1. New Research on the International Travelers to the U.S.
One Travel Conference
New Research on the International Travelers to the U.S.
NOTES TO SPEAKER:
Thank you,
It is my pleasure to be here with you today representing the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO).
Insert overview …………………
Before I do, just a little about our office.
Presented by:
Mr. Ron Erdmann
National Travel & Tourism Office (NTTO)
International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
January 29, 2015

2. We Serve as the National Tourism Office…
…by advancing policies and programs that strengthen economic development and export opportunities.
Publications
Research
Industry Relations
Travel Promotion Act
Policy
National Travel & Tourism Office
The former Office of Travel and Tourism Industries is now called the National Travel & Tourism Office yesterday you heard our new Executive Director (Kelly Craighead) speak. As you heard, she oversees the NTTO’s operation. This is a movement up for our office as we report directly to head of Industry & Analysis rather than the DAS for Services. We will continue to do all of the things we have done in the past like…….
Research……All of the data you see today and much more are available from our office. We manage a set of 7 complementary research programs that provide the industry with the most comprehensive data on international travel to and from the country.
Industry Relations: NTTO staff work industry associations and businesses delivering presentations at conferences, offering webinars, and working directly with the travel industry associations or businesses to help them expand travel exports.
TPA…..NTTO serves as the liaison to Brand USA along with several other Commerce staff. The Secretary of Commerce approves BUSA’s Board, marketing objectives and all request for funding from the cash and in-kind donations Brand USA uses to obtain the matching funds goes through Commerce.
[Policy]……NTTO works with U.S. government agencies as well as other governments and world organizations serving as the tourism industry’s advocate from inside the government. So, if you have issues with a policy, rule, and procedure required by a government that hinders you from doing your international business we would like to here about it and hopefully work with you to resolve.
[pubs]……We also use the NTTO website to provide information to the government and industry. We have numerous free publications and others that are sold that can help you track travel to and from the U.S., and understand the international traveler at the national, sector, regional and destination level.

3. Restructured & Revised Travel Export & Import Estimates
In June to October 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis released newly restructured and revised goods and services exports and imports data
It was the result of work started in 2009 based upon International Monetary Fund recommendations, and is the most extensive restructuring since 1976
Brings U.S. accounts into closer conformity with international guidelines making the data more comparable to other country’s estimates
Affects all travel and tourism export and import estimates for and into the future
New spending estimates include: (1) education, (2) medical and (3) temporary workers to the existing travel export and import estimates
More detail is now available than previously possible with breakouts of business & personal travel as well as estimates for the new 3 items added
* Revised travel export figures issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in October To learn more about the
revisions, visit the NTTO website at:

4. Travel & Tourism as a Leading Export (2013)
Travel & Tourism exports $215 billion
Percentage of service exports % Percentage of all exports %
Travel trade surplus $78 billion
Employment from Travel & Tourism exports million
NYO-NY ST1

5. Travel & Tourism as a Leading Export (2013)
International Travelers = 4 percent of all travelers
BUT 25 percent of total spending
United States is #2 for share of international visitors with 6.4%
United States holds #1 for share of
world travel spending with 14.5%
NYO-NY ST1

6. New Top Travel & Tourism Export Markets 2013 in $ Billions
Origin Country
Travel Receipts
Passenger Fare Receipts
New Export Data *
Total Travel Receipts
Canada
$21.9
$5.1
$1.5
$27.9
China
$10.6
$2.4
$8.1
$21.1
Mexico
$7.4
$7.5
$18.1
Japan
$11.5
$5.5
$0.7
$17.6
United Kingdom
$9.3
$3.4
$0.6
$13.2
Brazil
$8.8
$3.2
$0.4
$12.4
India
$3.7
$1.6
$3.6
$8.9
Germany
$1.7
$7.2
South Korea
$4.5
$0.2
$7.0
Total Travel Exports
$135.6
$41.6
$37.6
$214.8
* = new export data now includes spending by students, medical, and temporary worker travelers. It was released in October 2014 by BEA.

7. Top Travel Export Markets for the U.S. 2013
Market of Origin
Exports ($ Billions)
% Change 12/13
% Change 09/13
Total Travel & Tourism Exports
$214.8 7%
47%
Canada
$27.9 5%
59%
China
$21.1
16%
207%
Mexico
$18.1
24%
Japan
$17.6 3%
39%
United Kingdom
$13.2
-1%
14%
Brazil
$12.4 9%
137%
India
$8.9
10%
33%
Germany
$7.2
-3%
25%
South Korea
$7.0
17%
52%
Record year for travel exports 7

8. U.S. Visitors & Spending (1999-2013)
Visitor spending (receipts) closely mirrors visitor volume. Visitor volume was a record 69.8 million,
and spending also set a record at $214.8 billion in 2013.
Sources: Department of Commerce, National Travel and Tourism Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Statistics Canada; Banco de Mexico.

9. Top U.S. Origin Markets for International Travelers 2013
Rank
Market of Origin
Visitors (000)
% 2012/13 Change
% Change 2009/13 --
Total Arrivals *
69,768 5%
21% 1
Canada
23,387 3%
23% 2
Mexico
14,343 1% 7% 3
United Kingdom
3,835 2%
-2% 4
Japan
3,730
22% 5
Brazil
2,060
15%
57% 6
Germany
1,916
12% 7
China (PRC)
1,807
71% 8
France
1,505
20% 9
South Korea
1,360 9%
45% 10
Australia
1,205
40%
* International travelers include all countries generating visitors to the U.S.
Record year for travel to U.S. 9

10. New Processing Method for Monthly Arrivals Data
Customs & Border Protection (CBP) completed the I-94 Automation Project on April 30th, 2014 – which means no paper I-94 forms for most air & sea ports
Arrivals records are now created when CBP officer creates an electronic arrivals record using the passport that also pulls information from other databases
Same data found on paper I-94 forms are still collected and processed
But, unlike the paper forms, now an electronic record is created for departures
This means an accurate record of nights in the U.S. that was not possible before is now available
Starting with January 2014, the NTTO revised the method used to calculated arrivals to the U.S. for one night or longer using the automated I-94 data
Arrivals data are not directly comparable to previous years, but there is no way to go back and correct the previous data
There was a 5% increase in all overseas arrivals noted between January to April 2014 compared to 2013, but variances exist by country
The 2014 and future data will have improved data quality and comparability

11. ** Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico.
Top Origin Markets for International Travelers to the U.S. January to October 2014
2014Rank
Market of Origin
Visitors (000)
% Change 13/14 --
Total Arrivals *
62,706 7%
Overseas Arrivals **
28,946 8% 1
Canada
19,835
-2% 2
Mexico
13,925
21% 3
United Kingdom
3,351 2% 4
Japan
3,016
-4% 5
China (PRC)
1,919
22% 6
Brazil
1,816
10% 7
Germany
1,686 1%
* International travelers include all countries generating visitors to the U.S.
** Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico. 11

12. Survey of International Air Travelers
English and 11
Foreign language versions
New Questionnaire
In 2012
New NTTO reports
Data on 37
Traveler
Characteristics
Self administered by
passenger
Same survey for non-resident
and resident travelers …
Skip patterns
See the 2013 Cultural Heritage Profile at:

13. * Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico.
Top Cultural Heritage Traveler Markets for Overseas Travelers to the U.S. 2013
2013 Rank
Market of Origin
Visitors (000)
% Change 12/13
% Change 09/13 --
Overseas CHT Arrivals *
18,294 9%
36% 1
United Kingdom
2,543
-1% 6% 2
Brazil
1,427
15%
146% 3
Germany
1,409 4
Japan
1,281
17% 5
France
1,207
21% 6
China (PRC)
1,043
24%
222% 7
Australia
1,006 0%
59% 8
South Korea
732
109% .
* Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico. 13

14. Top Ports-of Entry Overseas & Cultural Heritage Travelers 2013
Overseas Travelers to the U.S. Top Ports of Entry
% of Overseas Travelers who Visit the City they Used to Enter the Country
Cultural Heritage Travelers to the U.S. Top Ports of Entry
New York (JFK) - 17%
85.3%
New York (JFK) - 24%
Miami (MIA) – 14%
65.0%
Miami (MIA) – 13%
Los Angles (LAX) – 10%
67.4%
Los Angles (LAX) – 12%
Honolulu (HNL) – 7%
85.6%
Newark (EWR) – 7%
Newark (EWR) – 5%
5.8% (64% - NYC)
San Francisco (SFO) – 5%
Top 5 – 52%
Top 5 – 61%

15. Transportation Used by Overseas & Cultural Heritage Visitors to the U
Transportation Used by Overseas & Cultural Heritage Visitors to the U.S. 2013
 Mode of Transport
Overseas Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Cultural Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Taxi/Cab/Limousine
35%
39%
Air Travel Between US Cities
33%
37%
Rented Auto
34%
City Subway/Tram/Bus
32%
44%
Auto, Private or Company
31%
Bus between Cities
18%
20%

16. Selected Overseas & Cultural Heritage Travelers’ Key Characteristics 2013
Overseas Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Cultural Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Nights in the U.S. (mean/Median)
18/9
20/10
Average # of States Visited
1.4
1.7
% visiting one state or territory
72%
61%
Average # of Destinations Visited
1.9
2.3
% visiting one state/city
56%
46%
Percent staying in Hotel/Motel
78%
79% . .

17. Top U.S. States/Territories Visited by Overseas & Cultural Heritage Travelers (CHT) 2013
State/Territory Visited by Overseas Travelers
Market Share %
State/Territory Visited by CHT Travelers
New York
30.6%
41.9%
Florida
22.5%
California
24.3%
20.2%
18.3%
Hawaii
9.9%
Nevada
14.1%
9.1%
9.0%
Texas
4.9%
Massachusetts
5.7%
Guam
4.6%
Illinois
4.8%
4.5%
4.3%
Arizona
Pennsylvania
3.1%
3.7%

18. Top U.S. Destinations Visited by Overseas & Cultural Heritage Travelers (CHT) 2013
City Visited by Overseas Travelers
Market Share %
City Visited by CHT Travelers
New York City
29.9%
41.2%
Miami
12.5%
Los Angeles
15.2%
11.8%
Las Vegas
13.8%
Orlando
11.6%
San Francisco
13.6%
9.5%
11.0%
8.9%
9.4%
Honolulu
8.0%
Washington, DC
5.3%
7.0%
Chicago
4.3%
Boston
4.0%
4.6%

19. Activities Participation of Overseas & Cultural Heritage Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Overseas Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Cultural Travelers to the U.S. 2013
Shopping
88%
91%
Sightseeing
77%
86%
Experience Fine Dining
39%
46%
National Parks/Monuments *
34%
59%
Art Gallery/Museums *
28%
50%
Amusement/Theme Parks
32%
Small Towns/Countryside
27%
38%
Visit Historical Locations *
47%
Guided Tours
24%
* Categories that define the CHT visitor. The others were: Concert/Play/ Musical; Cultural Ethnic Heritage Sites; and American Indian Communities.

20. Forecast for International Travel to the United States
Well enough about the past, let’s take a quick look into the future.
Twice a year our office issues a forecast for international travel to the U.S. It is based upon historical trends for arrivals and looks at world arrivals and the USA’s share and how it has changed over time.
We also obtain data from the International Monetary Fund. They forecast key economic variables for over 200 countries twice a year and we look at the change in these forecasted economic indicators to develop our forecast.
On the NTTO website the top 20 countries have yearly forecast volume and rates of change for Now, let’s look at our short term forecast for Asia.

21. USA arrivals in millions
International Visitors to the U.S. and Projections ( )
USA arrivals in millions
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office; Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada Fall 2014 Travel Forecast

22. Short-Term Forecast Inbound Travel to the U.S.
Visitor Origin
2014 (000)
% Change
2015 (000)
2016 (000)
Total Visitors
73,887 6%
76,589 4%
79,127 3%
Overseas
33,629 5%
35,026
36,558
Canada
23,621 1%
24,094 2%
24,575
Mexico
16,638
16%
17,469
17,994
United Kingdom
3,950
4,029
4,110
Japan
3,618
-3%
3,582
-1% 0%
China
2,240
24%
2,666
19%
3,119
17%
Brazil
2,205 7%
2,359
2,500
Germany
1,955
1,994
2,034
France
1,625 8%
1,690
1,724

23. The Quickest Way to U.S. International Tourism Information: http://travel.trade.gov
Order, read, download & print the latest statistics on
international travel to and from the U.S.
All of the latest summary tables highlighting specific tourism trends
More than 30 plus market and regional profiles available
Forecast of international travelers to the U.S. through 2019
Information on NTTO’s nine ongoing market analysis (research) programs
Updated monthly statistics on arrivals and departures
Late-breaking TI News announcements and information releases
Links and information on the Commerce, Commercial Service Travel & Tourism Team in the USA & abroad
Links to other organizations in the travel industry
Sign up for TINews, NTTO’s FREE news service,
for the latest in tourism industry news and program updates
So, I hope you will book mark the OTTI/NTTO website and use us as a starting point for market research.
We have several complementary and interrelated data bases that can help answer the questions you need answers to.
We would also like to encourage you to look for additional indices and market intelligence, and contact your local city and state tourism bureaus to tap the research they obtain from our office.
Plus, there is another resource for within Commerce, and that is our sister agency the Commercial Service. They too have a series of products and services that can also help you be more successful in the international market.
If you have not signed up for our free Tinews service to be kept informed of the latest information on the international market, I would also like to encourage you to do so as well.

24. Thank You! Questions? Ron Erdmann
National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO)
International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
Phone:
NTTO General Office Number: (202)
I want to thank the conference organizers for allowing me to be there today, and I want to thank all of you for participating in this session.
If you would like to contact me, or visit or website, or call our office, the contact information is provided here.
With that, do you have any questions? 24