1. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Activity 5: Managing Forests for Change

2. Systems A system is… a set of variables that interact with each other and with the environment

3. Systems are Everywhere Solar system Sun, planets, asteroids, gravity, energy, satellites… Producers, harvesters, processors, marketers, consumers… Students, teachers, administrators, schools, buses, curriculum, FCAT… Food system School system

4. Key Characteristics of Systems Variables Interconnectedness Dynamic Self Organization Stable States Tipping Points Feedback Loops

5. What is Systems Thinking? A way of viewing the whole instead of the parts Helps us understand complex phenomena – Not only direct cause and effect – Examines indirect connections Helps us identify – Underlying causes – Places where we might change the system

6. One Tool for Seeing Systems A diagram or map to model the system – Causal loop diagram Links variables in relationships 1.Identify the variables 2.Decide how they influence each other HungerEat food ?

7. Connecting Variables Example: Grades 1.If variables move in the SAME direction – If A goes up, B goes up – If A goes down, then B goes down 2.If variables move in OPPOSITE directions – If A goes up, then B goes down – If A goes down, then B goes up Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test A B S O ?

8. Connecting Variables Example: Grades Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test A B S

9. Studying and Grades Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test AB S Amount of time watching TV 1.Variables move in the SAME direction – If A goes up, B goes up – If A goes down, then B goes down 2.Variables move in OPPOSITE directions – If A goes up, then B goes down – If A goes down, then B goes up S O ?

10. Studying and Grades Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test AB S Amount of time watching TV O

11. Studying and Grades Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test S Amount of time watching TV O S

12. And a Forest Is a System! Many things influence Tree growth and forest health Trees and forests influence many things

13. Forest Concepts (Variables) for Systems Diagram Forest density Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water Available nutrients Available water

14. Tree Growth Growth per Tree Gain of new Trees Loss of dead Trees

15. Forest Density High Density Low Density

16. Disease Scale Infestation on pine needles Fusiform rust

17. Fuel Load and Wildfire Thick undergrowth increases chance of a high-intensity wildfire. A prescribed fire can reduce that understory.

18. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load Available nutrients Available water Forest density Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

19. Tree disease Risk of Tree disease Building a Forest Systems Diagram

20. Tree disease Risk of Tree disease S

21. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire Understory fuel load

22. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire Understory fuel load S

23. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S

24. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S X S

25. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S

26. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

27. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S

28. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O

29. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire High-intensity wildfire

30. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O

31. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O

32. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O

33. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O

34. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O

35. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S O O Available nutrients Available water O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

36. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Forest density O O S O Available nutrients Available water O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

37. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Forest density O O S O Available nutrients Available water O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

38. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water S O

39. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O S O

40. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O S S O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water

41. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water S S O

42. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O S S O S

43. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Tree growth Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease High-intensity wildfire Understory fuel load S S S Available nutrients Available water Forest density O O O O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O S S O O O S