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By Bradley Coyne, Kushal Chukkapalli (KC), Hari Vijayan. November 6, 2014
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Agenda Introduction Business Recent Financial Performance Macroeconomic Review Management Philosophy Financial Analysis Financial Valuation Recommendation
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Introduction Leading global innovator, manufacturer and marketer of tools and equipment, diagnostics and repair, and system solutions for professional users performing critical tasks. Head-quarters in Kenosha, WI. Employee strength of 11300 people. Products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostic software, information and management systems, shop equipment, vehicle repair solutions and services in various Industrial segments. Presence in more than 130 countries with 64% of sales in US. Has never skipped a dividend since 1939. Holdings : We hold 100 shares purchased at $85.20 on April 2013. Currently valued at $134.35 per share with a market value of $13,435 as of yesterday. Source: 2013 10-K Page 4
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Basic Business Segments of the company Snap-on Tools Group Repair Systems & Information Financial Services Commercial & Industrial Source: 2013 10-K Page 27
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Basic Business Segments Snap-on Tools Group supports professional automotive service technicians with innovative products and financing solutions. The Repair Systems & Information Group provides professional vehicle repair customers with a wide range of diagnostics, undercar equipment and repair information and systems solutions through both direct and distributor channels. Financial Services consists of the business operations of Snap-on Credit, Snap-on's wholly owned finance subsidiary in the U.S. They provide financing option to franchisees, direct and indirect customers. The Commercial & Industrial Group serves professionals in critical industries and emerging markets with a broad range of productivity solutions delivered through both direct and distributor channels. Industries served include aviation and aerospace, agriculture, construction, military and government, mining, natural resources, and power generation. Source: 2013 10-K Page 27
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Business Distribution channels: mobile van, company direct sales, distributors, e-commerce. Major products and services: Snap-on, ATI, BAHCO line of tools, Blackhawk collision repair equipment, CDI torque tools, etc. Depends heavily on steel as the raw material. Owns 7.2 million sq.ft of facilities, 74 % of which is owned. Owns about 700 patents in U.S and 1500 patents internationally. Main competitors : Genuine Parts Company, Stanley Black and Decker, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Emerson Electric Co., etc. Source: 2013 10-K Page 6,7,8,10
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Recent Financial Performance Revenues of $3056.3 million in 2013. Net earnings of $359.3 million in 2013. Last quarter revenues: $806.3 million, a 9% increase from 2013. Last quarter earnings: 106.7 million, a 22% increase from 2013. 58,115,776 shares of common stock are outstanding. Potential headwinds could result from the European economy and fluctuating US military spending Growth drivers include enhancing the franchise network, expanding repair shop owners and managers, extending to critical industries and building in emerging markets Source: CEO Nick Pinchuk’s statement in 2014 Q3 “Comments call”
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Source : Bloomberg : SNA US Equity
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Operating Earnings Contribution of business segments Net Sales Source: 2013 10-K Page 26
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Product and geographical diversity Geographical PresenceProduct Diversity Source: 2013 10-K Page 5
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Macroeconomic review The company has secured an ample supply of both bar and coil steel (its principle raw materials) from its suppliers, for the near future to meet with material demands. Steel pricing and availability issues are not going to create any significant impact in 2014. The company holds over 700 patents in US and 1500 patents internationally. No single patent represents a significant portion of the company’s revenue. The company does not foresee any environmental protection laws affecting it in the near future Energy and fuel prices can significantly affect the company’s revenue generation. Higher fuel prices might slow down growth. 36% of revenues come internationally. Revenue generation can be significantly affected by the economic conditions in non-US markets. Source: 2013 10-K Page 10,11, wikiwealth.com/sna
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Porter’s 5 forces Power of Suppliers : Low Does not depend on any significant customer Raw materials are elastic in demand Substitutes : Medium Many products are highly specialised Diagnostic and Repair is Vulnerable Barriers to entry : Medium Patent Protection Medium to High cost of entry Global market can pose threat Competition : Medium Few strong competitors do exist No competitor that scales all operations or products Power of Buyers : Medium Numerous options are available Inelastic nature of demand
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SWOT analysis Strengths Technological Prowess – R&D investments Customer Loyalty Cost Advantages in many niche products Financing segment helps in maintaining franchisees Weaknesses Bad acquisitions in past Operations are diversified but not scaling Seasonal sales fluctuations Inefficient foreign currency management Opportunities Emerging markets and Geographical Diversification Invest more in R&D to maintain advantage Threats International competition is intensifying Product costs are reducing globally Uncertainty about the U.S military spending Changes in economic policies Weak European economy
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Management Philosophy CEO -Nicholas T. Pinchuk Nicholas T. Pinchuk No new changes in management in the past 3 years Implementing a value-creation process throughout the company focusing on safety, quality, customer connection, innovation and rapid continuous improvement Executive compensation is competitive to the industry peers, with a higher percentage of pay-at-risk compensation. Looking forward to developing and expanding customer base in adjacent markets and additional geographies. Trying to enter new and riskier industries in future. Source: 2014 Proxy statement Page 20,26, 2013 10-K Page 26
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Expectations Forward The Commercial & Industrial Group Invest in emerging market growth initiatives. Reduce structural and operating costs through RCI and restructuring. Tools Improve franchisee productivity, profitability, and commercial health. Expand market coverage and penetration; Invest in new product innovation and Increase operational flexibility. The Repair Systems & Information Group Upgrade technology, expand product range, integrate solutions and increase market penetration Financial Services Deliver products and services that attract and sustain profitable franchisees, improve productivity levels, and maintain a healthy portfolio performance. Source: 2013 10-K Page 26,27
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Financial Analysis- Ratios Liquidity Ratios 20092010201120122013 Current Ratio2.272.002.622.832.51 Quick Ratio1.891.631.962.151.90 Leverage Ratios 20092010201120122013 Debt/Assets30.95%31.39%26.79%25.00%23.65% Interest Coverage5.266.057.769.2510.45 Debt/EBITDA3.282.901.791.641.47 Debt/Capitalization0.45 0.390.350.31 Turnover Ratios 20092010201120122013 A/R Turnover5.396.116.306.115.94 Days Sales Outstanding67.7259.7657.9859.7261.47 Inventory Turnover4.124.664.243.923.78 Inventory Days88.6678.3086.1593.2196.64 A/P Turnover10.6210.5911.2011.5910.62 Days Payable Outstanding34.3834.4632.5831.4934.35 Cash Conversion Cycle121.99103.60111.55121.44123.76 Fixed Asset Turnover6.967.808.448.268.25 Total Asset Turnover0.700.720.810.79
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Financial Analysis- Ratios Profitability Ratios 20092010201120122013 Operating Profit Margin10.36%12.36%15.95%16.66%18.11% Net Margin5.80%7.05%8.80%10.08%11.22% ROA4.17%5.18%7.73%8.06%8.75% ROE (Book Value)11.01%13.74%18.34%17.30%16.88% Greenblatt Numbers 20092010201120122013 EBIT/Tangible Assets16.99%17.82%21.49%21.66%23.10% EBIT/EV2.83%3.69%5.40%5.88%6.68%
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DuPont Analysis
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Source : Bloomberg : SNA US Equity
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Recent Stock Performance Source : http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SNA+Interactive# Yearly Stock Returns 200920102011201220132014 Close Price as of Beginning of Year30.1842.8657.9751.2480.86108.55 Close Price as of End of Year or Current Date42.2656.5850.6278.99109.52134.35 Yearly Dividend Paid or Dividend Paid Year to Date1.21.221.31.41.581.32 Return44.00%34.86%-10.44%56.89%37.40%24.98%
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Valuation - WACC Equity Risk Premium Source: Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business, NYU Discount Factor Calculation Capital Structure Shares Outstanding58.107602 Current Stock Price134.35 Total Market Value of Equity7,807 Total Debt972 Total Capitalization8,779 Debt-to-Total Capitalization11.07% Equity-to-Total Capitalization88.93% Beta1.00 Risk-Free Rate2.31% Stock Market Return7.34% Market Risk Premium5.03% E[R] (CAPM)7.34%ROE Averaged over past 5 years32.54% Cost of Debt5.85% Weight put on E[R] Calculation90% Tax Rate32% Weight put on Return Calculation10% After-tax Cost of Debt3.98% Cost of Equity9.86% WACC9.21% Risk Premium1.00% Discount Rate10.21%
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Discounted Cash Flow ($ in millions)2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E EBIT 687 801 930 1,085 1,276 Less: Income Taxes @ 32% (198) (233) (273) (321) (380) EBIAT 489 567 657 764 896 Add: Depreciation 61 65 70 75 80 Less: Capital Expenditures (78) (84) (90) (96) (103) Less: Increase In NWC (135) (140) (154) (166) (181) Unlevered Free Cash Flow 336 409 483 577 692 Terminal Growth Rate 3.50% Terminal Value 10,673 Discount Rate 10.21% PV of Free Cash Flow 305 337 361 391 6,990 Implied Enterprise Value 8,384 Enterprise Value 8,384 Less: Debt 972 Add: Cash 218 Implied Equity Value 7,630 Shares Outstanding 58.108 Current Stock Price $134.35 Total Fair Value Stock Price $131.30
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Enterprise Value Price NTM Enterprise Value Company NameEBITDAEBIT EPSTangible BV Forward Total Revenue Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E Snap-on Incorporated (NYSE:SNA) 11.7x12.9x19.5x6.2x2.5x10.7x17.6x Blount International Inc. (NYSE:BLT) 8.9x13.9x43.6x4.0x1.2x7.8x15.8x ARI Network Services Inc. (NasdaqCM:ARIS) 28.7x125.9xNM 1.3x8.1x32.8x Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) 7.9x10.3x14.3xNM1.8x8.3x15.4x Danaher Corp. (NYSE:DHR) 12.7x16.1x21.0x36.3x2.7x11.9x20.4x Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE:EMR) 9.9x11.9x18.0x39.5x1.9x9.1x16.1x SPX Corporation (NYSE:SPW) 9.7x12.6x8.1xNM1.0x9.1x15.1x Genuine Parts Company (NYSE:GPC) 12.9x14.7x21.7x7.3x1.0x11.6x20.0x W.W. Grainger, Inc. (NYSE:GWW) 11.1x12.5x21.7x6.0x1.6x10.0x18.8x Pentair plc (NYSE:PNR) 10.0x12.0x19.7xNM2.1x11.4x15.6x Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK) 11.0x15.1x 21.5xNM 1.6x10.6x 15.6x High 28.7x125.9x 43.6x39.5x 2.7x11.9x 32.8x Low 7.9x10.3x8.1x4.0x1.0x7.8x15.1x Mean 12.3x24.5x21.1x18.6x1.6x9.8x18.6x Median 10.5x13.3x 21.0x7.3x 1.6x9.6x 16.0x LTM EBITDALTM EBIT LTM Diluted EPS LTM Tangible BV/Share NTM Revenue / Share NTM EBITDA NTM EPS Snap-On Inc. (NYSE: SNA) 647.27 586.20 6.10 36.66$56.28 748.157.30 Implied Price_Mean $ 136.79 $ 247.16 $ 128.41 $ 682.67 $ 90.78 $ 126.23 $ 135.36 Implied Price_Median $ 116.96 $ 133.67 $ 128.00 $ 267.64 $ 90.62 $ 123.28 $ 116.45 Implied SNA Stock Price $ 139.52
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STRENGTHS Strong recent financial performance due restructuring Stable supply of short-term raw materials Continuous quarterly dividend for past 74 years Promising growth prospects Diverse and loyal customer base CONCERNS Changes in economic policies Uncertainty in U.S military spending Declining European economy
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Recommendation : HOLD Stock Price as of 11/5/14 : $134.35 Stock Price according to DCF : $131.30 Stock Price according to Comparable Analysis: $139.52
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Q&A
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