later working ages (45-59) and the retirement ages (60-69, 70+)Since 1990, migration between Scotland and the Rest of the UK has been in positive balance for the family ages (0-14, 30-44), the later working ages (45-59) and the retirement ages (60-69, 70+) The migration balance for 15-19 year olds has been positive though not as high since 1998-99 as before. Scotland is attractive to students entering Higher Education from elsewhere in the UK.The migration balance for 15-19 year olds has been positive though not as high since 1998-99 as before. Scotland is attractive to students entering Higher Education from elsewhere in the UK. Where Scotland has lost migrants is in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups from 1994-95 onwards, following a short period, 1989-90 to 1993-94, of gains. Migrants at these ages are most sensitive to the flux of job opportunities in different regions: the earlier period saw jobs in short supply in SE England, whereas the later period saw a revival in job opportunities.Where Scotland has lost migrants is in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups from 1994-95 onwards, following a short period, 1989-90 to 1993-94, of gains. Migrants at these ages are most sensitive to the flux of job opportunities in different regions: the earlier period saw jobs in short supply in SE England, whereas the later period saw a revival in job opportunities. The graphs that follow provide the evidence for these findings.The graphs that follow provide the evidence for these findings.

11. Net migration for Scotland/Rest of the UK by broad age and three year periods

13. Trends in international migration by life course stage International migrants are more concentrated in the 15- 44 age range than domestic migrants.International migrants are more concentrated in the 15- 44 age range than domestic migrants. In the 15-24 age group, associated with entry to and study in Higher Education, Scotland has usually gained migrants.In the 15-24 age group, associated with entry to and study in Higher Education, Scotland has usually gained migrants. In the age group, 25-44, Scotland has generally lost migrants on balance and also at other ages.In the age group, 25-44, Scotland has generally lost migrants on balance and also at other ages. The patterns have been volatile reflecting both measurement problems and periodic immigration waves.The patterns have been volatile reflecting both measurement problems and periodic immigration waves.

14. Migration trends by region within Scotland The graph and maps that follow show the variation across Scotland for Health Board Areas for five three year periods.The graph and maps that follow show the variation across Scotland for Health Board Areas for five three year periods. The biggest gainers are Lothian, Highland, Grampian and Tayside. In the latter two regions gains reduce sharply over the period, reflecting lower labour demand in the offshore oil and gas industry.The biggest gainers are Lothian, Highland, Grampian and Tayside. In the latter two regions gains reduce sharply over the period, reflecting lower labour demand in the offshore oil and gas industry. The biggest losers are Greater Glasgow, Argyll and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran and Lanarkshire, where industrial restructuring continues.The biggest losers are Greater Glasgow, Argyll and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran and Lanarkshire, where industrial restructuring continues.

17. Internal migration balance (to/from Rest of UK) for the Heath Board Areas of Scotland, 1997-98 to 2002-03, mid- year to mid-year Internal migration balance (to/from Rest of UK for the Health Board Areas of Scotland, 1997-2003 Red = migration gains Blue = migration losses Intensity = size of net flow Argyll & Clyde Greater Glasgow LanarkshireLothian Grampian Highland Tayside

18. Clusters of regions with similar migration behaviour We also summarised the trends across three dimensions of region, age and time by recognizing three clusters of regions with similar behaviour and three uniques with their own behaviour.We also summarised the trends across three dimensions of region, age and time by recognizing three clusters of regions with similar behaviour and three uniques with their own behaviour. Group one, consisting of Argyll and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran, Western Isles exhibited strong losses in ages 15-29 with gains in the other ages.Group one, consisting of Argyll and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran, Western Isles exhibited strong losses in ages 15-29 with gains in the other ages. Group two, including Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Lanarkshire, Orkney, Shetland, experienced losses at ages 15-24, small gains at ages 25-29 and gains at other ages.Group two, including Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Lanarkshire, Orkney, Shetland, experienced losses at ages 15-24, small gains at ages 25-29 and gains at other ages. Group three, Fife, Forth Valley and Highland, made gains in most age groups except ages 20-24.Group three, Fife, Forth Valley and Highland, made gains in most age groups except ages 20-24. The uniquesThe uniques –Lothian, which gained migrants at ages 15-29 but had losses at other ages –Greater Glasgow, which had gains at ages 15-19 and losses in all other age groups –Grampian, which saw losses at ages 20-29 and gains at other ages.

19. Explanations for the internal migration trends We fitted a linear regression model to the time series of in- and out-migration rates by broad age for the 1988-2003 time seriesWe fitted a linear regression model to the time series of in- and out-migration rates by broad age for the 1988-2003 time series Findings from the regression modelling of migration rates using a set of potential determinants can only be tentative, given the small number of observations in the time series, which meant that few determinant variable coefficients were significant at the 5% level.Findings from the regression modelling of migration rates using a set of potential determinants can only be tentative, given the small number of observations in the time series, which meant that few determinant variable coefficients were significant at the 5% level. Cross-sectional variables (measuring Scotland’s socio-economic position) provide no explanation because all trends are linear (by assumption) and we are trying to explain a fluctuating temporal series.Cross-sectional variables (measuring Scotland’s socio-economic position) provide no explanation because all trends are linear (by assumption) and we are trying to explain a fluctuating temporal series. The models included three UK time series variables, real disposable income per head (INC), mortgage interest rate (INT) and the annual GDP growth rate (GRO), and two regional variables, the Scotland unemployment rate (SUN) and the Greater South East unemployment rate (GUN).The models included three UK time series variables, real disposable income per head (INC), mortgage interest rate (INT) and the annual GDP growth rate (GRO), and two regional variables, the Scotland unemployment rate (SUN) and the Greater South East unemployment rate (GUN).

20. Standardised Beta Coefficients for Determinant Variables: In-migration from RUK by broad age and total immigration

22. Implications for policy: negative trends These analyses help identify where Scotland’s migration trends are positive (helping add to the population) and where they are negative (contributing to population loss).These analyses help identify where Scotland’s migration trends are positive (helping add to the population) and where they are negative (contributing to population loss). The negative trends are concentrated in the twenties age range and in the older industrial regions of West Central Scotland, although only Greater Glasgow fails to attract net in-migrants outside of the 29-29 age range. The external balance is negative though variable from year to year. Policy is currently being directed towards retention of young people in their twenties after graduation and towards attracting back to Scotland earlier migrants. Important though those efforts are Scotland should not neglect policies to attract older migrants from the Rest of the UK who already show a willingness to come to Scotland.The negative trends are concentrated in the twenties age range and in the older industrial regions of West Central Scotland, although only Greater Glasgow fails to attract net in-migrants outside of the 29-29 age range. The external balance is negative though variable from year to year. Policy is currently being directed towards retention of young people in their twenties after graduation and towards attracting back to Scotland earlier migrants. Important though those efforts are Scotland should not neglect policies to attract older migrants from the Rest of the UK who already show a willingness to come to Scotland.

23. Implications for policy: positive trends The positive trends occur in ages beyond 30 (families, empty nesters, older workers and retirees) and at ages 15-19. These trends should be encouraged because inward migration will stimulate the demand for services and the labour that is needed.The positive trends occur in ages beyond 30 (families, empty nesters, older workers and retirees) and at ages 15-19. These trends should be encouraged because inward migration will stimulate the demand for services and the labour that is needed. In recent decades consumption led migration is becoming more important compared with production led migration. Scotland has some unique assets for attracting migrants (space and lower congestion than in England, leisure facilities – golf courses, a landscape attractiveness to walkers and climbers). Scotland’s capital and historic towns are attractive to incomers. Scotland’s higher education system attracts students from England and from overseas in substantial numbers and they contribute their consumption to the economy and increasingly their labour.In recent decades consumption led migration is becoming more important compared with production led migration. Scotland has some unique assets for attracting migrants (space and lower congestion than in England, leisure facilities – golf courses, a landscape attractiveness to walkers and climbers). Scotland’s capital and historic towns are attractive to incomers. Scotland’s higher education system attracts students from England and from overseas in substantial numbers and they contribute their consumption to the economy and increasingly their labour.

24. Conclusions Scotland wants to attract more migrants and retain them.Scotland wants to attract more migrants and retain them. The experience of Ireland (EU Tiger economy) suggests if you get the economy right, the people will come.The experience of Ireland (EU Tiger economy) suggests if you get the economy right, the people will come. Targetting the Scottish diaspora is useful but implies attracting older migrants and encouraging them to bring their capital and skills to help develop Scotland’s economy.Targetting the Scottish diaspora is useful but implies attracting older migrants and encouraging them to bring their capital and skills to help develop Scotland’s economy. At current levels net inflows will only postpone population decline for a few decades. The consequences of being the UK region with the lowest fertility and highest mortality will be population decline after 2030.At current levels net inflows will only postpone population decline for a few decades. The consequences of being the UK region with the lowest fertility and highest mortality will be population decline after 2030.