1. Metropolitan GHG Target Rule Review March 12, 2015 Land Conservation and Development Commission

2. Target Rule (660-044) - - By June 2015 - - Evaluate target rule - - Decide whether revisions to targets are “warranted” March 2015Target Rule Review

3. For year 2035 “light vehicle travel in metropolitan areas” Per capita above and beyond fleet, fuels & technology Background Metropolitan GHG Targets (HB 2001/ SB 1059 – 2009-2010) March 2015Target Rule Review

4. Background State Greenhouse Gas Goal (HB 3543 – 2007) by 2050: 75% below 1990 levels March 2015Target Rule Review

5. Evaluation Factors Results of scenario planning Results of scenario planning New information about future light vehicle emissions New information about future light vehicle emissions State plans to reduce GHG emissions State plans to reduce GHG emissions Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) Changes in metropolitan area population, development, boundaries Changes in metropolitan area population, development, boundaries Local efforts to reduce GHG emissions Local efforts to reduce GHG emissions Input from local governments, MPOs Input from local governments, MPOs Land use feasibility/ economic studies Land use feasibility/ economic studies State support for scenario planning State support for scenario planning Emissions from travel from outside MPOs Emissions from travel from outside MPOs March 2015Target Rule Review

6. Results of Scenario Planning March 2015Target Rule Review

7. Scenario Planning Results Targets are achievable Metro –29% reduction Metro –29% reduction Central Lane – 14% reduction Central Lane – 14% reduction Corvallis – 18% reduction Corvallis – 18% reduction March 2015Target Rule Review

8. Scenario Planning Results What will it take? A comprehensive, coordinated set of actions that reduce the need for driving More transit More transit Pricing– shift to pay by the mile road user fees and PAYD insurance Pricing– shift to pay by the mile road user fees and PAYD insurance Improved infrastructure for biking, walking Improved infrastructure for biking, walking Compact, mixed use development Compact, mixed use development Parking management Parking management Incentives – employee commute options, eco-driving Incentives – employee commute options, eco-driving March 2015Target Rule Review

9. Scenario Planning Results What will it take? Key land use/transportation actions Limited UGB expansion – 15% rate of population growth Limited UGB expansion – 15% rate of population growth More mixed use development - 30% of households More mixed use development - 30% of households Much more transit – 2 to 4x current service levels Much more transit – 2 to 4x current service levels More investments in walking/cycling infrastructure More investments in walking/cycling infrastructure Expanded transportation options/ incentives, commute options - 30% of employees, residents Expanded transportation options/ incentives, commute options - 30% of employees, residents Parking management Parking management Limited roadway expansion Limited roadway expansion March 2015Target Rule Review

10. Scenario Planning Results What will it take? Supporting state actions Pay-as-you-drive insurance Pay-as-you-drive insurance Funding for transit Funding for transit Support for transportation options Support for transportation options Incentives – employee commute options, eco-driving Incentives – employee commute options, eco-drivingStatus Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) identifies key actions, calls for further study Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) identifies key actions, calls for further study ODOT working on short-term implementation plan ODOT working on short-term implementation plan March 2015Target Rule Review

11. Scenario Planning Results What will it take? Funding New investments are needed - Mostly transit - but also walking, biking and new programs to support transportation options - Expanded options are needed to realize potential from more compact, mixed use development March 2015Target Rule Review

12. Scenario Planning Results Actions that reduce GHG have other important benefits Reduced household transportation and energy costs, Improved air quality Improved public health Reduced congestion March 2015Target Rule Review

13. New Information about Technology, Fleet and Fuels March 2015Target Rule Review Expected changes in vehicle technology, fleet and fuels are key to reducing GHG Emissions

14. New Information Fuel Economy/Vehicle Technology Target RuleNew InformationOn Track? Auto: 68 mpg Feds adopt new motor vehicle standards in 2012 DEQ adopts California’s updated zero emission vehicle (ZEV) rules in 2013 Yes March 2015Target Rule Review

15. New Information Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Target RuleNew InformationOn Track? 8% of new car sales by 2035 STS anticipates much more rapid adoption of EV and PHEV: -23% of new cars -20% of new trucks California AB 32 estimates more than 40%+ of new cars in 2035 may be Zero Emission vehicles (ZEV) Yes (Ahead of 2011 estimates) March 2015Target Rule Review Battery electrics (EVs) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) generate much lower carbon emissions

16. New Information Fleet Turnover Target RuleNew InformationOn Track? 8 year turnover STS anticipates 9 year turnover Studies indicates vehicle lasting longer, slower turnover Not quite March 2015Target Rule Review Replacement of older vehicles brings new low-emission vehicles on-line

17. New Information Fleet Mix Target RuleNew InformationOn Track? 2035 Fleet will be: Auto: 70% Light Truck: 30% STS and recent trends anticipate much slower shift to light trucks STS estimates 60/40 in 2035 Not quite March 2015Target Rule Review Long-term shift from pickups and SUVs to passenger cars reduces average emissions per mile

18. New Information Low Carbon Fuels Target RuleNew InformationOn Track? -20% in carbon intensity of fuels by 2035 State continuing implementation of Clean Fuels Program Oil is getting “dirtier” – sources of oil (shale, fracking) have higher CO2 emissions Close March 2015Target Rule Review Reducing carbon content of fuels directly reduces CO2 emissions

19. State Plans Progress Progress Global Warming Commission 2014 Report Global Warming Commission 2014 Report Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) Statewide Transportation Strategy (STS) Governor’s 10-Year Energy Action Plan Governor’s 10-Year Energy Action Plan But But No state plans or policies setting GHG targets for other sectors No state plans or policies setting GHG targets for other sectors March 2015Target Rule Review

20. State Plans Additional reductions are needed to meet 2050 goal January 2015Target Rule Review Targets based on a steady 5.1% per year reduction in emissions 2010-2050

21. Metropolitan Growth & Development State population forecast for 2035 is down slightly State population forecast for 2035 is down slightly 5.9 million to 5.4 million 5.9 million to 5.4 million Two new MPOs Two new MPOs Albany Area Albany Area Middle Rogue (Grants Pass) Middle Rogue (Grants Pass) March 2015Target Rule Review

22. Local efforts to reduce emissions A few notable efforts Portland/Multnomah County Climate Action Plan – Goal is 30% reduction in VMT per capita Portland/Multnomah County Climate Action Plan – Goal is 30% reduction in VMT per capita Eugene Climate Recovery Ordinance – Goal is to reduce fossil use by 50% by 2030 Eugene Climate Recovery Ordinance – Goal is to reduce fossil use by 50% by 2030 March 2015Target Rule Review

23. Input from MPOs, local governments Continue voluntary approach and address a full range of outcomes Continue voluntary approach and address a full range of outcomes Concern about limited resources for metropolitan planning; other obligations Concern about limited resources for metropolitan planning; other obligations Scenario planning shows need for Scenario planning shows need for Increased transportation funding Increased transportation funding New programs to expand options New programs to expand options State leadership State leadership More work needed to translate high level, scenario “strategies” into land use and transportation plans More work needed to translate high level, scenario “strategies” into land use and transportation plans March 2015Target Rule Review

24. Land use feasibility and economic studies Few studies Few studies Available information Available information Growing market for compact, mixed use development Growing market for compact, mixed use development Metro reports high rates of infill, redevelopment Metro reports high rates of infill, redevelopment Demographic and market shift favor multifamily housing Demographic and market shift favor multifamily housing Surveys show increasing market preference for walkable neighborhoods Surveys show increasing market preference for walkable neighborhoods March 2015Target Rule Review

25. State support for scenario planning Funding and technical support for scenario planning strategic assessments Funding and technical support for scenario planning strategic assessments New analysis tools (GreenSTEP, RSPM) New analysis tools (GreenSTEP, RSPM) ODOT, OSTI commitment to continue to support metropolitan efforts ODOT, OSTI commitment to continue to support metropolitan efforts March 2015Target Rule Review

26. Implications Are changes to targets warranted? New technical information is mixed New technical information is mixed More and better electrics and plug-ins sooner than expected More and better electrics and plug-ins sooner than expected Fleet will turnover more slowly Fleet will turnover more slowly More pickups/SUVs More pickups/SUVs March 2015Target Rule Review

27. Implications Are changes to targets warranted? Metropolitan areas are updating plans to 2040 and beyond Additional reductions will be needed to meet 2050 goal March2015Target Rule Review Metropolitan AreaNext RTP Update Next RTP Planning Horizon Portland MetroDecember 20182040 Salem-KeizerMay 20152035 Central LaneDecember 20152040 Corvallis AreaMarch 20172041-2042 Rogue ValleyMarch 20172042 BendSeptember 20152040

28. Preliminary Recommendation Amendments to targets are warranted Amendments to targets are warranted Update targets to 2040 based on new technical information from ODOT, DEQ, Energy Update targets to 2040 based on new technical information from ODOT, DEQ, Energy Explore ways to integrate GHG reduction and scenario planning with metropolitan plan updates Explore ways to integrate GHG reduction and scenario planning with metropolitan plan updates March 2015Target Rule Review

29. May LCDC Meeting Revised Target Review report Revised Target Review report Options for commission action Options for commission action Target amendments warranted or not? Target amendments warranted or not? If yes, direction for next steps If yes, direction for next steps March 2015Target Rule Review

30. January 2015Target Rule Review