1. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 1 4G Radio Developments without Europe? Arnd Weber, Bernd Wingert ITAS, Karlsruhe Research Centre (Germany) Erik Bohlin, Sven Lindmark Vinnova, Gothenburg (Sweden)

2. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 2 Introduction Research project: „The Future of Mobile Communications in the EU: Assessing the Potential of 4G“ u Sponsored by EU (JRC/IPTS) in 2003 (Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman) u Partners Vinnova, ITAS, TNO

3. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 3 Overview 1.Objectives 2.Project Approach 3.US 4.China 5.Japan 6.Asia 7.Europe 8.Summary of Analysis 9.Conclusions

4. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 4 1. Objectives Questions raised by European Commission in 2003 u 4G technologies emerging in the US and in Asia a threat? u 4G in two senses: u Linear succession, after 3G u Immediate deployment, starting with Wi-Fi u Identify policy options

5. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 5 2. Project Approach Analysis of u Advanced use of 2.5 and 3G u Scenarios and roadmaps towards 4G u State of the art and research By means of u Desk research u Gathering of expert views

6. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 6 3. US u Dynamics of WLAN not over, cf. Intel, Flarion, etc. u Licensed, unlicensed u Indoor, outdoor u FCC supportive for flexibilisation, outdoor use = „Immediate“ 4G, possibly disruptive

7. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 7 4. China u Large mobile market u Aim at leadership in mobile area u Industry policy u Low cost production Haier Elitek

8. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 8 5. Japan u Best handsets u Infrastructure competition: u PHS (real flatrate) u PDC u WCDMA u Cdma2000 (cheapest) u Progress towards TD-SCDMA, Flash-OFDM u Operator control of user interface u Aim at cheaper costs for 3.5G, 4G (wireless VoIP ?) More on Tuesday, session 4.5, starting 11:00

9. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 9 6. Asia u Korea: 4 G ambitions u Co-operation on 4G between CN, K, J discussed u India leap-frogging?

10. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 10 7. Europe u Low use of mobile Internet u Not leading with handset features u Good radio research, but deployment? u UMTS license holder protection

11. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 11 8. Summary of Analysis u US leading with potentially disruptive WLANs u Asian players aim at leading with 4G-technologies u Equipment built cheaply in Asia = These markets develop, supported by spectrum regulation = Europe runs risk of falling behind

12. 4G, Weber, FZK ITAS, ITS Berlin 2004 12 9. Conclusion for Europe 4G acknowledged topic Allow for alternatives to UMTS? Cf. Bohlin et al. (Rodriguez et al. eds.): Future of Mobile Communications... Seville 2004. www.jrc.es - or check www.itas.fzk.de -