1. The External Environment for Developing Countries November 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

2. Global IP gaining momentum in the third quarter of 2009 growth %, 3 month saar Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

3. % share of GDP, 2009*=annualized Gross capital inflows to developing countries surge in second half of 2009 Sources: Dealogic and World Bank

4. Industrial countries

5. Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. economy pulls out of recession with 3.5% growth in Q3-2009 (saar) growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Investment Government Consumption Net exports

6. A favorable employment turn in October with retail sales maintaining momentum retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Change in employment [R] Retail sales [L]

7. Manufacturing has led recovery but services emerging to growth Headline PMI indices for manufacturing and services sector [50=+growth] Source: Institute for Supply Management. PMI manufacturing PMI Services

8. Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Japan’s GDP growth beats expectations for the third quarter at 4.8% (saar) growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net Exports Stocks Government Consumption Investment

9. Japan’s export- and production growth waning into the third quarter export volumes and manufacturing production, ch% saar Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Production Goods export volumes

10. Source: Japan Cabinet Office. New Japanese government inherits debt equivalent to 190% of GDP general government balance as a share of GDP in percent

11. Euro Area emerges from recession on growth in the ‘Big-3” economies GDP growth, q/q percentage change saar Source: Eurostat.

12. Euro Area production up in September on exports and stock rebuilding manufacturing output, German and French export volumes, ch% (saar) Germany exports Source: Eurostat. Euro Area IP France exports

13. Houshold spending still a damper on growth retail volume growth, Euro Area, Germany and France, (ch%, 3mma, y/y) Source: EUROSTAT. France retail volumes Germany retail volumes Euro Area retail volumes

14. Industrial production

15. Global IP picked-up sharply in the third quarter of 2009 growth %, 3 month saar Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

16. High-income countries emerged to growth in output during 2009-Q3 growth %, 3 month saar Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

17. Capacity utilization- outside of Europe trending back toward pre-crisis levels Source: Thomson Datastream and World Bank.

18. International trade

19. East Asian imports step up as Chinese import momentum begins to slow imports, 3mma saar % change Source: Haver Analytics.

20. Import recovery in China grounded in capital-and consumer goods imports, year-over-year % change Source: Haver Analytics.

21. German and Japanese export volumes surge on rising external demand developing import volumes, German and Japanese export volumes, 3mma saar % change Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

22. Oil prices

23. Oil prices break out of recent range… but market still well supplied $/ bbl mb/d Oil price [L scale] OPEC Production [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

24. OECD total oil stocks days of forward consumption Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

25. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Nov 11 $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2017* for select dates in 2009 Feb 18 Jul 13 *Monthly prices interpolated for 2015-17

26. Non-oil commodity prices

27. Grains prices rise on late U.S harvest c/bushel Soybeans [left scale] Corn [right scale] Wheat [left scale] Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

28. Metals prices remain rangebound $/ton Copper Zinc Nickel $/ton Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

29. Gold prices surge above $1,100/toz per toz Gold in US$ Gold in euros Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

30. International Finance

31. Flows to emerging markets surge to $50 billion in October… a new record Source: DECPG Finance Team.

32. Low interest rates in high-income countries contribute to inflows to emerging markets Three-month interbank interest rates (%) Sources: Thomson Datastream and World Bank.

33. Deteriorating credit quality for EM sovereigns net rating: number of upgrades minus downgrades* Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations. *Includes rating actions from Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch.

34. Currencies

35. Source: Thomson/Datastrea m. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar’s fall from Spring peaks now 20% vs Euro…10% against yen USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

36. Source: JPMorgan-Chase. Nominal effective rate [NEER] Dollar fall is half that of 2002-07… but decline compressed into 6 months Indices, Jan 1990=100. Real effective rate [REER] 25% decline 12% decline

37. EM curencies surge on strong capital flows to domestic markets U.S. dollar per local currency, percent change Source: DEC Prospects Group.