1. World Population Problems Nature of the World Population Problem Nature of the World Population Problem –Stable population for 8,000 years –Survival precarious for most people –Since 1650 there has been rapid population growth

2. World Population Growth

3. Population variables Population increases are a function of three variables, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration Population increases are a function of three variables, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration Population formula: Population formula: –Population (now) = Population (then) + (births-deaths) +/- Migration

4. World Population Growth World Population Growth –8,000 BC to 1650 AD = 500 million –1650 AD to 2000 AD = 5.6 billion –50,000 new mouths to feed every year in first period –50,000 new mouths to feed every 6 minutes today. –90 million people added every year today

5. Malthus’ Explanation of Population Growth Malthus’ Explanation of Population Growth –Thomas Malthus Essay on Population –Population grows as exponential rate (2,4,8,16,32,64) –Food production grows at arithmetical rate (1,2,3,4,5) –Population increases faster that food production

6. Validity of Malthus’ Predictions Validity of Malthus’ Predictions –Malthus proved to be poor prophet in 18 th and 19 th C –Famine, disease, war did not result in decreased world population –Was Malthus premature? –Paul Erlich’s Population Bomb (neo-Malthusian position) vs. Julian Simon’s Population as the Ultimate Resource. (cornucopian position)

7. Neo-Malthusian position Population growth straining the world’s resources Population growth straining the world’s resources Destruction of forests for development and/or food production Destruction of forests for development and/or food production Energy and mineral consumption taxes resources Energy and mineral consumption taxes resources Over-fishing Over-fishing Widening gap between rich and poor Widening gap between rich and poor Inadequate development, refugee problems, donor fatigue Inadequate development, refugee problems, donor fatigue Belief in environmental responsibility leading to sustainable growth Belief in environmental responsibility leading to sustainable growth

8. Cornucopian position Life expectancy doubled in 20 th C (30yrs to 60 yrs) Life expectancy doubled in 20 th C (30yrs to 60 yrs) Global health and productivity expanding Global health and productivity expanding Overpopulation is scare talk of environmentalists Overpopulation is scare talk of environmentalists The real issue of poverty not breeding The real issue of poverty not breeding Technology will solve all human problems Technology will solve all human problems Population growth creates jobs, opens markets, expands opportunities Population growth creates jobs, opens markets, expands opportunities Ecologists want sustainability; cornucopian economists want economic growth, exploitation of markets and resources Ecologists want sustainability; cornucopian economists want economic growth, exploitation of markets and resources

9. Reasons for Rapid Population Growth Reasons for Rapid Population Growth –The Demographic transition (from high birth rate and high death rate to low birth rate and low death rate) –Population growth is a function of three variables: fertility, mortality and migration –Formula: Population now = Population (then) +/- (births-deaths) +/- migration

10. Demographic Transition Demographic Transition –Stage I Preindustrial economy Preindustrial economy High birth rates and high death rates High birth rates and high death rates Stable population that grows slowly Stable population that grows slowly Large number of children who perform useful work in fields Large number of children who perform useful work in fields Children provide social security system in old age Children provide social security system in old age Life expectancy low; security dependent on your family Life expectancy low; security dependent on your family

11. –Stage II High birth rates with falling death rates High birth rates with falling death rates Improvements in public health, sanitation, medicine that prolongs life Improvements in public health, sanitation, medicine that prolongs life Productivity of agriculture improves Productivity of agriculture improves Opportunity for alternative employment due to industrial development Opportunity for alternative employment due to industrial development Industrialization stimulates urbanization and specialization of labor Industrialization stimulates urbanization and specialization of labor

12. –Stage III Birth rate declines rapidly Birth rate declines rapidly Smaller families due to urbanization and demands for education Smaller families due to urbanization and demands for education Children are more of a liability financially and economically Children are more of a liability financially and economically Population growth declines dramatically Population growth declines dramatically

13. –Stage IV Birth rates and death rates fall Birth rates and death rates fall Population stabilizes at lower level Population stabilizes at lower level Demand for education high Demand for education high Modern economy and urban environment make large families less necessary Modern economy and urban environment make large families less necessary Governments adopt social security programs Governments adopt social security programs