1. U.S. Government Nuclear Forensics Operations
September 16, 2014
Jeffrey Morrison
Program Manager
National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center

2. The Challenge: Nuclear Terrorism is a Persistent Threat
“I continue to believe that nuclear terrorism remains one of the greatest threats to global security. That’s why working to prevent nuclear terrorism is going to remain one of my top national security priorities as long as I have the privilege of being President of the United States.” President Obama (NDU, 3 Dec 2012)
A nuclear attack would change our way of life.
Terrorists have called for a nuclear attack on the US.
The availability of nuclear and radiological material continues to increase as nations develop the capability to produce nuclear power.
Nuclear terrorism remains an enduring risk because of its potential consequences.

3. IAEA Illicit Trafficking Data
The IAEA reports over 2160 incidents of illicit trafficking of nuclear material between 1993 & 2011
Source: IAEA Incident &Trafficking Database

4. DHS’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office
DNDO was established in DHS as an interagency office in 2005 (NSPD 43/HSPD 14) and authorized by the 2006 SAFE Port Act.
“To improve the Nation’s capability to detect and report unauthorized attempts to import, possess, store, develop, or transport nuclear or radiological material for use against the Nation, and to further enhance this capability over time.”
DNDO’s National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center was established in 2006 (NSPD 17/HSPD 4) and authorized by the 2010 Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act (P.L ).
“To ensure an enduring national technical nuclear forensics capability to strengthen the collective response of the United States to nuclear terrorism or other nuclear attacks.”

5. Nuclear Forensics: from Deterrence to Attribution
Trace origin of materials to help identify and close smuggling networks.
Inform national response decisions.
Disrupt follow-on event.
Support prosecution.
Enhance deterrence.
Intelligence
Community }
Technical
Nuclear
Forensics
All-source
info fused
Law
Enforcement
Through its support to attribution, nuclear forensics plays a role across the entire nuclear defense spectrum from deterrence to attribution – both pre-event and post event.
These are priorities for nuclear forensics – to support deterrence; counter nuclear smuggling; in the event of an attack or interdiction -- assist the investigation and disrupt follow on attacks; inform national response options; and support prosecution efforts.
Technical nuclear forensics conclusions, information from IC and LE fused to develop attribution assessment.
Materials
Device
Debris
Deter-
Dissuade
Detect
Interdict
Render
Safe
Post-Det
Cons. Mgmt.
Secure
Attribution
Recovery
Nuclear Defense Spectrum

6. U.S. Policy
“Renewing the U.S. commitment to hold fully accountable any state, terrorist group, or other non-state actor that supports or enables terrorist efforts to obtain or use WMD, whether by facilitating, financing, or providing expertise or safe haven for such efforts.”
Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010
How do we discover those accountable?

7. LEAD AGENCY INVESTIGATION
Interagency Mission
DoD
FBI
DOE
DOS
DHS
ODNI
POST-DET
LEAD AGENCY INVESTIGATION
PRE- TO POST- DET
INTERNATIONAL
PRE-DET MATERIALS
INTELLIGENCE
ANL
INL
LANL
LLNL
NBL
NIST
ORNL
PNNL
Y-12
DoD Labs
SRNL
SNL
A multi-agency mission built on the technical foundation of the national laboratories and US Air Force.
This graphic illustrates the inherently interagency nature of the USG TNF capability – 6 Federal D/As, each with specific roles and responsibilities, supported by a foundation of technical expertise at the DOE National Laboratories. DHS, through DNDO, serves as the USG integrator/steward of the NTNF program and also as pre-det materials capability provider. The Defense Department leads in the post-det nuclear debris capability. Department of Energy has the pre-det device capability, as well as responsibility for/oversight of the national laboratories where most of the TNF work is done. Within the United States, and in other specific cases, FBI leads the investigative aspect of any terrorism incident, and the State department takes the lead in most international cases. Of course, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence corrals the intelligence community under its purview.
The foundation of our national technical nuclear forensics capability is the strong scientific expertise and operational resources within the national laboratory system. New Brunswick Lab and the resources of NIST are relied on for help in the development of standardized and validated methodologies and standard reference materials.

8. DNDO’s Primary Interlocking Nuclear Forensics Missions

9. USG Integration and Readiness
Joint planning
National Strategic Plan, Implementation Plan, Annual Review to Congress
Executive Council, Steering Committee, Working Groups
Nuclear Forensics Requirements Center
Joint exercising
“Snowmaggedon” in New York
“Prominent Hunt” in Indiana
International (“Iron Koala” & “Galaxy Serpent”)
Attribution TTX
Joint assessments
National Academy of Sciences: “Nuclear Forensics: A Capability at Risk”
OSTP “Nuclear Defense R&D Roadmap”
Pipeline and Workforce studies
DNDO’s NTNFC leads the integration of the USG interagency through joint planning, exercising and assessments.

10. Technology Advancement for Materials
Signature Discovery
Improving Analysis Methods
Certified Reference Materials and Performance Testing
Pattern Recognition and Other Evaluation Tools
Material Production Timelines

11. Academic Pathway to a Nuclear Forensics Career
National Nuclear Forensics Expertise Development Program
DNDO leading effort to restore the expertise pipeline – back from the brink
Provided support to over 300 students and faculty and 23 universities since 2008, in close partnership with 11 national labs
19 new PhD nuclear forensic scientists in the workforce; on track to meet near-term milestone of 35 new PhDs by 2018
Program now viewed as model – Nuclear Security Summit 2014; future IAEA collaboration
Relies on Multi-Disciplinary Expertise:
Radiochemists
Geochemists
Analytical Chemists
Nuclear Engineers
Reactor Engineers
Process Engineers
Physicists
Nuclear Physicists
Statisticians
Metallurgists
Undergraduate
Scholarships, Summer School
Post-doctoral
Fellowships
Junior Faculty Awards
National Lab Mentoring
Graduate
Fellowships, Internships
University Education Awards
Multi-Year R&D Funding

12. Nuclear Forensics International Cooperation
Strengthening international collaboration is essential: Develops nuclear forensics core capabilities, shares best practices and lessons learned, and builds NF community
Forum
Members
Focus
Key Products
54 Heads-of-State (Invited)
Effective momentum to existing NF efforts
Nuclear Security Summit Work Plan, Communique
85 Partner Nations (Volunteer)
Policy: NF capabilities awareness, best practices, TTXs
NF Fundamentals Document, Iron Koala, NF Information Sharing
162 Member States
NF guidance and training for member states
Nuclear Security Series Documents, IAEA NF Training
International scientists and law enforcement (volunteer)
Technical forum and information exchange, analytical exercises
Comparative Lab Analysis Exercises; National NF Libraries TOR

13. Quality Assurance
“You have to be right – and you have to be able to prove that you’re right”
Michael Chertoff
Former Secretary of Homeland Security
NTNFC Program Review – 29 July 2013

14. QA Systems in Nuclear Forensics
Measurements must be scientifically and legally defensible
‘Daubert’ Standard
Empirical testing: whether the theory or technique is falsifiable, refutable, and/or testable.
Whether it has been subjected to peer review and publication.
The known or potential error rate.
The existence and maintenance of standards and controls concerning its operation.
The degree to which the theory and technique is generally accepted by a relevant scientific community.
QA systems are used to provide a high level of confidence and reliability in nuclear forensics measurements
ISO Accreditation
Annual Proficiency Testing
Annual Audits
Certified Reference Materials
Methodology Benchmarking Studies
Exercises

15. Certified Reference Material Traceability Chain
Nuclear Forensics
Certified Reference Material
Traceability Chain
ANSI N42.23
BIPM
CCQM/CCRI (Core Competencies)
InterLab Comparisons
Bq, g
National Metrology Institutes:
(NIST, IRMM, LNHB, NRC, NPL, PTB, etc.)
SRMs/CRMs
Isotopics/Assay
Measurement Traceability & Evaluations
(IRMM NUSIMEP/REIMEP Mass)
Nuclear Forensics
MQO/QC Requirements
FBI, NMIP, DOE/NNSA, DoD, DHS
Reference Laboratory:
DOE/NBL
InterLaboratory Comparisons
LANL Pu Exchange
AWE U Exchange
IRMM NUSIMEP/REIMEP
CRMs
Meas Eval Prog
(Mass, Isotopics)
CRM
Measurements
Other Nat’l/Int’l Measurement Laboratories: (AWE, IAEA, CEA, ITU etc.)
Measurement Laboratories: National Labs (INL, LLNL, LANL, PNL, SRNL, ORNL, etc.)

16. Methodology Benchmarking Studies
Methodology Benchmarking Studies Designed to Establish:
Data on the accuracy and precision of analytical methods used by different laboratories, including variation within and between laboratories.
The most appropriate analytical methods for determining required TNF conclusions.
A set of modern baselines and expectations for nuclear measurement performance.
A compendium of “best practices” and “best standard operating procedures” for TNF.
Strengths and weaknesses in measurement capability.
Data for method validation and laboratory quality assurance.
Uranium Methodology Benchmarking Completed in FY11
Plutonium Methodology Benchmarking Completed in FY12
Trace Actinides in Uranium Benchmarking Completed in FY14
Trace Actinides in Plutonium Benchmarking Underway

17. Key Points Nuclear forensics supports (does not equal) attribution
Technical conclusions may be crucial to USG’s case
May help to deter the facilitators (not the terrorists themselves)
NTNF is a tightly coordinated multi-agency, cross-disciplinary mission
The expertise pipeline is rebounding – promising career path
QA is critical to ensuring defensible results
“You have to be right – and you have to be able to prove that you’re right”
Expectation management is crucial: “Substantial capabilities exist today, but much work remains to be done in order for capabilities to match expectations.”