1. Danish consumers’ attitude towards future wind power development schemes FAME: Workshop on New Development in Rights-based Fisheries Management: Community Fishing Rights Jacob Ladenburg FAME and Food & Resource Economics Institute, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen

2. Wind Power Development in Denmark (I) Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC, 1997) Wind power is an important component in the Danish CO 2 reduction strategy (Ministry of Finance, 2003)

3. Wind Power Development in Denmark (II) High density of land based wind turbines Future development: –replacing existing land wind turbines with fewer but larger turbines –increase the off-shore capacity (DMEBA, 2004).

4. Benefits and Impacts (I) Wind energy is a clean technology with regards to the emission of CO 2, SO x, NO x (EWEA, 2002) But.. –Visual impacts –Noise impacts –Other impacts on the environment So what is the Danish consumers’ attitude towards increasing the wind power capacity?

5. The study on attitude towards increase land based and off-shore wind power capacity Questionnaires mailed to respondents in three samples: –National Sample 700 respondents. –Local samples Nysted and Horns Reef, 350 respondents each. Response rate approximately 45 %. (Ladenburg et al. 2005)

6. Probit model for a positive or neutral attitude (I) Attitude towards benefits and negative impacts are assumed to be individual determined (Schlesisner & Nielsen, 1997, Berry et al. 1998, Manwell, 2002) Attitude= f(x i ) Where x i is characterised by: –Socio-economic variables (gender, age, income, education etc) –Geographical variables (zipcode, region, size of the city, living close to a wind turbine etc.) –Energy and wind power related variables (attitude to global warming, externalities of wind turbines, attitude to nuclear power etc.)

7. Probit model for a positive or neutral attitude (II) Let y i * denote the individual latent variable, x i is the characteristics of individual i and ε i is the individual specific error term, standard normal distributed The latent value y i * is mapped => y i by assuming that: y i =1 if y i * ≥0 y i =0 if yi * <0

8. Attitude towards more land based turbines (I)

9. Attitude towards more land based turbines (II) Variables Model IModel II Age50+ -0,6521(0,001)-0.6514(0.008) Gender_Age50+ 0,4431(0,068)0.2814(0.335) Age- Missing -0,7155(0,055)-0.7990(0.098) Cities>60.000_J 0,7999(0,035)0.9229(0.051) Larger_Cities_Z 0,5759(0,003)0.5186(0.029) Constant 0,8827(>0,0001)6.6517(>0.0001) Visual impacts on land -4.6037(>0.0001)

10. Attitude towards more off-shore wind farms (I)

11. Attitude towards more off-shore wind farms (II) VariablesModel IModel II Age55+ -0,4815(0,037)-0.9131(0.030) Age_missing -0,6971(0,121)-0.6048(0.547) M.Out_Org -0,5054(0,108)-0.5503(0.403) Constant 1,8343(0,000)10.9636(>0.0001) Visual impacts on the landscape -1.3074(>0.0001) Impacts on birds and life in the sea -1.6643(>0.002)

12. Attitude towards more off-shore wind farms (III) VariablesModel IModel II Age>39-0,7308(0,098)-0.3626(0.631) Age>39_View_offs.-0,5624(0,059)-0.7145(0.204) Coast_Zip_Horns Reef-1,4713(0,017)-1.7022(0.322) Horns Reef_Prof_Fisher-1,6187(0,044)-2.2881(0.026) Nysted-sample-0,6215(0,059)-0.2144(0.752) Constant2,7802(>0,0001)10.3525(>0.0001) Visual impact on the landscape-1.8405(>0.0001) Impact on birds and life in the sea-0.0878(0.0120)

13. Discussion Age relations –Age or generation dependent Free choice vs. economic trade-offs –What if cost increases ? –What if the impacts can be reduced ? Moving wind farms to larger distances from the coast Replacing the number of turbines on land with less but smaller one

14. Conclusion General support of the increasing wind power capacity both on land and off-shore But information is needed on: –trade-offs between cost and location –cost and the reduction of the impacts associated with wind power generation