1. Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007 Philip Mote, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Olympia, WA October 2, 2007

2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

4. 44

5. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.s html

7. Heavy November rains

13. Daily Temperatures +0.49ºC +1.23ºC

14. 2006-07 snow pack

16. Oct 1 estimated soil moisture percentiles Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington. edu/forecast/monitor Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington. edu/forecast/monitor

17. Last year’s outlook a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above- average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of- season snow pack

18. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND precip JFM precip http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

19. Precip: observed

20. http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 OND temperature JFM temperature

21. Temperature: observed

22. 2222 This year…

23. La Niña arriving Tropical ocean temperatures have slid into La Niña territory

24. Equatorial temperature anomaly

25. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summaries

26. Average La Niña winter precip: 1916- 2003 http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

27. PDO forecast

28. PDO forecast: drifting toward cool http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

29. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades Current forecasts rate La Niña as most likely situation for 2007-08 PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades

30. Wet Autumn

32. Winter… possibly coolest in years, but still only “EC”

33. Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures

34. The Bottom line moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… Persistent warming trends moderate La Niña underway tilts the odds toward cool/wet, better-than-average snowpack Additional influence from PDO might come too late to offset another factor… Persistent warming trends See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov