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Trends and Issues in the U.S Housing Market 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference May 19 - 20 Raleigh, NC Stockton Williams Executive Director ULI Terwilliger.

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Presentation on theme: "Trends and Issues in the U.S Housing Market 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference May 19 - 20 Raleigh, NC Stockton Williams Executive Director ULI Terwilliger."— Presentation transcript:

1 Trends and Issues in the U.S Housing Market 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference May 19 - 20 Raleigh, NC Stockton Williams Executive Director ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing

2 Our mission is to facilitate creating and sustaining a full spectrum of housing opportunities, including affordable and workforce housing, in communities across the country. The Center’s agenda and activities are broad-based, reflecting the diversity of housing activities and priorities among ULI’s 35,000 members worldwide.

3 Housing Permits Way Below Pre-Recession Peak Source: American Action Forum using US Census Data 2015

4 Housing Starts Way Below Pre-Recession Peak Source: American Action Forum using US Census Data 2014

5 Housing Inventory Remains Suppressed Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/ these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year

6 Home Prices Have Been Rising Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/ these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year

7 First-Time Buyers a Small Part of the Market Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/ these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year

8 Wages are Stagnant Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/ these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year

9 Credit is Tight Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/ these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year

10 Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf Homeownership is at a 20-Year Low

11 More Americans are Renting Source: Mother Jones, Erika Eichelberger and AJ Vicens, Thu Aug. 7, 2014Erika EichelbergerAJ Vicens http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/06/rental-affordability-crisis-hud

12 Renter Growth has Been Accelerating Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

13 Renters Will Lead Future Demand Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

14 Future Population Growth will be Minority- Led Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

15 So Will Future Housing Demand Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

16 Household Income is Lower for Minorities Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

17 So is Household Wealth Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

18 Our Population is Aging Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

19 Mortgage Debt will Weigh Heavily on Older Owners Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

20 Rent is Increasingly Unaffordable Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities http://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need

21 Crushing Rents are Widespread Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families. http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf

22 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing 2013.America’s Rental Housing 2013 Moderately cost burdened households pay at least 30% of income toward rent; Severely burdened households pay at least 50% of income toward rent. The share of cost burdened renter households has reached record levels. Half of all renters are at least moderately cost burdened. People who can’t afford to buy homes are also struggling to pay rent. Rent Burdens Are Growing

23 Affordability Challenges are Significant in Southeast State Total Working Households 2013 Total with Severe Housing Cost Burden 2013 Percent with Severe Housing Cost Burden 2013 AL641,514112,74617.6% FL2,529,871692,47127.4% GA1,391,876308,08922.1% KY607,75796,37215.9% MD942,747185,11819.6% NC1,446,895268,31018.5% PA1,881,654328,28617.4% SC673,696124,99918.6% TN947,733178,84418.9% VA1,225,800229,94718.8% DC117,47830,16625.7% Source: National Housing Conference, Housing Landscape 2015, http://www.nhc.org/http://www.nhc.org/ Landscape2015_final.pdf

24 U.S Housing Policy Favors the Wealthiest Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities http://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need

25 Housing Assistance is Mismatched to Need without subsidies. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities http://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need

26 Housing Credit Production Power is Declining Source: Novogradac & Company LLP and NCSHA data and estimates

27 But Remains a Bulwark of MF Development Source: Novogradac & Company using NAHB housing starts data and NCSHA housing credit utilization data; July 2014

28 Where We Live Matters – Maybe More than Ever

29 CONTACT Stockton Williams Stockton.Williams@uli.org 202.624.7710 www.uli.org/terwilliger

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