1. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Adelaide, 16 April 2007 The Future Environment for Energy Business Jesse H. Ausubel Program for the Human Environment The Rockefeller University, New York City http://phe.rockefeller.edu Acknowledgements: D. Jenkins, P. Grant, C. Marchetti, C. Starr, N. Victor, E. Yantovski

2. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

4. H H C H H CHH H C H H C H H C H H C H H C H H C H H C H H C H H C H HH Methane Gas C:H = 1:4 Typical Oil Typical Coal C:H = 1:2 C:H = 2:1 H H H H H C H C CC CC CC HH C C C C HC C C C C C H H C C C C C CH Carbon-Hydrogen Composition of “Fossil” Fuels Biomass (Wood, hay) ~ 10 Cs per H !!

5. Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985

6. Falling Global Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 18501870189019101930195019701990201020302050 Kg C/GJ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

7. Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003 Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value

8. Luminosity 1996 Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain version of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

9. Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.

10. Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004

11. US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range) Miles Year Cars ( + Buses + Motorcycles ) Walking Trains Horses Air Total (average per decade) Regression Line (2.7% per year) Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989.

12. A spigot in the lower left might draw off the carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004

13. Power Generation Efficiencies for Power Plants 100 500 1000 1500 1700 600800 200400 1000 ZEPP 63% (projected) ZEPP 59% (projected) ZEPP 70% (projected) Gas Turbine 50~55% Gas Turbine 48% Gas Turbine 43% Steam Turbine (Ultra Supercritical) 42~43% Steam Turbine (Conventional) 38~40% Temperature, Celsius Pressure, atmospheres Source: After Ichihara Efficiency increases with higher pressure and temperature.

14. Bankside Power Station, London Opened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000 Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10 th the space “Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares 100m tall

15. Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s Dell laptop, 2004 Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown) Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000 J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004

16. Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland

17. A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.

18. Field projects: based on geography & taxonomy

19. OE Expedition to the Deep Slope May 7 - June 2, 2006 Ian MacDonald Bruce Strickrott AquaPix, Bob Carney Ian MacDonald First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m in the GoM

21. Collection of garbage collected in 4000m depth in the Ierapetra Basin

22. Hidden Ocean Discoveries

23. USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003 semi-log scale Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006 Year

24. Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003 1 10 10,000100,0001,000,000 Annual production, millions of cubic feet 2000 US$/10e3 cubic feet J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005

25. Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005

26. Major fuels ranked by heat value Uranium enriched to 3.5% in LWR Firewood Brown Coals Crude Oils LPG Natural Gas Hydrogen Natural uranium in FBR Natural uranium in CANDU Natural uranium in LWR with U & Pu recycle Natural uranium in LWR 10 0 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 01234567891011121314151617181920 MJ/kg Black Coals Source: N. Victor and J. Ausubel, 2003 Heat Value Rank

27. Energy Production Intensities in watts per square meter Hydro: –Hoover Dam0.0014 –Hydro: All US dams0.0049 –Hydro: Ontario0.012 Biomass: –ethanol from corn (net)0.047 –Ocean biomass0.07 to 0.6 –New England forest0.12 –Corn (whole plant)0.75 –Sugar cane (intensively farmed)3.7 Wind1.2 Solar thermal (actual)3.2

28. Nuclear Power California Coast Power Wind Farm Equivalent 5 Miles Diablo Canyon 2200 MW Power Plant Source: P. Grant

29. Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al. 2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association