1. Undergraduate Admissions in a Changing Market A level and Curriculum Reform – HE response James Seymour Director of UK Recruitment & Outreach Aston University j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk

2. 2014 entry – what did we learn? ► Entry to UK Universities up by 3% in 2014 to record levels ► Student Number Control: no evidence of “BBB-ABB cliff edge” ► Most UK Universities relaxed entry grades on results day ► Increased use of Clearing by nearly all, inc Russell Group ► Some Universities making unconditional offers before results day ► Scholarships proved popular and awareness increased ► Competition increasing, not for places but for students ► Bounce-Back: UCAS applications up again in 2015 (2%), Aston up 19%

3. National UCAS applications 2013-2015 entry

4. 2014 entry – what did we learn? ► Entry to UK Universities up by 3% in 2014 to record levels ► Student Number Control: no evidence of “BBB-ABB cliff edge” ► Most UK Universities relaxed entry grades on results day ► Increased use of Clearing by nearly all of the Russell Group ► Some Universities making unconditional offers before results day ► Scholarships proved popular and awareness increased ► Competition increasing, not for places but for students ► 2014: Aston and King’s enrolled more students than 2011 12 13 ► Bounce-Back: UCAS applications steady again in 2015

5. ABB and SNC – Aston University position and response – 2014 50%+ of Aston students at ABB+ or equivalent in 2013 1,400 “core” places (SNC) in 2014 – Aston awarded additional places Required c1,000 students with ABB+ or equivalent BTEC – all Aston students have required DDD+ since 2010 AAB+ Aston Excellence Scholarships irrespective of family income (£4,000 over 4 years inc placement year) Placement year and other unique Aston qualities Guaranteed accommodation on campus Investment in staff and facilities to meet demand from increased numbers of students Student Satisfaction in UK top quartile at 89% (2013 and 2014) 2015 UCAS applications up 17% on 2014, 40% on 2012

6. ABB and SNC – Aston University position and response – 2014 50%+ of Aston students at ABB+ or equivalent in 2013 1,400 “core” places (SNC) in 2014 – Aston awarded additional places Required c1,000 students with ABB+ or equivalent BTEC – all Aston students have required DDD+ since 2010 AAB+ Aston Excellence Scholarships irrespective of family income (£4,000 over 4 years inc placement year) Placement year and other unique Aston qualities Guaranteed accommodation on campus Investment in staff and facilities to meet demand from increased numbers of students Student Satisfaction in UK top quartile at 89% (2013 and 2014) 2015 UCAS applications up 17% on 2014, 40% on 2012

7. Offer Making – more and more quickly Cap lifted for 2015 entry – no more ABB student number controls Based on predicted grades – only c10-15% predicted correctly across their base three A-level subjects Exam Boards – will % of A/B Grades decline again in 2015, 2016, 2017? Make more offers in case of increased/perceived competition? Will number of BTEC DDM+ or equivalent grades continue to increase as A level grades decline?

8. They (and we) want you…

9. Will “popular” Universities expand in 2015- 17? Limiting Factors still include: Lab/Seminar room space, space in residences, staff student ratios, professional accreditation, National Student Survey/student experience, % of offers made/applications received Medicine, Dentistry, NHS (Nursing etc),Teaching not affected – still subject to Student Number Controls “Cambridge University will be able to enrol more bright students under government plans” Guardian

10. Will “popular” Universities continue to expand? Balancing act of higher and lower tariff/grade candidates amongst Universities – impact on league tables and retention v income Widening Participation/OFFA targets and “Fair Access” ABB+ abolished in 2015 according to Chancellor statement. NOT wise to wait and try and get in next year Unintended/intended consequences already massive – but not fully realised until 2015-17. New PGT loans system for some “underrepresented” UK/EU students from 2016, scholarships in 2015

11. Applicant Strategy from 2016 – my advice Paperless admissions from 2013 – avoid the Christmas/Jan rush No more formal January exams Add choice 4-5 later but get top 3 in by November! Admissions and recruitment are more closely linked More sophisticated, personal comms with applicants We still use email even if they don’t! UCAS is a personal, closed system Clearing/adjustment a strategic decision, not a distressed purchase. Encourage points/grades spread on future UCAS choices x1 aspirational/worth a gamble x3 on or close to realistic predictions x1 good fall-back choice with lower grades

12. 2015-2019 entry - what might change Cap on places will be lifted, no ABB+/DDM student number controls More unconditional offers and related schemes More direct applications? Will “typical offers” fall back - eg from AAB to ABB or ABB-BBB etc Widen the applicant pool Uncertainty over curriculum reform Recognition of lower grades but high ability GCSE grade requirements Will Universities expand in a falling demographic trend to 2020? Scholarships may reduce for some and increase for others NOT wise to hold back on a first choice place in 2015, 2016

13. UCAS entry tariff very important in rankings… top 6 factors represent 78% of the scores across all 4 rankings Top 6

14. Realistic and positive…. Vast majority get 4 or more offers (80% plus) Applications per place often quoted – don’t forget students are making 4 other applications. The debate dominated by a few thousand applications for a small number of highly selective courses - less than 2% of total. Applications for Medicine and Dentistry down 10% in 2015 Check entry requirements and specific requirements (eg A/AS/BTEC/GCSE/IB etc) eg: Aston: 2015 entry: 15,500 applications for 2,700 places: c80% of applicants received offers. Average entry grade: ABB- BBB from best 3 A levels, D*DD at BTEC (380 UCAS Points)

15. Gazing into the crystal ball…. A-level, BTEC and GCSE reform General Election May 2015 Delay some reform decisions? Lifting of the fees cap …. or reduction in fees, return to cap on places? Improved position for PGT/masters funding for UK students? More integrated masters/enhanced first degrees UCAS Tariff reform Future direction of HEFCE, BIS, OFFA, DfE

16. OFFA – Office for Fair Access Future of OFFA – Office for Fair Access - regulator Access Agreements a key element of University planning 2015-2020 strategic plan sets out challenging targets Focus on: Greater challenge/stretch for HEIs Whole University approach to Access, Progression, Success Access to competitive subjects/Universities Access to Medicine Care leavers and young carers Rural/coastal, white working class boys

17. The Aston Applicant Pool 15,500 applications, c2,700 places in 2015 80% made conditional offers 19% increase in 2015, 50% more applications than 2012 70% on sandwich courses, placement years, year abroad Long standing commitment to graduate employment success Campus University, 10,000 students, “Human scale” Campus accommodation guarantee, Birmingham on the up! Challenging but realistic entry requirements 20% full or mixed BTEC entry (D*DD average) Entry requirements: BBB-AAB Average A level on entry: ABB-BBB, 380 UCAS points A*A*A*-BCC range accepted in 2014 depending on the subject

18. Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position Aston statement sent to Heads and Principals in October 2014 3 or 4 full A levels AS levels in Y12 GCSE expectations from 2017 Mix of old and new subjects Vocational Qualifications and Mix Core Maths (will generate UCAS points) EPQ (currently 70 UCAS points) Practical endorsement/certificate - we will expect this Typical offers UCAS reference – brief statement We have been here before – Curriculum 2000… Keen to hear your views

19. Curriculum Reform

20. Gazing into the crystal ball…. A-level and GCSE reform www.aston.ac.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=225523 www.kcl.ac.uk/study/ug/admissions/Policies-and- Guidance/Curriculum-reform-in-England.pdf General Election …..May 2015 Reversal of reform decisions? Lifting of the fees cap …. or reduction in fees? Improved position for PGT funding for WP students? UCAS Tariff reform

21. Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position

22. Aston statement sent to Heads and Principals in October 2014 3 or 4 full A levels AS levels in Y12 GCSE expectations Mix of old and new subjects Vocational Quals and Mixes Core Maths EPQ Typical offers Keen to hear your views

23. Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position An opportunity to look again - what we do, why we do it… What do we accept now, what are the benefits of the reforms Keep it simple Flexible, open, consultative with our feeder schools/colleges Need to protect/preserve our A level/academic intake Subject specs and curriculum reforms may benefit our students Impact of Core Maths, EPQ Reduction in “Strategic failure” Developing our curriculum 2016-2022 Assessment/coursework mix Modules/retakes January exams and semesters More time for teaching First year transition/retention Communicating with our graduate employers/placement employers on A level, BTEC, GCSE

24. Unconditional Offers and other strategies Search on Twitter for “Unconditional Offer” Some a straight U offer with no conditions before results Others a Scheme where a C offer becomes a U offer if the student goes Firm Choice Originally mainly for AAA predicted candidates/AS grades but some far lower or with no link to predictions 2 - 3 Universities in 2013 20+ in 2014 30+ in 2015? Some HEIs may change offers retrospectively in Feb-March Will PQA happen after all by accident?

25. Unconditional Offers – Potential negatives Confusion and aspiration Mixed messages Perceived fairness Class/school dynamics Adjustment eligible? Predicted grades accurate? What do schools/teachers think? Graduate prospects/employers? What about BTEC and other quals? Could save the AS level when A level reforms come in… Aims to genuinely reward potential New addition to the “offer library” but not a blanket policy Students and parents seem to like them if they get them!

26. Unconditional Offers – my advice Don’t panic and accept a place too soon – often a May/April deadline – wait and look at other options It’s only 5% or less of the pool. UCAS:1.4% of all offers made Don’t assume it will proliferate again in 2016 Don’t assume you/they will get one in 2016 Be careful on social media - instagram etc AS grades may be especially important for 2016 - may encourage some students to work harder for AS in 2015 Clarification from HEIs on “conditions” and reality check Await responses and reactions from other offers Don’t switch off in 2015, 2016, 2017! Scholarships and awards AAA-AAB predicted students achieving ABB would have been admitted anyway?

27. Unconditional Offers – a small snapshot of what students actually achieved… 2014 entry: also applied to Aston and received Conditional offer but choose University A/B/C with an Unconditional Scheme University A, High GCSEs and A High A level predictions - 95% achieved at or close to the offer – we would have taken them! University B, Unconditional Offer Scheme based on BBB predictions – 80%+ achieved below BBB, most well below – we would not have taken them. BTEC and/or BTEC A level mix – all achieved the BTEC grade but many then missed the A level grade University C (unconditional offer with no conditions) – all achieved at or close to the stated typical offer (v small numbers at top end of grades) Aston “lost” c120 students out of 2,500 firm acceptances 2014

28. Thanks for listening and keep in touch Any questions or comments? j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk 21 st annual Aston Admissions Conference for Teachers and Advisers: 7 th January 2016: www.aston.ac.uk/teacherswww.aston.ac.uk/teachers Open Day: Sat 13 th June 2015 Aston University Services for Schools and Colleges: www.aston.ac.uk/schliaison

29. “….rigorous academic standards and graduates who are among the most sought-after in the UK….” Sunday Times “Aston is a small university with a big reputation. It was only when I started looking for a graduate job that I realised how true this is – every company I spoke to had hired Aston graduates in the past….” Joe Ingram, Aston Graduate, now working in New York. Thanks for listening and best of luck with your applications and exams. j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk