1. Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment rdempsey@psu.edu

2. CARA REGION 15% of the nations population 15% of the nations population <10% of the territory <10% of the territory 2 largest estuaries 2 largest estuaries One-quarter agriculture One-quarter agriculture Two-thirds forest Two-thirds forest

3. PRIOR RESEARCH United States Regional Assessment MARA MARA NERA NERA

4. Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE TRENDS Temperature: 52 degrees F, average annual T 52 degrees F, average annual T 1 degree Fahrenheit increase 1 degree Fahrenheit increase Projected Temperature increase Projected Temperature increasePrecipitation: 41 inches, average annual ppt 41 inches, average annual ppt 10% increase 10% increase Projected ppt variability Projected ppt variability Extreme events are more noticeable

6. LESSONS LEARNED FROM MARA While processes are global in extent… Interactions with human systems at regional scales are decisive for planners and policy makers Global & national  Regional & local integrated assessments

7. GOAL  Web-based information resource and tools to support decision making affected by changes in land use and climate  Stakeholder driven development, research and integration

8. SECTORS Agriculture Agriculture Economy Economy Ecosystems Ecosystems Forests Forests Human Health Human Health Sea-level rise Sea-level rise Water resources Water resources

9. THE CONSORTIUM US Environmental Protection Agency US Environmental Protection Agency Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Rhode Island, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Rhode Island, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Collaborators, Advisory Council, Students Collaborators, Advisory Council, Students 100+ stakeholders 100+ stakeholders Scientific, public, private, government sectors Scientific, public, private, government sectors

10. CASE STUDIES Safeguarding: Natural resources Natural resources Local Economy Local Economy Infrastructure Infrastructure

11. THE CARA WEBSITE Integrates climate and land use change information at the regional and local levels Integrates climate and land use change information at the regional and local levels Provides data, tools, guidance for assessing: Provides data, tools, guidance for assessing: Potential impacts Potential impacts Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities Options and opportunities Options and opportunities

12. FOR MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS Improving use of information in decision making and policy Improving use of information in decision making and policy Enhancing dialog and cooperation among scientists and between science and society Enhancing dialog and cooperation among scientists and between science and society Adapting to potential impacts due to changes in land use and climate Adapting to potential impacts due to changes in land use and climate

13. DATA Climate data Climate data Land use data Land use data Environmental quality data Environmental quality data Socio-economic data Socio-economic data Data sources Data sources

14. WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN DO Synthesize; interpret information: Synthesize; interpret information: Climate Climate Land use Land use Environment Environment Socio-economics Socio-economics Gather additional information Gather additional information Make graphs, maps etc. Make graphs, maps etc. Visualize the future via scenarios Visualize the future via scenarios Assess change, vulnerability, uncertainty Assess change, vulnerability, uncertainty Systematically evaluate options; plan Systematically evaluate options; plan

15. WEB-BASED TOOLS, GUIDANCE Tools to Tools to Access, analyze information Access, analyze information Integrate information Integrate information Synthesize information Synthesize information Apply information Apply information other other Tool integration Tool integration Content integration Content integration Web integration Web integration Guidance/ website Guidance/ website Development with stakeholders; case studies Development with stakeholders; case studies Interactive Interactive Iterative Iterative

16. TOOLS CARAViz CARAViz ClimateTrendsViz ClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

17. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz ClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

18. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

19. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

20. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

21. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator FloodLocator FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

22. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

23. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] DecisionsSupportTool DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

24. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] e-DelphiTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

25. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] e-DelphiTool : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] e-DelphiTool : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler

26. TOOLS CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] CARAViz : a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] ClimateTrendsViz : identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool : for choosing a Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] SensitivityScreenTool : to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] CARA-Tutor : on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FloodLocator : identifies locations vulnerable to sea level rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] FutureShaper : generates comprehensive future scenarios of the [near completion] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] DecisionsSupportTool : identifies critical decisions, policy options [in progress] e-DelphiTool : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] e-DelphiTool : facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler : manages, integrates, synthesizes information [in progress] DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler : manages, integrates, synthesizes information [in progress]

27. STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS How has climate of the mid & upper Atlantic region changed in recent past? How has climate of the mid & upper Atlantic region changed in recent past? How well do the models work? How well do they simulate this climate? How well do the models work? How well do they simulate this climate?

28. CLIMATE TOOLS View current and historic climate by region, county View current and historic climate by region, county Choose among 7 Global Climate Models Choose among 7 Global Climate Models Analyze T or ppt for region, county Analyze T or ppt for region, county View model’s projections over time View model’s projections over time Compare with other models Compare with other models

29. CLIMATE VARIABLES Temperature Temperature Precipitation Precipitation

30. TIME PERIODS Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON 30-year periods: 30-year periods: 1961-1990 1961-1990 2010-2039 2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069 2070-2099 2070-2099 Model outputs only for monthly average (time scales < one month NOT considered) Model outputs only for monthly average (time scales < one month NOT considered)

31. EXAMPLE TIME SERIES TOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)

32. MODEL EVALUATION Description of climate models used Description of climate models used (currently 5, planning on 7) Modeled and observed climate variables for 1961-1990: Modeled and observed climate variables for 1961-1990: seasonal averages seasonal averages (planning) interannual variability (planning) interannual variability

33. 7 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ( HCCPR ) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ( HCCPR ) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIRO ) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIRO ) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ) Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis ( CCC ) Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis ( CCC ) Center for Climate Research Studies ( CCSR )/ National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Center for Climate Research Studies ( CCSR )/ National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfM) Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfM) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

34. MODEL EVALUATION LITTLE FALLS, NY

35. EVALUATION OVER REGION

36. MODEL PROJECTIONS Description of model inputs (greenhouse gas concentrations) Description of model inputs (greenhouse gas concentrations) Projected climate Projected climate

37. IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATION CO 2 concentrations Climate variables: Temperature, precipitation, humidity, winds, etc. Population growth, economy, behavior, etc. (IPCC “storyline”: A2, B2, etc.) CO 2 emissions Carbon Cycle ModelPhysical climate Model

38. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 RESULTING CO 2 CONCENTRATIONS Used by CARA IPCC (2001) year

39. PROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NY

40. INFORMATION INTEGRATION Climate & Land Use Socio-economic factors Socio-economic factors Environmental quality Environmental quality