1. WHY IKE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WAS SO DEVASTATING THE FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE 2011 Hurricane Outlook Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com

2. Home of the Nation’s First Weather Museum Weather Research Center

4. WRC inspires students through science experiments and presentations that cover a wide variety of meteorological and climatology topics. Programs which emphasize science and mathematics are available at both the museum and through our websites. These programs include Weather Camp, Weather Labs, Teacher Weather Workshops and Student Summer Internships. Who We Are

5. The John C. Freeman Weather Forecast Training and Operations Center WRC Meteorologists

6. The John C. Freeman Weather Forecast Training and Operations Center World Wide Marine Weather Forecasts Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Predictions Environmental Studies Weather Forensics Long Range Weather Forecasts Development of Forecast Models

7. Significant Projects: Established the Nation’s First Weather Museum Texas First Tornado Warning Network 1st Storm Tide Prediction System (Bathystrophic Storm Tide)

8. Hurricane Ivan – 2004 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita – 2005 and Hurricane Ike 2008 would make one believe that hurricanes are getting larger and stronger.

9. Hurricane Ivan – 2004 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita – 2005 and Hurricane Ike 2008 would make one believe that hurricanes are getting larger and stronger. Is this due to climate change or is human’s understanding of hurricanes changing?

12. Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 32 Category 5 Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 - 882 mbs Highest maximum sustained winds – Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots Most Category 5 Hurricanes per season 2005 – (Four) – Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma 2007 – (Two) – Dean and Felix 1961 – (Two) – Carla and Hattie 1960 – (Two) – Donna and Ethel

14. NOTABLE CATEGORY 5 GOM LEASE HURRICANES 165 kts Hurricane Camille 1969 155 ktsHurricane Allen 1980 155 ktsHurricane Rita2005 150 ktsHurricane Carla 1961 150 ktsHurricane Katrina2005 140 ktsHurricane Beulah1967 140 ktsHurricane Ethel1960 135 ktsHurricane Betsy1965

15. PLOT OF THE NUMBER OF KNOWN TROPICAL CYCLONES 1900- 2008 Seems to indicate that the number of cyclones is increasing?

16. Problems with Using Historical Tropical Cyclone Data 1851-1914 – Landfall observations and Ship Reports 1915-1945 – Density of Ship Reports expanded after the Panama Canal opened 1946-1965 – Ship traffic expands after WWII 1966 – Continuous monitoring by satellite begins 2002 – QuikScat wind vectors – Improved satellite observations

17. Atlantic ship traffic changes Vecchi and Knutson (2008)

18. Radar in 1957 versus Doppler Radar in 2005

19. Open Atlantic Ocean Differences 1933 Hurricane Season 2005 Hurricane Season Data problem: Hurricanes were hardly detected over open ocean before the era of aircraft reconnaissance (mid-1940s) and satellite technology (mid-1960s). Landsea (2007, Eos)

20. Estimated Number of “Missed” Tropical Storms and Hurricanes of Medium to Long Duration 3 per year in 1880s 2 per year in 1900s <1 per year in 1950s

21. Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – Upward Trend Gone After Adding in “Missed” and Removing Very Short-Lived Cyclones 9 8

22. Size Matters!

23. Hurricane Wind Fields for Past GOM Hurricanes

25. There were 50 Gulf of Mexico Oil Lease Hurricanes where the size of the hurricane wind field could be estimated. 10 of these hurricanes had a radius of maximum sustained winds of 50 nautical miles or less. 23 of the hurricanes had a radius greater than 50 nautical miles but less than 61 nautical miles. 17 of the hurricanes had a radius of hurricane force winds greater than 69 nautical miles.

26. WHY SIZE MATTERS! The distance the wind blows over a body of water [fetch] and the duration of the high winds, the higher the waves can become.

27. Gulf of Mexico Category 3, 4 & 5 Hurricanes

37. The result of this research is the development of The Freeman/Hasling Hurricane Damage Potential Scale [Freeman/Hasling - HDP Scale]

38. The Freeman/Hasling Hurricane Damage Potential Scale is based on: Maximum Sustained Wind Radius of Hurricane Force Winds Central Pressure Area of Significant Wave > 34 Feet Hurricane Track Hurricane Speed Duration of Hurricane Force Winds Exposed Offshore Properties

39. Freeman/Hasling Hurricane Damage Potential Scale R64<=30>30>=45>=60>=80 Saffir/Simpson 111145 211155 311155 411255 512355 Freeman/Hasling HDP Scale 12345 HDP Percent 2%4%6%8%10%

40. Are Humans at Fault for More and Stronger Offshore Hurricanes? Yes In Summary, to answer the questions:

41. Have there been similar Gulf of Mexico hurricanes to Ivan 2004, Katrina 2005, Rita 2005 and Ike 2008? Yes the hurricanes in the 1960s, 1910s, and 1880s. In the 1960s, there were four Category 5 hurricanes over the Gulf leases.

42. If the Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are sorted by decades, are there differences in the number and strength of hurricanes by decade? Yes, for two decades you will have an active period of major hurricanes followed by a decade of very few major hurricanes over the Gulf leases.

43. How would the early Gulf of Mexico hurricanes impact the Gulf oil leases today? The 1910s would have been very devastating to the properties in the Gulf of Mexico with five Category 5 hurricanes. There were two Category 4 hurricanes in 1915, one that went over the eastern oil leases and one that went through the western oil leases.

44. Were the hurricanes of the 1960s smaller and weaker or was the exposure offshore less dense? The exposure of the properties to the hurricanes of the 1960s was less dense. Hurricane Carla in 1961 was a Category 5 hurricane offshore with a very large wind field. At the time, there were only 517 offshore properties.

45. How have humans observed hurricanes throughout history? How humans have observed hurricanes has changed through the years as technology improves. This has impacted the number of observed hurricanes and the hurricane climatology.

46. What part do improved observations play in the size and strength of hurricanes? Humans are responsible for the implied increase in hurricane frequency and strengths by developing the improved observing tools.

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