1. Inference for Simple Regression Social Research Methods 2109 & 6507 Spring 2006 March 15, 16, 2006

2. Regression Equation Equation of a regression line: (y_hat) = α +βx y = α +βx + ε y = dependent variable x = independent variable β = slope = predicted change in y with a one unit change in x α= intercept = predicted value of y when x is 0 y_hat = predicted value of dependent variable

3. 補充 : Proportional Reduction of Error (PRE)( 消減錯誤的比例 ) PRE measures compare the errors of predictions under different prediction rules; contrasts a naïve to sophisticated rule R 2 is a PRE measure Naïve rule = predict y_bar Sophisticated rule = predict y_hat R 2 measures reduction in predictive error from using regression predictions as contrasted to predicting the mean of y

4. Example: SPSS Regression Procedures and Output To get a scatterplot (): 統計圖 (G) → 散佈圖 (S) → 簡單 → 定義（選 x 及 y ） To get a correlation coefficient: 分析 (A) → 相關 (C) → 雙變量 To perform simple regression 分析 (A) → 回歸方法 (R) → 線性 (L) （選 x 及 y ） （還可選擇儲存預測值及殘差）

5. SPSS Example: Infant mortality vs. Female Literacy, 1995 UN Data

6. Example: correlation between infant mortality and female literacy

7. Regression: infant mortality vs. female literacy, 1995 UN Data

8. Diagnosis: a residual plot

9. Global test--F 檢定 : 檢定迴歸方程式 有無解釋能力 ( β= 0 )

11. The regression model ( 迴歸模型 ) Note: the slope and intercept of the regression line are statistics (i.e., from the sample data). To do inference, we have to think of α and β as estimates of unknown parameters.

12. Regression as conditional means Ways to think about regression: 1.Straight-line description of association 2.Prediction 3.Conditional means ( 條件平均數 ) Conditional mean: a mean computed conditional on the value of another variable Regression line predicts the conditional mean of y given x

13. Assumptions for regression inference Think about there as being a population or “true” regression line Assumptions: For any fixed value of x, the response (y) varies according to a normal distribution. Repeated responses y are independent of each other. μ y = α +βx (means of y conditional on x fall in a straight line) The standard deviation of y (call it σ) for each value of x is the same. The value of σ is unknown.

14. “True” regression line

15. Inference for regression Population regression line: μ y = α +βx estimated from sample: (y_hat) = a + bx b is an unbiased estimator ( 不偏估計式 )of the true slope β, and a is an unbiased estimator of the true intercept α

16. Sampling distribution of a (intercept) and b (slope) Mean of the sampling distribution of a is α Mean of the sampling distribution of b is β

17. Sampling distribution of a (intercept) and b (slope) Mean of the sampling distribution of a is α Mean of the sampling distribution of b is β The standard error of a and b are related to the amount of spread about the regression line (σ) Normal sampling distributions; with σ estimated use t-distribution for inference

18. The standard error of the least-squares line Estimate σ (spread about the regression line using residuals from the regression) recall that residual = (y –y_hat) Estimate the population standard deviation about the regression line (σ) using the sample estimates

19. Estimate σ from sample data

20. Standard Error of Slope (b) The standard error of the slope has a sampling distribution given by: Small standard errors of b means our estimate of b is a precise estimate of SE b is directly related to s; inversely related to sample size (n) and S x

21. Confidence Interval for regression slope A level C confidence interval for the slope of “true” regression line β is b ± t * SE b Where t* is the upper (1-C)/2 critical value from the t distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom To test the hypothesis H 0 : β= 0, compute the t statistic: t = b/ SE b In terms of a random variable having the t,n-2 distribution

22. Significance Tests for the slope Test hypotheses about the slope of β. Usually: H 0 : β= 0 (no linear relationship between the independent and dependent variable) Alternatives: H A : β ＞ 0 or H A : β ＜ 0 or H A : β ≠ 0

24. Statistical inference for intercept We could also do statistical inference for the regression intercept, α Possible hypotheses: H 0 : α = 0 H A : α≠ 0 t-test based on a, very similar to prior t-tests we have done For most substantive applications, interested in slope (β), not usually interested in α

25. Regression: infant mortality vs. female literacy, 1995 UN Data

26. Hypothesis test example 大華正在分析教育成就的世代差異，他蒐集到 117 組父子教 育程度的資料。父親的教育程度是自變項，兒子的教育 程度是依變項。他的迴歸公式是： y_hat = 0.2915*x +10.25 迴歸斜率的標準誤差 (standard error) 是 : 0.10 1. 在 α=0.05 ，大華可得出父親與兒子的教育程度是有關連 的嗎？ 2. 對所有父親的教育程度是大學畢業的男孩而言，這些男 孩的平均教育程度預測值是多少？ 3. 有一男孩的父親教育程度是大學畢業，預測這男孩將來 的教育程度會是多少？