1. APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015

2. ResultsToolsOverviewImpacts 2

3. OVERVIEW 3

4. 4 15 NEW MODELS 375 Residential Non-Residential Multi-Sector

5. APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes

6. 45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW (2010-2034) 6

7. IMPACTS 7

8. 2008 External Power Supplies Commercial Unit Heaters 2009 Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2010 Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Commercial Package AC and HP including Single Package Vertical Units 2011 2012 Dehumidifiers Incandescent Reflector Lamps General Service Fluorescent Lamps Kitchen Ranges & Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines General Service Incandescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration Equipment WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS?

9. 9 2015 Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Water Heaters Small Electric Motors 2016 Electric Motors Distribution Transformers External Power Supplies Microwave Ovens 2017 Walk-in Coolers & Freezers Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures 2018 Ice Makers 2013 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 2014 Refrigerators & Freezers Room AC 2019 Furnace Fans

10. STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT 10 DOE Standards Emerging Tech Support Market “Pull” and Demand Creation

11. DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 11 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up

12. INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX 12 New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Before New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Roll-Up

13. PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS 13 $1,600 $800

14. STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS 14 Wattage Range

15. STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline Standard-size vented clothes dryers 3% Current Standards 32% Maximum feasible efficiency 15

16. TOOLS 16

17. MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized TemplatesFamiliarity 17

18. MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized ModelsCohesion 18

19. MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES GuidesUsability 19

20. SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 20 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings

21. SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 21 Annual kWh Per Unit Model Pre-Case Shipment UEC Model Post-Case Shipment UEC

22. SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 22 Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings

23. FLOW 23 STOCK

24. 24 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2006INSTALLED STOCK IN 2007INSTALLED STOCK IN 2008INSTALLED STOCK IN 2009INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010

25. STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW 25 Shipments Stock Lifetime Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space

26. Shipments Incremental Savings SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 26 Change in Unit Energy Consumption

27. 27 Weighted Average UECs Usage Statistics Efficiency Distributions Product Class Distributions

28. ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28

29. INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER 29

30. NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30

31. INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31

32. INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32

33. RESULTS 33

34. SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 34 End UseResidentialNon-Residential Analysis CycleRound 1Round 2Round 1Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous

35. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Heat Pumps Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters 8% 5% 28% 54% 2015

36. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Electric Furnace Fans Refrigerators Water Heaters 12% 5% 14% 24% 45% 2020

37. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar RESIDENTIAL Other Freezers Refrigerators Water Heaters Electric Furnace Fans 5% 13% 18% 51% 2034

38. 85% Distribution Transformers 0% 2% 6% 7% Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Electric Motors Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Commercial Washer 2015

39. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Ref. Equipments Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 5% 2% 15% 20% 58% 2020

40. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar NON-RESIDENTIAL Other Commercial Washer Walk-In Coolers & Freezers Electric Motors Distribution Transformers 1% 3% 20% 75% 2034

41. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers 35% 65% 2015

42. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 36% 48% 16% 2020

43. Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar UNIVERSAL Small Electric Motors Battery Chargers External Power Supplies 17% 31% 52% 2034

44. CONTACT Carrie Cobb clcobb@bpa.gov 503.230.4985 Ben Barrington bbarrington@cadeogroup.com 781.354.7070 Angie Lee Angie.Lee@navigant.com 415.356.7145 44