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6 Public Opinion and Political Action

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1 6 Public Opinion and Political Action
These protestors are reacting to the news that the Supreme Court has declared President Obama’s health care reforms to be constitutional. Fewer than half of the Americans polled a week later were aware that the Court had ruled in favor of the changes.

2 6 Learning Objectives In a democracy, public opinion is supposed to guide public policy. America is an unusually diverse nation and public opinion varies widely. In this chapter we will look at the demographics of the American public and how demographic trends will affect politics. We’ll learn how political opinions are formed and how they’re measured. We’ll also explore the role of ideology in shaping political opinion. Next we’ll examine forms of political participation and, finally, we’ll consider how public opinion shapes public policy. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions 6.2

3 6 Learning Objectives Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion 6.3 Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior 6.4

4 6 Learning Objectives Classify forms of political participation into two broad types 6.5 Analyze how public opinion about the scope of government guides political behavior 6.6

5 6.1 NASCAR and Census advertising
In an attempt to get more people to fill out their Census forms, the Census Bureau advertised heavily in One controversial allocation of money was $1.2 million to sponsor NASCAR driver Greg Biffle. Critics said this was a ridiculous use of taxpayer money. In response, Census director Robert Groves argued that millions of Americans followed NASCAR races and that an increase in the initial response to the Census of just 0.1 percent could cut the cost of conducting the Census by $8.5 million. Do you think this was a good idea or a waste of taxpayer money?

6 Immigrant Society 6.1 A nation of nations Waves of immigration
The U.S. is often called a nation of immigrants. All Americans except for Native Americans are descended from immigrants. Approximately one million legal immigrants and 500,000 illegal immigrants are still arriving every year. About 12% of the current population is foreign-born. Historically, immigrants have come in waves from different regions. The first wave, from colonial times through the mid-nineteenth century, came from the British Isles, Germany, and Scandinavia. The second wave, in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, came from southern and eastern Europe. Hispanic immigration began to rise in the 1960s, and was followed by a wave of Asian immigrants. A nation of nations 1 million legal immigrants/year 500,000 illegal immigrants/year 12% of residents foreign-born Waves of immigration Northwest Europe (English, Irish, Scottish, Germans, Scandinavians) Southern and Eastern Europe (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) Hispanics (Cuba, Central America, Mexico) Asians (Vietnam, Korea, Philippines, India)

7 Immigrant Society 6.1 Restrictions on immigration Open door policy
At first the U.S. had an open door policy. Anyone could immigrate from anywhere. But in 1875, Congress began to pass laws limiting undesirable immigrants. At first, criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, and those with diseases were prohibited from entering the country. In 1882, the first ban on immigration by a specific race or ethnicity was passed with the Chinese Exclusion Act. By 1924, the frontier had long since closed and cities were full of densely populated slums. Alarmed by the number of southern and eastern Europeans who continued to arrive at Ellis Island, Congress established quotas based on national origin. In 1965, quotas were scrapped in favor of a policy of family integration. Although this seemed like a fair system at the time, today some people think that the emphasis should be put on the individual immigrant’s special talents or skills rather than on family connections. What do you think? Restrictions on immigration Open door policy Criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, diseased (1875) Chinese Exclusion Act (1882) Johnson-Reid Immigration Act (1924) Hart-Celler Immigration and Nationality Act (1965) Family integration – good or bad idea?

8 American Melting Pot 6.1 Minority majority
America is often called a melting pot because of the way immigrants from all over the world assimilate into American culture. But the new term policymakers use is “minority majority.” As of 2010, whites made up only 63% of the population. Hispanics make up 16%, but they’re the fastest growing minority group. By 2050, whites will make up only 48% of the population, less than half. Minority majority Hispanic population growing rapidly

9 6.1 FIGURE 6.1: The coming minority majority
Based on current birthrates and immigration rates, the Census Bureau estimates that the demographics of the United States should change as shown. As of 2008, the census estimated that minority groups should be in the majority by the year 2045. Hawaii, New Mexico, California, and Texas already have minority majorities. Eight other states—Maryland, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and New Jersey—have minority populations of at least 40 percent.

10 American Melting Pot 6.1 Reluctant immigrants
Hispanics have succeeded African Americans, who make up 13% of the population, as the largest minority. African Americans are the only immigrant group who were brought here against their will. Over a quarter of African Americans still live in poverty, a legacy of the racism and discrimination they’ve faced. But the political power of African Americans is increasing, as evidenced by the presidency of Barack Obama. Illegal immigration is an ongoing political problem. The 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli Act forbids employers from knowingly employing illegal immigrants but it hasn’t proven to be an effective deterrent because of both weak enforcement and the difficulty of proving that an employer knew that a worker’s documents were fake. Reluctant immigrants 13% of population 26% still live in poverty Political power increasing Simpson-Mazzoli Act (1986)

11 6.1 Border fence As of 2012, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States was estimated to be at least 11.5 million, 76 percent of whom were from Mexico. Here, a border patrol car patrols along the fence between Arizona and Mexico.

12 American Melting Pot 6.1 Political culture and assimilation
Historically, most immigrant groups have adopted the values that make up American political culture within a few generations. There’s always concern that new groups will not assimilate. This concern has been unfounded in the past, but it remains a persistent fear that leads to negative attitudes toward immigrants. By the time this little Chinese-American girl, shown here meeting former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, graduates from college, Asian Americans will represent 8 percent of the U.S. population. As the most highly educated segment of the coming “minority majority,” it’s likely that they will be in a position to exercise a good deal of political power by then. Political culture and assimilation

13 Regional Shift 6.1 Northeast most populous
The Northeast has historically been the most populous region of the country, but westward and southward migration has increased since World War II. Internal migration is heaviest into the so-called Sun Belt states, especially Arizona, Texas, and Florida. A state’s political power ebbs and flows with its population because of reapportionment, which is the practice of reallocating House seats after each census. In recent decades, states in the Southwest have gained seats and states in the Northeast have lost them. Northeast most populous West and South growing since WWII Sun Belt migration Arizona, Texas, Florida Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment Once each decade, after census

14 Graying of America 6.1 Over-65 fastest growing age group
The population of the United States is aging. People over 65 are the fastest growing age group, as longevity increases and fertility rates fall. This demographic shift has critical implications for the Social Security program, which is dependent on the contributions of current workers to pay out benefits to current retirees. As the ratio of workers to retirees shifts, there will be fewer workers paying into the system to support an increasing number of retirees. But citizens over 65 are a politically active group, and it has proven to be political suicide for a candidate to threaten to cut Social Security benefits. Candidates must think very long term when they make plans to revise the system, assuring people over the age of 55 or so that any changes will not affect them. Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for Social Security Ratio changing Politically-sensitive

15 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing?
In addition to immigration, the United States is experience an internal population shift. Can you answer this review question about migration within the U.S.? From Northeast to Southwest From Northwest to Southeast From Southwest to Northeast From Midwest to Northeast 15

16 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing?
The population of the U.S. is shifting toward the South and West from the North and East, due to Sun Belt migration. From Northeast to Southwest From Northwest to Southeast From Southwest to Northeast From Midwest to Northeast 16

17 How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization
6.2 How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization How do Americans acquire their political viewpoints? The process of developing one’s political orientation is called political socialization. It starts when we are very young and continues throughout our lifetimes. In authoritarian regimes, political socialization can take the form of rigid indoctrination, but the process is much more informal in the U.S. Political socialization starts at home, with your family. Activity: Ask students to think about the role of political symbols in society. In particular, ask students to list these symbols and where they’re most often seen. These symbols include the flag, the Constitution, Uncle Sam, etc. Discuss the Pledge of Allegiance as a socializing agent for young children, as well as activities during Fourth of July celebrations, which are often used to reinforce public values of nationalism, patriotism, and reverence for the Constitution. This exercise provides an unintimidating yet thoughtful way of emphasizing just how political socialization has been used to instill principles, values, and beliefs in citizens. Process of Political Socialization Political Learning over a Lifetime

18 Process of Political Socialization
6.2 Process of Political Socialization The civics and U.S. history classes that you take in school are only the tip of the iceberg as far as political socialization goes. The most influential learning is informal, through attitudes you pick up and absorb. The family plays the central role in political socialization. Although everyone likes to think of him- or herself as an independent political thinker, the strongest predictor of your political party preference is that of your parents. You spend more time with them and have more of an emotional investment in their worldview than you do with other agents of political socialization, such as your school. Many young people are getting political socialization from the mass media, especially television. However, despite the increasing media saturation of young people’s lives, they are not watching the news. The median age of news program viewership is 62. This explains why increasing media exposure has led to more political ignorance rather than less. The only formal involvement that the government has in political socialization is through the public school system, in which students are educated to have a positive view of the U.S. political system, and to value free enterprise and democracy. The more educated citizens are, the more likely they are to vote and to be tolerant of opposing opinions. Civics class tip of iceberg Family Central role Time and emotional commitment Mass media The new parents (and teachers) Age gap in following politics School Forming civic virtue

19 Political Learning over a Lifetime
6.2 Political Learning over a Lifetime Political socialization is most pronounced in our childhood and young adult years but it continues throughout our lives. Political participation increases dramatically with age, and party identification solidifies. Political behavior is learned behavior, and this learning slows down but never stops. Increasing participation with age Party identification strengthens Political behaviour is learned

20 6.2 FIGURE 6.2: Turnout increases with age
In the 2010 congressional elections, the relationship between age and turnout was particularly pronounced. Because young adults tend to be more liberal than older voters, political analysts concluded that the low turnout rate of young people cost the Democrats a substantial number of seats in the House and Senate in 2010. Which age group has the highest turnout rate? Which has the lowest? Can you explain why this is the case?

21 6.2 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? As we’ve seen, political socialization comes from several sources. See if you can answer this brief review question about political socialization. Government Family School Profession 21

22 6.2 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? Family is the most important agent of political socialization because we spend the most time with family, from the earliest age, and have the greatest emotional commitment to family members. Government Family School Profession 22

23 Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information
6.3 Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information We’ve just discussed how Americans form their political opinions. We’ve also established that public opinion is supposed to guide public policy in a democracy. But how do we know what the public’s opinion is on political issues? How do we even know which political issues are important to the public? Voting, of course, is one measure of public opinion, but it isn’t very precise. We mainly measure public opinion through polls that take a random sample of the population and extrapolate their views to the entire population. This section explains how that’s done. How Polls Are Conducted Role of Polls in American Democracy What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information Decline of Trust in Government

24 How Polls Are Conducted
6.3 How Polls Are Conducted It would be extremely expensive and time-consuming to poll every American, so polls use a small sample of the population instead. In order for the views of the sample to accurately reflect the views of the population as a whole, the sample must be completely random. That is, everyone must have an equal chance of being polled. When the opinions of a random sample of 1,500 Americans are polled, researchers can be reasonably confident that their views represent the views of the whole population, and their degree of confidence can be quantified. Most polls aim to have a large enough sample to give a 95% confidence level that the results are accurate to plus or minus 3%. In other words, if 90% of the population says they disapprove of the job Congress is doing, the actual percentage of the population that holds this view is between 87% and 93%. The key to an accurate sample is its randomness. A biased sample will be misleading. Modern communications technology has made it easier and cheaper to obtain random samples. Most polling is done over the telephone, via random digit dialing. This is cheaper than in-person polling, but has a lower response rate. As more Americans switch from landlines to cell phones, the cost of polling is increasing. It’s illegal to use autodial technology to call cell phones, so the polling organization must employ an actual human to dial the numbers. People are also more reluctant to respond to surveys on their cell phones. Polling may be conducted mainly over the Internet in the future. Some polling organizations are just beginning to find ways to overcome sampling issues associated with using the Internet for polls. Sample Random sample Sampling error Random digit dialing Cell phones Internet polling

25 Roll of Polls in American Democracy
6.3 Roll of Polls in American Democracy Polling enables political candidates to learn what promises to make and what policies to support or distance themselves from. More importantly, polling enables elected officials to gauge public opinion between elections. Polls showing public support, or lack thereof, for a bill can determine how legislators will vote on it. Polling increases the role of public opinion in democratic government, but critics charge that it causes politicians to follow rather than lead. But does it really? Politicians maintain that they don’t use polls in order to craft policy to match public opinion. On the contrary, they use polls to strategize how to shape public opinion to support the policies they want to impose. They find key words and phrases that help them to spin their policy proposals to obtain popular support. There’s also potential for a bandwagon effect, in which people support a popular candidate simply because polls have shown that he’s popular. Exit polls are a type of poll that is actually dangerous because they do more than measure public opinion. They can determine electoral outcomes. In part due to time differences, polls that show which candidate is ahead in an electoral race can discourage voters from bothering to go to the polls. How a question is worded is important because it can affect how a respondent answers. Pollsters need to strive for neutral wording and avoid leading questions. Polling as a tool for democracy: pros and cons Gauge opinion between elections Following rather than leading Pandering or shaping? Bandwagon effect Exit polls Affect election results Question wording

26 Exit Polls In exit polls, voters are asked questions just after they have voted. The media uses these polls to predict winners, as well as to understand the sorts of people who voted for particular candidates.

27 What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information
6.3 What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information Americans are grossly uninformed about politics and about the world around them in general. Jefferson’s supposed faith in the wisdom of the common people was unfounded. He was correct that education gives them better capacity as citizens, but education alone is not enough to create an informed electorate. Why are Americans so poorly informed about politics? Some say it’s the fault of the schools. Others blame the media. What do you think? Given the lack of political knowledge, how does our system function? Some people are one-issue voters, choosing a candidate based on his view on a single issue, such as abortion or gun control, that is important to them. Other voters belong to groups that they trust to pick like-minded candidates, such as environmental organizations or their church. And some voters simply vote for the party in power when times are good, and vote for the other party when times are bad. Activity: Have students identify several reasons that may account for American citizens being so poorly informed about politics. What are ways in which lack of information can be successfully dealt with? Should Americans be concerned with this situation? What proposals might be developed to remedy this situation? Americans are uninformed Jeffersonian faith in wisdom of common people unfounded Young people most uninformed Who is responsible for the ill-informed electorate? Is it the schools’ fault? Is it the media’s fault? Paradox of mass politics

28 Decline of Trust in Government
6.3 Decline of Trust in Government At the midpoint of the twentieth century, nearly three-quarters of Americans trusted the government to do the right thing. Thirty years later, in 1980, that figure was only 25%. What caused this decline in trust? The Vietnam War, the Watergate scandal, and the economic and hostage crises of the 1970s all took a massive toll on public trust in government. There was a brief uptick in public trust after 9/11, but overall this decline seems to be permanent. Is public cynicism good or bad for democracy? On the one hand, it keeps politicians on their toes. But on the other, it shows that most people don’t believe that the government is serving their interests—which, after all, is its purpose in a democracy. One result of public distrust is a lack of support for programs that aid the poor. In order for taxpayers to pay into a government program from which they don’t receive direct benefits, they need to trust that the program will serve the public interest. The major effect of declining trust in government has been a sharp decline in belief that the government can solve problems. Republicans exploit this cynicism to push free enterprise and cut both taxes and government spending, ignoring the fact that the private sector’s profit motive makes it ill-suited to address some societal needs. The great slide Vietnam War Watergate Economy/hostage crisis Is public cynicism good? Negative effect on programs for poor

29 6.3 FIGURE 6.4: Decline of trust in government, 1958-2012
This graph shows how people have responded over time to the following question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? Why is “never” missing from the choices? How would you respond?

30 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls?
Try to answer this brief review question about polls. They are usually inaccurate They don’t poll every voter They influence election results None of the above 30

31 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls?
Exit polls influence election results because citizens who’ve not yet voted hear that their favored candidate is winning or losing and do not bother to vote. They are usually inaccurate They don’t poll every voter They influence election results None of the above 31

32 What Americans Value: Political Ideologies
6.4 What Americans Value: Political Ideologies A political ideology is a coherent set of values and beliefs about public policy. The two main political ideologies in the U.S. are liberal and conservative. Most Americans aren’t ideologically consistent, and hold some liberal and some conservative views. Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? Do People Think in Ideological Terms?

33 6.4 TABLE 6.1: How to tell a liberal from a conservative
The labels liberal and conservative are thrown around in American politics with the assumption that everyone knows what they mean. This table shows some of the political beliefs likely to be preferred by liberals and conservatives.

34 Do People Think in Ideological Terms?
6.4 Do People Think in Ideological Terms? A classic study of voting habits, called The American Voter, divided voters into four types. “Ideologues” make a connection between their beliefs and a candidates’ policy positions, such as voting for Republicans because they favor lower taxes or smaller government, or voting for Democrats because they favor stronger regulations or liberal social policies. “Group benefits” voters pick a party based on group identification, such as considering the Republicans the party that supports small business owners or the Democrats as the party of the working man. “Nature of the times” voters tend to vote for the party in power in good times and vote for the other party when times are tough. Around a quarter of voters use no issue content to make their voting decisions, picking the party they routinely vote for or the candidate whose personality appeals to them. Follow-up surveys have found fewer than a quarter of voters using purely ideological criteria for voting. Since voters aren’t ideologically consistent, a victory by one party or the other isn’t a mandate for the ideological agenda of that party. Types of voters Ideologues Group benefits Nature of the times No issue content Ideology of limited importance Seen as threat to family

35 6.4 FIGURE 6.5: Changing attitudes toward gays and lesbians
Some commentators feel that America is in the midst of a culture war. Others disagree, saying that societal attitudes have warmed toward gays and lesbians over the past 25 years. Why do you think there is increasing acceptance of homosexuality in the U.S.?

36 6.4 Americans identify most with which political ideology?
Can you answer this question about the way Americans identify themselves politically? Moderate Liberal Democrat Conservative 36

37 6.4 Americans identify most with which political ideology?
At least 41% of Americans identify themselves as conservative, far more than identity themselves as liberal or moderate. Democrat is a party affiliation, not a political ideology. Moderate Liberal Democrat Conservative 37

38 How Americans Participate in Politics
6.5 How Americans Participate in Politics When you think of political participation, voting is probably the first activity that leaps to mind. But it’s far from the only form of political participation open to Americans. Citizens can participate in political caucuses, write to their legislative representatives, file lawsuits, and stage marches, rallies, and demonstrations. Only around half of eligible voters vote in presidential elections, and even fewer vote in midterm and local elections, yet more than 80% express satisfaction with the way democracy works in the U.S. Conventional Participation Protest as Participation Class, Inequality, and Participation

39 Conventional Participation
6.5 Conventional Participation Voting is the most common form of political participation, and the only one to have experienced a decline in recent years. Other conventional forms of political participation include running for office, working on and donating to campaigns, signing petitions, and contacting government officials. Americans have become increasingly involved in these other forms of conventional political participation. Less conventional forms of political participation include protesting and civil disobedience, and even violence. Conventional participation Voting Running for office Collecting signatures for a petition Unconventional participation Protesting Civil disobedience Violence

40 Protest as Participation
6.5 Protest as Participation Protesting is a more dramatic means of achieving policy change than casting a ballot or writing to your Congressman. Protests attract the attention of the media, the public, and politicians. Protesters want their policy issue to be impossible to ignore. Protests are rare compared to more conventional forms of political participation, such as contacting government officials. Civil disobedience is the act of breaking laws that you consider to be unjust. The sit-ins by civil rights activists at whites-only lunch counters are an example of civil disobedience. Drawing attention Protests attract the media Rare Civil disobedience Breaking unjust laws

41 6.5 Lunch counter sit-in Nonviolent civil disobedience was one of the most effective techniques of the civil rights movement in the American South. Young African Americans and white supporters sat at “whites only” lunch counters to protest segregation. Photos such as this drew national attention to the injustice of racial discrimination.

42 6.5 Kent State In one of the best-known images of American political violence from the Vietnam War era, a Kent State student lies dead, one of four killed when members of the Ohio National Guard opened fire on unarmed anti–Vietnam War demonstrators.

43 Class, Inequality, and Participation
6.5 Class, Inequality, and Participation We’ve noted that America is a diverse nation, and different groups participate in politics at unequal rates. Across the board, the higher a person’s socio-economic status, the more likely that person is to engage in some form of political participation. According to that formula, African Americans would participate less than whites, but they tend to vote at nearly equal levels, that is, roughly half of eligible white voters vote in presidential elections and nearly half of eligible black voters do, as well. Political scientists speculate that minorities have a group consciousness that spurs them to participate at higher rates than their socio-economic level would otherwise suggest. Politicians naturally pay attention to the opinions of likely voters. They tend not to pay much attention to the views of groups with lower participation rates. What implications does this have for public policies—such as student loan relief—to benefit young people? Higher socio-economic status = higher participation rates Minorities vote at nearly equal levels What are the policy implications of lower political participation?

44 6.5 What is the most common form of political participation?
We’ve discussed different types of political participation. Can you answer this brief review question? Voting Writing to elected officials Working on campaigns Protesting 44

45 6.5 What is the most common form of political participation?
Voting is the most common form of political participation, although only about half of eligible voters turn out for presidential elections, and far fewer vote in midterm and local elections. Voting Writing to elected officials Working on campaigns Protesting 45

46 Understanding Public Opinion and Political Action
6.6 Understanding Public Opinion and Political Action People outside the United States tend to believe that public opinion determines political policy in America because of our democratic system. But there are limits to the role that public opinion plays in the shaping of policy. We have seen that some of these limits stem from low rates of political participation, from lack of political knowledge, and the tendency of politicians to try to shape, more than respond to, public opinion. Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action

47 Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government
6.6 Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government In public opinion polls more than half of the American people respond that the government should do less, that it tries to do too many things—some of which should be left up to individuals and businesses. In wartime, opinion shifts slightly, but the overall trend is that Americans want less, not more, government. But when Americans are asked, not this general question, but which specific programs they would like cut, their tune changes. The public consistently calls for more spending on education, health care, aid to cities, environmental protection, and fighting crime, among other policy issues. The fact is, Americans are conservatives in theory but liberals in practice. We cherish the idea of small government, but there are a lot of things we expect the government to do. This contradiction leads to policy gridlock because both liberals and conservatives can claim that the public supports their view. Should government do more or less? In peacetime, most Americans say “less” But public opinion is complex and inconsistent Ideological conservatives Operational liberals Policy gridlock

48 Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action
6.6 Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action Recall that in a representative democracy like the United States, citizens don’t usually vote directly on policy but instead vote for representatives who will make policy for them. Given the low rates of voter turnout, Americans clearly take the ability to choose policymakers for granted. But the fact that protesters are usually intent on getting the government’s attention, not overthrowing it, demonstrates that Americans are socialized to the idea of democratic government. Given Americans’ low level of political knowledge, are Americans fit to choose their political leaders? Can the public make rational choices when they’re so poorly informed? The answer is both yes and no. The public is undoubtedly not making the decisions it would make if it were better informed, but the public has a general sense of whether things are going well or poorly and holds politicians at least minimally accountable by voting them out when things are not going well. Representative democracy Decide who governs Is public fit to choose its leaders? Yes and no

49 6.6 Do a majority of Americans favor more or less government?
We’ve discussed American attitudes toward the role of government. Try to answer this review question. More Less About the same as we have currently It is unclear what the public wants 49

50 6.6 Do a majority of Americans favor more or less government?
In survey after survey, a majority of the American public claims to want less government. That message is clear; it only becomes muddled when it comes to exactly what to cut. More Less About the same as we have currently It is unclear what the public wants 50


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