1. NOAA National Ocean Service NOS Coastal Ocean Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) Ed Myers NOAA/NOS Office of Coast Survey, Coast Survey Development Laboratory 2-3 December 2014 NCEP Production Suite Review

2. NOAA National Ocean Service NOS’ Operational Coastal Modeling  Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Laboratory – Focused on research and development – POCs: frank.aikman@noaa.gov, edward.myers@noaa.gov  Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services / Oceanographic Division – Focused on transition, operations, and Product delivery and services – POC: aijun.zhang@noaa.gov  Work with NCEP, particularly NCO and EMC, on operations  Collaboration with academic developers of FVCOM, ROMS, and ADCIRC models 2 http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

3. NOAA National Ocean Service COVERAGE AND STATUS OF NOS OFS 15 OFS are currently in operations

4. NOAA National Ocean Service FY14 Implementation: San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System Resolution: 20 m – 1.6 km 20 Sigma Vertical Layers

5. NOAA National Ocean Service NWGOFS NEGOFS NGOFS Coastal/Shelf Models (Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay models) Nested NWGOFS and NEGOFS (high- resolution to resolve navigational needs) NGOFS NCEP’s G-RTOFS FY14 Implementation: Nested Operational Forecast Systems for the Gulf of Mexico Resolution: 60 m – 3.5 km 20 Sigma Vertical Layers Resolution: 45 m – 2.2 km 20 Sigma Vertical Layers

6. NOAA National Ocean Service Forcing Data Used by NOS OFS (Obtained from WCOSS Data Tank) CYCLESURFACE FORCINGOCEAN BOUNDARY CONDITIONS RIVER FORCING NOWCASTREAL-TIME Observations NAM4/NAM/GFS RTMA GRTOFS/HYCOM ETSS USGS River real – time discharge observations FORECASTNAM4/NAM/GFS NDFD GRTOFS/HYCOM ETSS Persistence of river observations NWS/RFC AHPS River Forecasts (in future) Black: Primary Forcing; Blue: Backup Forcing; Red: Future plan

7. NOAA National Ocean Service Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) Single common framework for all OFSs Facilitate ease of operations and interoperability Minimize redundant efforts and ensure a high time-and-cost efficiency for OFS development, transition, and O&M Standard tools for data handling & maintenance Standard tools for graphics and web products Standard skill assessment and evaluation tools Allow multiple ocean models: FVCOMROMS ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, POM, ROMS, SELFE * ROMS and FVCOM community models are selected COMF is a set of standards and common tools to develop, operate, and assess NOS OFS. It is standardized for any model and any domain

8. NOAA National Ocean Service Product Deliverables 1. Model Output: NCEP FTP Server - /pub/data/nccfs/com/nos/prod CO-OPS THREDDS: http://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.htmlhttp://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.html 1)Station/point NetCDF file (6 minute output) model nowcast and forecast guidance at selected locations for water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, surface winds 2)Gridded/field model output NetCDF file (hourly output) 2-D water levels and surface winds 3-D currents, temperature and salinity for every model node or element. 3)SHEF water level forecast guidance at specific locations (30-min output) 2. Graphics Products: Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast guidance) of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations (all PORTS and NWLON stations included) Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, water temperature, salinity, and surface winds

9. NOAA National Ocean Service Monthly Uncertainty Report (SFBOFS) RMSE of Water Temperature Forecasts

10. NOAA National Ocean Service Monthly Model Use Statistics (Great Lakes) Monthly Web Hits

11. NOAA National Ocean Service Requirements of NOS OFS  Support of safe & efficient navigation  harbor/ports management  Water levels for under-keel clearance  Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability  Emergency response Oil spill Search & Rescue Homeland Security  For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications Salinity SST

12. NOAA National Ocean Service Applications OF NOS OFS  Dynamic Under Keel Clearance – Columbia River  Water levels for under-keel clearance  Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability  Transit Time App (Galveston Bay) Mobile App provide pilots with real-time predictions of water levels and currents Improve navigational safety  Tampa Bay Marine Channels Forecast Product Integrated Data and Forecast Products One-Stop Web products

13. NOAA National Ocean Service CHALLENGES  Better understanding in physical mixing process  Accuracy of Forcing Conditions  Algorithm of heat flux calculation near coast, Surface forcing conditions along boundaries of land and waters  Fresh Water inputs  Sparseness and Quality of observations for Data Assimilation and model assessment  Lack of currents, T & S real-time observations, vertical profiles  Less observations in offshore waters  Bad quality of salinity observations  Standard format for ocean models  Standard output format and CF compliant  Standard variable names for all ocean models  On standard grids (e.g. AWIPS grid) – lose high-resolution of native ocean grids

14. LESSONS LEARNED  Standardized Ocean Models – Critical for O&M A standard shared COMF is critical Community-based models Collaborate with model developers Take advantage of scientific and technological progresses from academic and research community  End-Users engagement to improve forecast products Let users be involved from the beginning, and understand users’ needs (user-driven) Deliver model data in standard format at one data portal Produce user-friendly products  Reliability Always prepare backup plans 7x24 O&M and User services support Disseminate reliable and timely products

15. NOAA National Ocean Service Future Planned Implementations NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP – FY15: Lake Erie OFS (LEOFS) upgraded to FVCOM – FY16: Cook Inlet (CIOFS), Lake Michigan (LMOFS) – FY17: Gulf of Maine OFS (GoMOFS), Huron-Erie Corridor – FY18: West Coast OFS (WCOFS), Lake Superior OFS (LSOFS) – FY19: Lake Ontario OFS (LOOFS) Inundation – FY16: Sandy Supplemental: Development and Transition of ADCIRC Surge Ensemble for Atlantic Tropical and Extratropical Inundation 15

16. 16 Upgrade ocean model (ROMS) to the latest ROMS3.7 Fix bugs Improve model reliability Improve capabilities of debugging Update NOS shared COMF: O&M single version of shared COMF Make O&M and updates more efficient and easy Improve Salinity Forecasts FY15 Implementation: Upgrade CBOFS, DBOFS, and TBOFS

17. 17 New LEOFS: FVCOM with 100m-2.5 km horizontal resolution, 21 vertical levels Part of an Upgrade of GLOFS to FVCOM Migrate GLERL’s FVCOM-based forecast system for Lake Erie to NOS & WCOSS Modify NOS HPC-COMF to support GLOFS Configuration: o 4 forecasts/day, forecast horizon to 120 hrs o nowcast cycle forcing: Surface met analyses o forecast cycle forcing: NDFD 2.5km Benefits to Users: Higher horizontal & vertical resolution Better predictions of subsurface temperatures Longer forecast horizon to support: o NWS/WFOs Coastal Flood Operations o NOS HABS Forecast Operations Operational Implementation: Q4 FY15 Existing LEOFS: POM with 5km horizontal resolution, 11 vertical levels FY15 Implementation: Upgrade Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS)

18. ROMS Grid has 724 x 1044 points Extra resolution in Kachemak Bay, upper CI, Knik and Turnagain Arms Addressing model sensitivity to wetting/drying in upper Cook Inlet Does not include ice or sediment dynamics Operational implementation in FY16 18 FY16 Implementation: Cook Inlet Operational Forecast System (CIOFS)

19. FY17 Implementation: Operational Forecast Systems for Gulf of Maine (GoMOFS) Phase I: Regional grid o ROMS o 1173 x 777 (~700m resolution) o Experimental operational runs by summer 2015 o Support HAB forecast model 19 Red squares: Highlights of ports/navigation channels to be resolved Boston Harbor Portsmouth, NH Portland, ME Searsport &Bangor, ME Eastport, ME Bath, ME Phase II: Nested high-resolution grids o Operational by FY18 Q1

20. FY18 Implementation: West Coast Operational Forecast System (WCOFS) 3-year project FY15-FY17 Dr. Alex Kurapov, Oregon State University, NOAA (IPA) ROMS Data assimilation (DA) using results/recommendations from IOOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT) project. Non-DA WCOFS tested in real-time first DA WCOFS tested in real-time by end of project in FY17 Assimilate along-track altimetry, AVHRR, GOES SST, HF radar, IOOS data; currently evaluating full suite of data to be included. 20

21. Support for NOAA’s Ecological Forecasting Ecological Forecasting Roadmap: Coordination with the HAB, Hypoxia, Pathogens, Infrastructure and Process teams GoMOFS to be linked to HAB model through implementation in ROMS IOOS COMT o Chesapeake Bay hypoxia o Hypoxia models for the Northern Gulf of Mexico Chesapeake Bay Vibrio pathogens Lake Erie HAB Evaluating how WCOFS can help West Coast ecological forecasting needs 21 From Ruoying He, Dennis J. McGillicuddy Jr., Bruce A. Keafer, and Donald M. Anderson, 2008. “Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine: 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling” Simulated surface cell concentration map, Alexandrium fundyense

22. Sea Nettle Forecast http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SeaNettles/prob/SeaNettles.shtml http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SeaNettles/prob/SeaNettles.shtml Salinity SST Likelihood of Chrysaora Habitat Model 1.CBOFS surface salinity and temperature fields 2.Geo-reference salinity and SST fields 3.Apply habitat model 4.Generate image illustrating the probable distribution of Chrysaora

23. Storm Surge Modeling Efforts Using ADCIRC model for extratropical (e.g., nor’easter) and tropical (e.g., hurricane) – State of the art model in development and use by academia, private industry, USACE, FEMA, Navy – Uses large scale unstructured triangular grids with efficient localized resolution – Can combine surge, tides, rivers and wave input – Uses latest modeling physics – Surge model upgrades coordinated with NWS (e.g., Sandy Supplemental) to augment probabilistic approach with faster, simpler SLOSH model 23

24. Computes ET surge and tides for forecasting and coupling to NWS’ WAVEWATCHIII® wave model Coastal resolution averages 3 km Hourly output of 6 hr nowcast + 180 hr forecast 4X per day East Coast operational in 2012 Pacific model operational in FY14 Q3 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/ Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) 24

25. Sandy Supplemental: ADCIRC Ensemble Surge Prediction Development of operational ensemble of ADCIRC surge+tide predictions of coastal inundation for TC and ET storms Predict tropical and extratropical inundation –TC ensemble members based on track perturbation Experimental in FY15, operational in FY16 25

26. Future Direction CSDL and CO-OPS are meeting on December 4 th and January 9 th to evaluate issues that need to be addressed for OFS modeling and determine a new 5-year plan Issues to be discussed include: o How to best address operational issues with existing OFS o Regional-to-local modeling strategy o Evaluate infrastructure and resources needed to address emerging applications such as ecological forecasting and data assimilation o Upgrade schedule for new versions of ROMS, FVCOM, ADCIRC o Balance between needed upgrades to existing OFS and development of OFS in new regions 26

27. NOAA National Ocean Service THANKS and QUESTIONS CO-OPS OFS Web Site http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html