1. California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification Electricity and Natural Gas Model Inputs Workshop Rosenfeld Hearing Room February 26, 2015 Aniss Bahreinian Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division aniss.bahreinian@energy.ca.gov/ 916-653-0381 1

2. California Energy Commission Transportation Electrification 2

3. California Energy Commission Off-Road Transportation with Electrification Option (Source: EPRI, 2011 http://www.smartgridinformation.info/pdf/4525_doc_1.pdf )http://www.smartgridinformation.info/pdf/4525_doc_1.pdf 3

4. California Energy Commission Transportation Energy Forecasting Models Sector-specific demand models, each representing consumption behavior of that sector All economic models, accounting for the impact of time and/or cost of an activity or a product, as well as income and/or economic output in the choice process Account for tank-to-wheel energy consumption only 4

5. California Energy Commission Light Duty Vehicle Demand (LDV) Forecasting Models Use behavioral models to forecast statewide population of on- road Electric Vehicles (EV) and Plug in Hybrid Electric (PHEV) in California, separately for commercial and residential sectors The LDV models account for inter-fuel competition, between all fuel types, as well as competition between different classes of vehicles, on: Fuel Prices Vehicle Prices Fuel Economy Range Other vehicle and fueling attributes Use a simple growth model to forecast Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEV) 5

6. California Energy Commission Other Transportation Electricity Use Statewide Electricity Use (Tank to Wheel) Light Rail/Other electrified urban transit High Speed Rail (post-processed, using Cal HSR assumptions and output) On-Road goods movement & service trucks (Freight) Transportation Communication and Utilities (TCU) electricity demand model forecasts the stationary use of electricity in transportation-related facilities and buildings, such as transit stations, rail stations, high speed rail stations, fuel stations and others. Aspen Environmental Group will be forecasting electricity used in: Sea ports & airports Other off-road stationary and mobile equipment uses of electricity in transportation 6

7. California Energy Commission Key Inputs Specific to On-Road Transportation Energy Demand Forecast Energy Prices Staff forecast of petroleum-based fuel prices is based on EIA crude oil price forecasts. Electricity and natural gas price forecasts are the same as those used in the division’s electricity and natural gas demand models. Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEV) Vehicle prices, fuel economy, and other attributes will be provided by Sierra Research. Consumer Preferences Assume these preferences remain constant, at levels assessed by the Commission’s 2013 California Vehicle Survey 7

8. California Energy Commission Other Transportation Electrification Assumptions and Inputs No preference-based or economic models exist to forecast off-road vehicle or equipment populations. Aspen Environmental Group will attempt to use projections or extrapolations of present inventories from different agencies, such as ARB, EIA, ports, airports, and other existing studies of the various applications. 8

9. California Energy Commission Proposed Demand Cases IEPR Common Cases High Energy Demand (low energy prices, high income) Mid Energy Demand (mid energy prices and income) Low Energy Demand (high energy prices, low income) Transportation-Specific Demand Cases High petroleum demand (low liquid fuel prices; high income; high CNG, electricity & hydrogen prices) Low petroleum demand (high liquid fuel prices; low income; low CNG, electricity & hydrogen prices) All Demand Cases Assume: Vehicles: All current Fed & State regs are in place for original equipment manufacturers, including Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV). Fuels: All current Fed & State regs are in place for transportation fuel suppliers. Vehicle & liquid fuel prices are independent of California demand. 9

10. California Energy Commission Interested? Please attend the March 19, 2015 Workshop on Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecast 10