1. A real change on US-Mexico migration patterns? Evidence from four Mexican surveys Cristóbal MENDOZA cmp@xanum.uam.mx cristobalmendozaperez@yahoo.com.mx

2. Outline The debate on changes and continuities in the literature. The numbers in the 1990s. Geographical patterns: From Western states to everywhere. Female migration: Flows dominated by men, stocks organised by women.

3. Data Four representative surveys at national and state level: 1992 and 1997 ENADID (Encuesta Nacional de la Dinámica Demográfica), plus the 2000 Census and the 1995 Register (Conteo) which were accompanied with surveys. The four surveys have a comparative set of questions on migration. The household head is asked if any member of the household has migrated to the USA in the five years prior the survey

4. Socio-demographic literature: Changes in US-Mexico migration patterns Mexican migrants increasingly decide to stay for longer periods (or even to stay permanently) in the USA. Their geographical origin is more heterogeneous. More migrants come from cities and outside the traditional Western Mexico area. Migrants have more years of formal education. Mexican outflows to the USA are increasingly composed of women and families (instead of single men).

5. Socio-demographic literature: Continuities in US-Mexico migration patterns No radical changes in the origin of migrants. The traditional area of migration still sends at least a third of the total. Rural areas are over-represented. Migration is less selective. This is to say that migration expands to people with less years of former education. The percentage of men remains high in all the cohorts.

6. Migration trends As an average, 300,000 people left Mexico to the USA annually in the period 1995-2000. About 17% of the emigrants returned to Mexico in 1995-2000. This percentage has decreased over time. Less people migrate, more people stay. GrossReturnNet Migration 1987-92335,039156,156178,883 1990-95350,45380,478269,975 1992-97361,852122,889238,963 1995-00318,59355,572263,021

7. Mexico-USA migration, by sex The percentage of women in relative numbers has not changed substantially throughout the 90s. Women remains about the 25-30% of the total. MenWomen% M% W 1987-92247,41187,62873.926.1 1990-95243,098107,35569.430.6 1992-97273,26388,58975.524.5 1995-00237,66180,93274.625.4

8. Geographical patterns

9. Female migration, by large geographical regions (%) The border region is by far the main sending area of women migrants to the USA in relative terms. By contrast, women do not constitute more than 25% of the total flow from the Western traditional area

10. International rural emigrants in Michoacan and Veracruz (%) Rural emigrants are over-represented in all periods and in both states, compared to the their rural-urban composition in 2000. No differences can be seen between both states (apart from the period 1990-95)

11. Rural men, urban women Women in total out-flows by locality of origin (%) The bigger the size of the locality of origin, the larger the number of female migrants in the total flow. 1987-921990-951992-971995-00 Rural20.0622.4018.4418.81 Towns26.7530.1422.6024.04 Medium cities29.6235.0027.0327.02 Large cities31.1341.3633.5934.15

12. Average age of male and female migrants. Older men, younger women Age differences may reflect how the marriage market works and somehow confirm traditional views of women following men in international migration.

13. Conclusions Mexico-USA migration is mainly composed by men, with rural localities being over-represented in the total. Migration flows are not more diverse as a consequence of a longer migration history (as seen in Western Mexico). Return migration is less relevant at the end of the 1990s. This is to say that a larger number of immigrants decide to stay. No relevant differences are observed by sex. Origin and age makes the difference. Cities and the border are the main sending area for women, in relative terms. Younger women are more likely to emigrate.