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Tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION.

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Presentation on theme: "Tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION."— Presentation transcript:

1 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL AND BASIC TREND IDENTIFICATION

2 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS DIFFERENT TYPE OF TRENDS You need to ride a trend until the weight of the evidence showed that it has reversed. WHAT IS A TREND ?

3 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS 2000

4 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE LONGER A TREND HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE, THE GREATER THE IMPLICATIONS OF ITS REVERSALS ONCE A SIGNAL HAS BEEN GIVEN.

5 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS Because they last so long, SECULAR trends do not turn around that often

6 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS Primary trends are usually made of bull and bear markets

7 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS Secular trends are made of several bull and bear primary trends

8 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS INVESTORS SHOULD ALWAYS POSITION THEIR ASSETS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN OR PRIMARY TREND. SHORT-TERM TRADERS SHOULD ALWAYS TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE PRIMARY TREND. MOST LOSING TRADES ARE POSITIONED AGAINST THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND.

9 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bear market rallies are very unpredictable and hard to trade !

10 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS CLEAR DOWN-TREND UNPREDICTABLE RETRACEMENTS CLEAR UP-TREND

11 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE MARKET CYCLE MODEL The Long Term (LT) Cycle The Intermediate Cycle The Short-Term (ST) Cycle

12 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PRIMARY TREND

13 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS INTERMEDIATE TREND 6 WEEKS – 9 MONTHS

14 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PRIMARY AND INTERMEDIATE TREND INTERACTION

15 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS MARKET CYCLE MODEL

16 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS THE LONGER THE TREND, THE EASIEST IT IS TO IDENTIFY PRICES ARE AFFECTED BY CONFLUENCE OF TRENDS

17 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS One of the principle building blocks in technical analysisis the idea that prices do not move up or down in straight lines, but experience zig-zag movements

18 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PEAK THROUGH 1 2 PEAK & THROUGH

19 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PEAK THROUGH 1 2 LOWER PEAK & EQUAL THROUGH…

20 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PEAK THROUGH 1 2 LOWER PEAK &LOWER THROUGH CHANGE IN TREND

21 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS PEAK AND THROUGH DILEMNA

22 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS

23 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS

24 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS

25 tarek AMYUNITECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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