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Productivity is measured by:
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Real GDP Millions of Workers 0 100120 $7 Trillion $8 Trillion Employment and Labor Productivity A B Slope = productivity = $70,000 Slope = productivity = $66,666 Productivity is given by the slope of a line from the origin to a point on the production function
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Real GDP Millions of Workers 0 100120 $7 Trillion $8 Trillion Shifts of the Aggregate Production Function 1.Increase in the stock of human capital 2.Increase in the stock of physical capital 3.Technical change A B productivity = $70,000 productivity = $80,000 H
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Enlarging the stock of human capital means allocating scarce resources for education and training. There is an opportunity cost for both individuals and society.
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Education and Training All other goods 0 A B Providing resources for education and training entails a short- run trade-off.
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Net investment raises the capital to labor ratio, ceteris paribus. This boosts productivity 0Employment (millions) Real GDP ($ Trillions)
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Capital goods All other goods 0 A B But production of capital goods involves trade-offs too
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Increase incentives to invest 1.Reduced corporate profit taxes. 2.Investment tax credits Increase incentives to save: 1.Reduce taxes on capital gains. 2.Tax consumption Government Deficit Reduction
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Interest Rate Funds ($ Trillions) 0 An Increase in Investment Demand I 1 = Original Demand for Funds I 2 = New Demand for Funds 3% 5% 1.51.752.25
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Interest Rate Funds ($ Trillions) 0 An Increase in Saving 1.752.252.5 Investment Spending 3% 5% S 1 = Original Supply of Funds S 2 = New Supply of Funds B F C
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Interest Rate Funds ($ Trillions) 0 Reduction of the Government Deficit Investment Spending + Deficit Investment Spending Deficit is reduced from $.75 trillion to zero 1.01.51.75 Supply of Funds (Saving) 5% 3% E A B
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Robert Solow. “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function, 1919-1954,” Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1957. Professor Solow has claimed that about 2/3 of the growth of real GDP per head in the the U.S. can be explained by technical innovation
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Steam engine Electrification The assembly line Continuous process manufacturing The telephone Internal combustion engine Air conditioning Cotton harvester The transistor The computer Electronic data interchange Robotics Genetically-modified seeds Internet browser software
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Average Productivity Growth PeriodPer Year (Percent) 1955-19712.838 1972-19951.665 1996-20052.957 Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics Productivity Growth in the USA
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Economists refer to the 1972-95 period as “the big slowdown”
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1.Tax credits to provide incentives for private research and development 2.Give incentives to the pursuit of careers in science and engineering 3.Public funding of R & D 4.Legal protections of intellectual property rights— e.g., issuance of patents.
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Research and Development All other goods 0 A B R & D absorbs scarce resources
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