1. Systems Thinking Lab 11

2. Overview What is a system? What is systems thinking? Mechanistic thinking vs. Systems thinking How to use a Causal Loop diagram : Balancing loop and reinforcing loop Case Study: Garbage Sanitation system in NY as an Example In class activity 1) two students Activity: 10 min 2) four students Activity: 20 min - Make a 5 min presentation: 30 min 3) Large Group Activity: 30 min

3. What is a System? “An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized around some purpose” -Dana Meadows

4. What is Systems Thinking "A discipline for seeing wholes...a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns rather than static snapshots" -Peter Senge A perspective on reality A set of tools A new vocabulary

5. A perspective on reality… Mechanistic Thinking Parts Objects Events Isolation Specificity Simplicity Systemic Thinking Wholes Relationships Structures Interdependence Generality Complexity

6. Linear Thinking “ Laundry list” approach Assumption: each activity operates independently Effective for many problems Relationships between activities are often overlooked in getting things done

7. Systems Thinking Interactions between activities give insight into real world complexity The interactions between the activities are as important as the activities themselves

8. Reinforcing Metaphors –Spiraling into oblivion – We’re on a roll –On the way up –Snowballing out of control Examples –Cancer –Team Morale –Bank Debts –Panic Attacks –Savings account interest BIRTHS PER YEAR POPULATION S S (R)

9. Balancing Mechanical Systems –Air Conditioning Human –Hunger –Body Temperature Ecological –Predator/ Prey OPENING OF WARM WATER FAUCET SHOWER TEMPERATURE S S (B) DESIRED SHOWER TEMPERATURE O

10. POPULATION CAUSAL DIAGRAMMING - NOTATION YEARLY BIRTHS YEARLY DEATHS os s R Population growth B Population decline BIRTH RATE s LIFE EXPECTANCY s Add units of measure if this clarifies! o

11. BCA E D F Moves you from this perspective: To this: AB BA E F C BA E F SYSTEMS THINKING IN PRACTICE

12. System Thinking Tool: Causal Loop Diagrams Components of tool –Describe links between large number of variables –+ or s = moves in same direction –- or o = moves in opposite direction Types of Loops –Reinforcing –Balancing Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S+S+ S S+S+ S+S+ O O O_O_

13. Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams REINFORCING POSITIVE EVEN NUMBER of or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS BALANCING NEGATIVE ODD NUMBER OF NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS Reinforcing loop – reinforces change with even more change; leads to exponential growth or decline # PEOPLE TIME

14. Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams REINFORCING POSITIVE EVEN NUMBER of or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS BALANCING NEGATIVE ODD NUMBER OF NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS Balancing loop – pushes level up or down to reach a goal (i.e., carrying capacity). # PEOPLE

15. Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O Number of people in a city (P) (C) Migration into a city (M) Modernization (G) Amount of garbage per area (B) Bacteria per person (D) Number of diseases (S) Sanitation facilities S S S S S S S O O O R R R B (1) (2) (3) (4)

16. Systems Thinking in Practice  ”Long term view” means to remember the long term consequences  ”System view” means to remember the feedback effects  ”Holistic view” means to (try) to remember all effects  All 3 are useful, because they reduce the number of surprises

17. COMPANY ETHICS COMPANY COST COMPANY ADVANTAGE COMPANY REPUTATION S S S 0 Long Term View- Delays

18. COMPANY ETHICS COMPANY REPUTATION COMPANY ADVANTAGE COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION COMPETITOR’S ETHICS COMPETITOR’S REPUTATION S S S S S 0 (B) System View- Feedback

19. COMPANY ETHICS COMPANY REPUTATION COMPANY ADVANTAGE COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION COMPETITOR’S ETHICS COMPETITOR’S REPUTATION S S S S S 0 EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION COMPANY HIRING COSTS WORKER PRODUCTIVITY ……AND SO ON COMPANY COSTS (B) S S O S O O S (R) Holistic View- All Effects

20. Your Task Team up in pairs and create two causal loops of 4 meatballs from the article Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity. Make sure that one loop is reinforcing and one is a balancing loop.Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity Attribute + and - to the links and record your reasoning. Get together with another pair and explain loops to each other; decide on one reinforcing and one balancing loop and draw it on an overhead, large paper or chalkboard. Each group of four will present their two loops to the class.

21. Migration to a Hotspot UrbanizationPovertyGender Equity Migration to a City PopulationDeforestationUrban sprawl BiodiversityTransmitted Disease EducationInternational Trade Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Accessibility To family planning Policy innovation and new programmatic approaches Female Economic And political power

22. Poverty In the rural area Migration into a city Urbanization + + - Urban sprawl + Gender Equity Population Unsustainable Use of Local Natural Resources + Biodiversity - Disease -- Deforestation and fragmentation + - + Education - + Sound Management of Natural Resources + Ecological or Environmenta l Health + New Policies and programmatic approaches Accessibility to Family service + + + + + + - - + + + Migration into a hotspot - International Trade