1. Migration and the Irish Labour Market since EU Enlargement Brian McCormick Economist FAS

2. Overview Brief Literature Overview Immigration Trends Profile of EU10 workers Absorption & Segmentation

3. Summary of pre-enlargement literature  Lack of research (Ruhs, 2005)  Immigration reduced wages (Barrett et al, 2006)  In 2004, immigrants earning 18% less (Barrett & McCarthy, 2006)  Immigration main adjustment mechanism (Honohan & Leddin, 2006)

4. Gross Migration Flows 1989-2006

5. Nationality of non-Irish in employment, 2005-2006 Source: CSO 20052007 UK24.5%16.6% Rest of EU 1514.0%11.2% EU 1031.8%48.6% Rest of the World29.7%23.6%

6. To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

7. To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

8. Post-enlargement migration trend Peak?

9. Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

10. Labour demand has been strong

11. …..but shortages have been bearable

12. Age Distribution

13. Educational Profile

14. Occupational Distribution

17. EU10 Earning Less

18. Occupational Distribution

19. Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

20. Absorption & Segmentation Immigration has complemented Irish skills set Displacement not a major issue Doyle et al (2006), FAS (2006) Is segmentation an issue? (low-skill, low-pay) Risks increase in a slowdown Minimum wage risk for low-skill occupations (Fitzgerald et al (2007): Can & should EU10 migration be influenced?

21. Thank you!