1. A Distributed Flash Flood Forecasting Rainfall- Runoff Model Applied to Watersheds in the Northeast United States Michael Schaffner NOAA National Weather Service WFO Binghamton, NY Carl Unkrich USDA ARS Tucson, AZ NROW November 6, 2008

2. Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Program (FFMP) This allows the forecaster to pinpoint (i.e. provide site specific information) which basins are receiving the heaviest rainfall. Does not allow the forecaster in most cases to determine the timing and magnitude of an event.

3. Above image from: http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/ Plan View Schematic View Distributed Model composed of a cascade of planes and channel elements. Takes into account spatial distribution of soil type, land use, topography, and rainfall. Kinematic wave equations for channel routing. Model functions in real-time with radar interface. Allows the user to run ensembles to investigate either multiple Z-R relationships or variability in model parameters. Outlet Bush Kill near Arkville

4. Setting up KINEROS Delineate watershed boundary and interior sub-watersheds using a GIS application. Collect in the field stream manning roughness values. Collect channel width measurements from field work or using high resolution remote sensing.

5. Model Calibration Each event was calibrated for the magnitude and the timing of the peak flow. Calibration was accomplished by adjustment of multipliers that globally adjust individual model parameters. Saturated Hydrologic Conductivity (Ks) multiplier was utilized to calibrate the magnitude of the peak flow. Channel length multiplier was utilized to calibrate the timing of the peak flow.

6. Platte Kill near Dunraven 34 square miles. Catskill mountains. USGS stream gage. Outlet

7. Typical Hydrograph for Platte Kill Reasonable simulation of primary and secondary peak magnitude and timing. Later and more rapid rate of rise than seen in the gage record. More rapid rate of fall than seen in the gage record.

8. Additional Platte Kill Hydrographs

9. Hydrographs point to the need for an additional model component Discussions with USDA and Peter Troch (UA) on the addition of his shallow-sub-surface lateral flow model (hsB) into KINEROS. We are actively seeking funding to incorporate this model into KINEROS.

10. Platte Kill Calibration for Operational Use Poor R-square when all events are taken into account. Decided to consider only those events where the basin average rainfall would have hydrological significance.

11. Platte Kill Calibration for Operational Use Continued Good trend in both channel length and Ks multipliers for events of 1 inch or greater basin average rainfall. Good R-square when only considering events such events.

12. Modeling Un-gauged Basins Modeling of un-gauged basins represents a significant challenge and operational need within the NWS. Watersheds in the Town of Colchester, Delaware County, NY were impacted by flash floods on June 19, 2007 and July 23, 2008. Time and magnitude of the peak flow and associated impacts were determined. Watersheds were calibrated to these flash flood events.

13. Spring Brook near Roscoe 9 square miles 4 lives lost on June 19, 2007 Multiple sections of Route 206 impassible Several homes washed off their foundations

14. Spring Brook Hydrograph for June 19, 2007 Flash flood warning issued at 7:01 PM. Major flash flooding and loss of life reported at 7:50 PM. KINEROS first began to forecast major flash flooding at 5:30 PM.

15. Berry Brook near Roscoe 4.5 square mile Plane View Indirect discharge measurement cross section for June 19, 2007 flash flood event located along Berry Brook Road

16. Berry Brook Hydrograph for June 19, 2007 Flash flood warning issued at 7:01 PM. Major flash flooding and multiple wash- outs along Berry Brook Road were reported at 8:30 PM. KINEROS first began to forecast major flash flooding at 6:10 PM.

17. Future Work Test KINEROS on larger sized basins (200 – 250 square miles). Add ability for the forecaster to add QPF. Have undergraduate intern work with KINEROS over summer 2009. Produce NWS technical publication on results. Test KINEROS in areas outside of the Binghamton forecast area. Add shallow groundwater flow model component (funding required) Simple snow model (long term).

18. Questions / Comments?