1. IS THE ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET TRULY GOING TO BE SINGLE? Dr. Alan Khee-Jin Tan Professor of Aviation Law Faculty of Law, National University of Singapore

2. Market Opportunities after Open Skies Intra-ASEAN International Markets up to 2000 nm [Source: Embraer, 2014] Kota-Kinabalu Kuala Namu Singapore Jakarta Surabaya Denpesar Kuching Ho Chi Minh Bangkok Yangon Phuket

3. ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET 3 rd /4 th Freedom: Capital to Capital – note Jakarta now open!

4. Indonesia – Liberalization Benefits Source: CARI Lifting the Barriers Report, 2013 Additional GDP 7 trillion Rupiah (US$679 million) [6% increase from 2010 levels] Additional jobs created 32,000 [7% increase from 2010 levels] Decrease in real air fares2.5% per annum Additional international passenger traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies 16.3 million per year by 2025 [24.5% of total additional international traffic over 2010 levels] Additional international air freight traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies 290,000 tonnes per year by 2025 [21.6% of total additional international air freight traffic over 2010 levels]

5. 3 rd /4 th Freedom: Any Home Point to Another Point, including non-capitals; Indonesia and Laos still not parties

6. 5 th Freedoms: open too. BUT what if..… (!) KUL RGN SIN

7. What’s Missing (for post-2015): 7 th freedom? Cabotage/Domestic/8 th /9 th ? – sensitive! Community Carrier without restrictions Technical harmonization? Start with harmonized (need not be identical) standards and mutual recognition. E.g. pilot and crew certification, safety checks and enforcement

8. ASEAN Airlines with 7 th Freedom and Multiple Bases

9. ASEAN-China: Unlimited 3 rd /4 th to & from China; plus some 5ths

10. Compare: Chinese Airlines’ Network to ASEAN!!

11. ASEAN Airlines’ IDEAL Network to China with 7 th Freedom

12. ASEAN-China 5th Freedoms. Meaningless with secondary cities only

13. What’s Missing Again (for post-2015): 7 th freedom? Cabotage/Domestic/8 th /9 th ? - sensitive Community Carrier without restrictions Technical harmonization? Pilot and crew certification, safety checks and enforcement