1. General Lecture 1. Modeling and Sustainability CE5504 Surface Water Quality Modeling

2. Sustainability In our every deliberation we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations. Iroquois Confederacy http://www.interspecies.com/pages/7th_gen.html http://www.bathtram.org/tfb/tE04.htm Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987

3. …a mathematical model is an idealized formulation that represents the response of a physical system to external stimuli. Chapra 1997, p. 10 Modeling

4. Toward Sustainability 1) a knowledge of the way a system works. We might think of this as a research model. 2) a manner of predicting cause and effect. We might think of this as a management model. Decisions supporting a sustainable future require:

5. Understanding the System http://www.wordinfo.info/words/index/info/view_unit/1/?letter=B&spage=3 The Blind Men and the Elephant John Godfrey Saxe, 1816-1887

6. It was six men of Indostan To learning much inclined, Who went to see the Elephant (Though all of them were blind), That each by observation Might satisfy his mind The First approached the Elephant, And happening to fall Against his broad and sturdy side, At once began to bawl: “God bless me! but the Elephant Is very like a wall!” The Second, feeling of the tusk, Cried, “Ho! what have we here So very round and smooth and sharp? To me ’tis mighty clear This wonder of an Elephant Is very like a spear!” The Third approached the animal, And happening to take The squirming trunk within his hands, Thus boldly up and spake: “I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant Is very like a snake!” To Better See the Elephant … The Fourth reached out an eager hand, And felt about the knee. “What most this wondrous beast is like Is mighty plain,” quoth he; “ ‘Tis clear enough the Elephant Is very like a tree!” The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear, Said: “E’en the blindest man Can tell what this resembles most; Deny the fact who can This marvel of an Elephant Is very like a fan!” The Sixth no sooner had begun About the beast to grope, Than, seizing on the swinging tail That fell within his scope, “I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant Is very like a rope!” And so these men of Indostan Disputed loud and long, Each in his own opinion Exceeding stiff and strong, Though each was partly in the right, And all were in the wrong! So oft in theologic wars, The disputants, I ween, Rail on in utter ignorance Of what each other mean, And prate about an Elephant Not one of them has seen!

7. To provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that give rise to various types of water quality behavior, such understanding to be sharpened by the formulation and testing of hypotheses of the cause-effect relationships between residual inputs and resulting water quality. (Thomann and Mueller 1987) Research Models

8. Field Observations Mathematical Model Process Studies Conceptual Framework To Validate our Understanding of System Response Why model? The research perspective –

9. Predicting Cause and Effect

10. Cause & Effect: firing a projectile by Trial and Error

11. Cause and Effect: achieving sustainability by Build and Measure

12. underdesign - …the environmental engineering equivalent of building a bridge that falls down. www.civil.columbia.edu/ce4210/bridgecollapse.html (Thomann and Mueller 1987, p. ix) Undesirable Outcomes

13. overdesign - …the environmental engineering equivalent of building a bridge to nowhere. http://www.zen39641.zen.co.uk/ps/ (Thomann and Mueller 1987, p. ix) Undesirable Outcomes

14. Cause and Effect: firing a projectile by Applying a Model angle distance

15. Linking … Action and Reaction Perturbation and Response Cause and Effect by Applying a Model Cause and Effect: achieving sustainability

16. To provide a more rational basis for making water quality control decisions, such a basis to include a defensible, credible, predictive framework, within the larger framework of cost-benefit analysis. (Thomann and Mueller 1987) Management Models

17. Why model? The management perspective –

18. (Chapra 1997, Figure 1.1) CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling Water and Wastewater in an Urban Setting

19. (Chapra 1997, Figure 1.2) CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling The Water Quality Management Process

20. (Chapra 1997, Figure 1.7) CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling Why model? Economics.

21. CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling  Specify water use  Establish water quality criteria  Determine cause and effect  Identified engineered alternatives  Conduct cost-benefit analysis  Evaluate socioeconomic impact A Water Quality Management Plan

22. CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling universities/institutes (UFI) government (LLRS) consulting (LTI) Upstate Freshwater Institute Syracuse, New York EPA Large Lakes Research Station Grosse Ile, Michigan Limno Tech, Inc. Ann Arbor, Michigan Opportunities