Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
Bold Alligator Road to War Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
4/17/2017 Agenda Introduction Orientation Political Dynamics Military Dynamics VEO Dynamics Social Influences External Influence Crisis Assessment Alternative Futures

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
Introduction UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

Recent Events MAY 2014: Anti-government demonstration 5 NGO sponsored IDP camps established 1 NGO sponsored refugee camp in Ft. Bragg Gernatian rhetoric claims ethnic persecution Platoon-sized border incursions from Garnet into Amber Minor violence escalates as the government ignores the publics demands 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 6 Further info on May events: 1- Protesting lack of jobs, food, medical supplies, high cost of living 2- IDP camps located at Selma, Goldsboro, Greenville 1 and 2, Atlantic Field 3- IDP camp established 4-no further info 5-no further info 6- Violence escalates as Amber government ignores the group’s demands 5 3 4 6

Recent Events JUN 2014: Ji’ Stern Militia (JM) in Western Amberland involved in PHARM rearm-refit effort SOF conducts operations in Amberland, Amber, Pyrope and Mica Fishing vessels robbed along Amberland coastline Sanitation workers go on strike NGO medical supplies hijacked from IDP camps Smalls arms seized by government forces in a Jacksonville warehouse 1 2 3 2 1 3 4 5 4 6 5 Further explanation on the events listed: 1-no further info 2-no further info 3-fishing vessels were boarded and robbed 4-sanitation workers go on strike over unsafe conditions, violence against them, and sporadic pay 5-NGO medical supplies hampered by theft in IDP camps/medical supplies hijacked en route to hospitals in amberland by criminal organizations 6-no further info 6

Recent Events JUL 2014: PHARM sponsored riots Anti-government groups begin fighting amongst themselves PHARM seizes petroleum infrastructure 3 Bomb explosions outside government facilities in Jacksonville Mass demonstration occurs in Amberland announcing Government policy Deputy Mayor of Wilmington assassinated Foreign investors withdraw workers and money from Amberland 1 2 3 4 1 3 4 5 5 2 6 7 Further explanation on the events listed: 1-PHARM riots due to the government failing to adequately provide security to civilian or government property 2-along with the fighting the amber security forces are unable to control escalating violence 3-no further info 4-bomb explosion outside of government communications facility in jacksonville; no injuries but PHARM takes credit for bombing 2nd bombing outside the post office in new bern; injures 3 people but PHARM takes credit for it 3rd bombing outside government personnel office in jacksonville; injures 10 5-mass demonstrates denounce government policies, high unemployment, sanitary conditions, and civil security 6-assassinated en route to work in a drive by 7-foreign investors withdraws workers and money as a result farming, manufacturing, and mining industries output decreases 6 7

Recent Events 1-10 AUG 2014: Naval Expeditionary Force (NEF) begins to conduct Theater Security Cooperation UN compound under imminent unconventional attack Government request coalition aid to reduce uprising Coalition presence in the Treasure Coast denounced Government announces rationing of fuel Food riot in IDP camps at Fort Bragg Sporting events cancelled due to security concerns 2 3 5 6 3 7 4 5 1-NEF (CTF 956) location is UNK. NEF assets include: EODGRU TWO, NMCB 5, NMCB 1, CRS 4, NCHB 11, IET, COMCAM, and Forward Deployed Preventative Medicine Unit (FDPMU) 2-no further info 3-VEO destabilization efforts in northern amber increase leading to request US assistance 4-and also conducts a naval exercise off the coast of amber/amberland as a show force. Garnet is a suspect of increasing support to regional VEOs 5-no further info 6-no further info 7-no further info 2 4 6 7

Recent Events 21-27 AUG 2014: Amberland requests US assistance NEF conducts MPF off-load MEU conducts Long Range Raid in Beaufort targeting HVI NEF concludes MPF off-load MEU conducts TLAM/TACAIR strike on PIA weapons cache and assembly area MEU conducts reinforcement of Wilmington Oil pump station MEU establishes FOB at Wilmington Naval Base 2 to conduct FID/COIN 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 4 6 Further information on numbered events: 1-no further info 2-actual event takes place in pyrope (no date on when it began) 3-no further 4-actual event takes place in pyrope and returns to port to HN (no date on when it concluded) 5-no further info 6-no further info 7-no further info 3 5 6 7 7

Orientation UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

4/17/2017 Area of Operations

Historical Background
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 4/17/2017 Historical Background Garnet Granted independence in 1949 Garnet received land in the Northern portion of Amber (North Garnet) 2013, Lakeland Silence Movement began 2014, Spiritual Leader’s reached an agreement to form Republic of Pyrope Amber In 1960, The Republic of Amber formed Conflicts constantly reoccurring In1993, United Nations established a multinational peacekeeping force Transitional Affiliated National Government (TANG) created to represent all ethnic factions in Amber, which later failed Garnet The region was formally declared a British protectorate in 1870 with Yusef Zubair as a king Early 1950s, Nabil Zubair created an extensive security regime to crack down on protestors Amber 1959; Dialogues resulted in the removal of the British and Italian influence in the region First Prime Minister of Amber, Dr. Arnold Kardla elected? United Nations established a multinational peacekeeping force to control the factions, stabilize the government, and provide humanitarian aid

Historical Background
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 4/17/2017 Historical Background Amberland Independent state formed when internal fighting spread throughout Amber Four clans attempted to create a religious government Immediately after secession, PHARM took the role of governing forces of Amberland PHARM was later removed from government Garnet The region was formally declared a British protectorate in 1870 with Yusef Zubair as a king Early 1950s, Nabil Zubair created an extensive security regime to crack down on protestors Amber 1959; Dialogues resulted in the removal of the British and Italian influence in the region First Prime Minister of Amber, Dr. Arnold Kardla elected? United Nations established a multinational peacekeeping force to control the factions, stabilize the government, and provide humanitarian aid

4/17/2017 Economic Garnet Amber Estimated GDP at $145 billion Exports are estimated at $15.8 billion Imports are estimated at $8.2 billion Major Trade partners Oil exports accounts for 20% GDP Industrial manufacturing accounts for 15% Service industry accounts for 35% of GDP Agriculture and mining accounts for 35% of GDP Estimated GDP at $15 billion since 1992 Stock rearing accounts for 50% of GDP and 45% of export earnings Petroleum accounts for 35% of GDP and 40% of export revenue Manufacturing and Services is 15% of GDP Exports are estimated $9 billion annually Imports estimated at $8 billion annually Neighboring countries imposed export band on Amber livestock Garnet Consisting of primarily of crude oil petro products and natural gas Consist primarily of military technology, machinery, transport equipment and food Western Europe, Africa, Asia, Onyx, Mica, Sapphire Shahida base charities bring in $8 billion a year Amber Foreign debt is 30% of GDP Agriculture was crippled during regional banning of Amber livestock Approximately 6 million cubic meters of natural gas each year Consisting primarily of livestock, crude oil, petro products and natural gas Consisting mostly of foodstuff, capital goods and consumer goods

4/17/2017 Economic Cont. Amberland Estimated GDP at $750 million Exports are hides, skins, coffee Imports are food, beverages, chemicals, petroleum products, 11,330 barrels of oil per day Several moderate sized coal mines and one oil refinery Industrial manufacturing accounts for 15% of GDP Service industry accounts for 35% of GDP Agriculture Limited rainfall and recent droughts have made crop production difficult Rurally herding goats, sheep, meat, and milk production Garnet Consisting of primarily of crude oil petro products and natural gas Consist primarily of military technology, machinery, transport equipment and food Western Europe, Africa, Asia, Onyx, Mica, Sapphire Shahida base charities bring in $8 billion a year Amber Foreign debt is 30% of GDP Agriculture was crippled during regional banning of Amber livestock Approximately 6 million cubic meters of natural gas each year Consisting primarily of livestock, crude oil, petro products and natural gas Consisting mostly of foodstuff, capital goods and consumer goods

Political Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

4/17/2017 Political Structure Garnet Amber Executive Branch President: Gamal Wakil, received public ridicule after cooperating with US Defense Minister: Karim Sulaiman Foreign Minister: Hosni Siraj Legislative Branch National Upper Assembly: Alaad al-Burr National Lower Assembly: Gareel Mulsoor National Courts Grand Spiritual Leader: Hamzah Mahdi An emergent factor is the Student Solidarity Union (SSU) Executive Branch President: Dr. Edjear Hapsalu Prime Minister: Andres Rakvere Defense Minister (also the Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces) Legislative Branch Parliament: The People’s Assembly 245 members Judicial Branch Clan-based militias establish Shahida courts Clans enforce street law Divided into 4 regions Population felt betrayed when Amberland seceded from Amber and in response TANG support increased Amber Clan-based militias establish Shahida courts Clans enforce street law, leading to widespread human rights abuse Formal political parties do not exist in Amber Divided into 4 regions, each governed by a Regional Revolutionary Council Garnet Formal political parties do not exist in Garnet since under Shahida “all are to be equal” An emergent factor is the Student Solidarity Union (SSU) SSU is a national organization with representation from at least 30 of Garnet’s major universities organization representation by 30 of Garnet’s major universities Garnet public outcry started when president Gamal Wakil cooperated with US government in allowing them to covertly operate within garnet to reduce PHARM in Garnet

4/17/2017 Political Structure Amberland Executive Branch President: Ahmed Polva Two appointed prime ministers Legislative Branch Consists of fifty seat unicameral assembly Council of elders appoints current representatives Judicial Branch Council of elders establish the supreme court Courts resort to shahida and have no experience in secular law Amber Clan-based militias establish Shahida courts Clans enforce street law, leading to widespread human rights abuse Formal political parties do not exist in Amber Divided into 4 regions, each governed by a Regional Revolutionary Council Garnet Formal political parties do not exist in Garnet since under Shahida “all are to be equal” An emergent factor is the Student Solidarity Union (SSU) SSU is a national organization with representation from at least 30 of Garnet’s major universities organization representation by 30 of Garnet’s major universities

Military Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Military Orientation
4/17/2017 Garnet Military Orientation Garnish Maneuver Warfare Doctrine is based partially from former Soviet Union tactics Garnetian Army is composed of approximately 120,000 peacetime personal and 10,000-15,000 reserves Garnet Airforce are in command of 11 airfields Garnet Navy: 14 naval bases Second largest Army in the region Ground force is assessed to be capable of defending the country in a conventional war against any bordering neighbors Not capable of conducting simultaneous offensive operations against more than one country at a time Relies heavily on mass fires, rapid seizure of tactical objective, and combined arms battle concept Major airbase: Columbus Metro Legend Airfields: Navy Bases: Legend Naval base: Airfields:

Amber Military Orientation
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 4/17/2017 Amber Military Orientation Amber Coastal Defense Missile Force 3 sites Amber Air Defense Force 35 SAM sites Amber Coastal Surveillance Radar Sites 3 CSV Radar Sites Amber Ground Forces Major Unit: 1st Mechanized Infantry Division 1st Mechanized Infantry Brigade: 2nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade 3rd Tank Brigade Legend Coastal Missile Defense/radar sites:

Amberland Military Orientation
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 4/17/2017 Security spending focused on internal security forces and first responders Currently dependent upon Western forces for security Little ground forces, less then capable airforce, and lesser naval forces Legend Airfields: Navy Bases:

VEO Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

Clans Garnet Amber Lovisa: 700 Active members Internal threat to Amberland Supports the ideal of the PHARM Self sufficient Hamina: 625 active members Close ties with Paldiski clan Paldiski: Has approximately 600 active members Paldiski’s current strength is mostly due to Hamina’s assistance Kuresare: Is the least active clan in their involvement in the PHARM Tartu: Tartu supports the TANG Valga: Second largest clan Primary focus is strengthening and reinforcing the clan Lahti: Largest of the clans, but not considered the most powerful Guerrilla warfare Rauma: Most influential and pro-TANG Focused primarily on bettering the TANG and strengthening Amber Garnet Lovisa: Fundamentalist ideology and close ties with radicals within Mika and Garnet Not affiliated with any other clan but held accountable by the Hamina and Paldiski clans and vice-versa Hamina: Tied closely with shipping and business community Kuresare Provides the fewest members in support of PHARM Amber Tartu Led by: Anneli Tartu Most Vocal of all clans Valga Led by: Tarja Valga Self serving Lahti: Led by: Gregory Ivalo Rauma: Led by: Juri Rapla

Clans Amberland Lovisa: Hostile towards western rhetoric 60,000 members 2,200 are old potential combatants Hamina: Supporter of western influence Estimated 120,000 members Paldiski: Estimated 110,000 members Kuresare: Estimated 50,000 members Smallest participation with PHARM during separation Garnet Lovisa: Fundamentalist ideology and close ties with radicals within Mika and Garnet Not affiliated with any other clan but held accountable by the Hamina and Paldiski clans and vice-versa Hamina: Tied closely with shipping and business community Kuresare Provides the fewest members in support of PHARM Amber Tartu Led by: Anneli Tartu Most Vocal of all clans Valga Led by: Tarja Valga Self serving Lahti: Led by: Gregory Ivalo Rauma: Led by: Juri Rapla

4/17/2017 VEO Orientation Proper Home for Ambertines Revolutionary Militia (PHARM) Goal: The complete and autonomous establishment operation and success of an Amberland country Supports: Escambian Shahida and Clan-based government Four Clans make up PHARM: Lovisa, Hamina, Paldiski and Kuresare Proper Home for Ambertines Revolutionary in Amber (PIA) Transnational terrorist group to bring together hard line groups to dispose of all religious regimes viewed as impure Ties with the extremist Rocky Mountain Resistance (RMR), Hizballah, and PHARM PIA prefers to attack lightly defended targets Number of members is estimated to be Rocky Mountain Resistance (RMR) Considered to be well organized and able to conduct successful attacks Estimated to have 2,000-3,000 active members Affiliates: Azhar: All workers are expected to be supporters or members of PHARM 90% of Amberland population is affiliated with the four clans that make up PHARM Transnational terrorist group to bring together hard line escambian shahidas to dispose of all religious regimes viewed as impure and infidel and force U.S and coalition forces from the treasure coast region Organization has helped finance transport and train escambian extremist Three main goal and beliefs Drive US and coalition forces from Amber Dispose and discredit any religious based regime that does not comply with the beliefs of the escambian shahidism To establish a shahida caliphate throughout the world PIA headquarters is in Myrtle Beach, XA Leader of PIA is Jibril Al-Tariq Three major Deputies: Manfred Al-tariq, Dr. Neiland Waskowiczk, and Kire Al-Tariq PIA prefers to attack lightly defended targets that support U.S and coalition powers as well as targets representing opposing ideals Rocky mountain resistance (RMR) RMR claims responsibility for Mica independence Conduct attacks on both military and civilian targets Considered to be well organized and able to conduct successful attacks which includes hostage taking and suicide missions has the means to conduct vehicle attacks including suicide bombings, utilizing vehicles boats and small aircraft Tartu Shahida Militia (TSM) Large militant group that was apart of Tartu, annexed its self and created the Ambertine Clan and PHARM Ji’ Stern Militia (JM) Located in western Amber involved in supporting PHARM Legend RMR AO: PHARM AO: PIA AO:

Social Influences UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

4/17/2017 Culture Garnet Country population: 27 million Language: Garnetian Religion: 96% of the population is Shahida Quality is deteriorating and doctors are assessed to be less qualified Amber Country Population: 10 million Language: Ambertine Majority of Ambertines speak in regional dialect Religion: Majority of the population is Shahida Education: No formal education system No central medical system Garnet Capital city: Columbus population 2 million 60% of the population lives in the Northern Region 50% of the countries population are under the age of 30 Unemployment and limited education leads to high number of applicants that request visas to Mika or Topaz Isolated areas speak tribal languages associated with clans in Amber and Amberland Education: Males not selected for graduate education are eligible for mandatory two year military service based on lottery Government funded education 5 Major Universities, 38 Teacher Training Schools, and 23 Technical Institutes Amber Capital: Columbia 97% of the people in Amber are Ambertines Nearly all Garnetians, and all of the Topazians that once lived in Amber have departed

4/17/2017 Amberland Culture AMBERLAND Garnet Capital city: Columbus population 2 million 60% of the population lives in the Northern Region 50% of the countries population are under the age of 30 Unemployment and limited education leads to high number of applicants that request visas to Mika or Topaz Isolated areas speak tribal languages associated with clans in Amber and Amberland Education: Males not selected for graduate education are eligible for mandatory two year military service based on lottery Government funded education 5 Major Universities, 38 Teacher Training Schools, and 23 Technical Institutes Amber Capital: Columbia 97% of the people in Amber are Ambertines Nearly all Garnetians, and all of the Topazians that once lived in Amber have departed Country population: 350 thousand Language: Ambertine Religion: Shahida All four clans follow Escambian Shahida No central medical system

External Influence UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

External Influence Garnet Garnet is distrustful of Onyx Pyrope contest Garnets occupation of Weasel Island Maintains a close relationship with Amberland, sharing common fundamental religious beliefs and opposition to Amber Amber Receives considerable support from Onyx Maintains diplomatic relations with every country except Garnet Treaty of Seperation between Amber and Amberland Treaty of Lovisa: main focus is to halt hostilities towards Amberland, United States, UN, and Amber Garnet as result of past colonization attempts and border disputes Neighboring states complain that Garnet is doing an insufficient job at policing the Opal islands and the East Garnet Amber Maintains diplomatic relations with every country except Garnet (Due to that country’s strong support of Amberland) Treaty of Seperation between Amber and Amberland, which is being supported by the U.S government Treaty of Lovisa: main focus is to halt hostilities towards Amberland, United States, UN, and Amber. In return the Lovisa family will share all rights and privileges bestowed to the country of Amberland and its people.

External Influence Amberland Common opposition to Amber Close ties with Garnet Garnet gives their support solely to the Lovisa clan Factions with Garnet’s military funnel money and equipment to the Lovisas Garnet as result of past colonization attempts and border disputes Neighboring states complain that Garnet is doing an insufficient job at policing the Opal islands and the East Garnet Amber Maintains diplomatic relations with every country except Garnet (Due to that country’s strong support of Amberland) Treaty of Seperation between Amber and Amberland, which is being supported by the U.S government Treaty of Lovisa: main focus is to halt hostilities towards Amberland, United States, UN, and Amber. In return the Lovisa family will share all rights and privileges bestowed to the country of Amberland and its people.

Crisis Assessment UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

Crisis Assessment Broad Indications Indicators Observed Comments 1. VEOs are willing, able and capable of conducting violent attacks (U) Reporting has shown that PIA and PHARM disagree with western influence and have shown the willingness and capability to conduct attacks. 2. Anti-Western Rhetoric (U) Rhetorical dialogue within Garnet will continue to spread anti-western propaganda. Amber will continue to promote western influence, as long as the continuation of US resources remains. Legend Indicators Routine: Abnormal: Significant: Critical:

Crisis Assessment Broad Indications Indicators Observed Comments 3. Political Instability (U) Due to the political significance of PHARM, PIA, and various VEOs; political stability is likely to decrease substantially in the near future. 4. General Disorder (U) VEOs conduct operations on vital infrastructure, mostly consisting of explosive attacks. (U) PHARM continuously uses drug smuggling as a means of income to obtain weapons. (U) Piracy off the coast of Amber has resulted in the seizure of an oil tanker by PHARM affiliates . Legend Indicators Routine: Abnormal: Significant: Critical:

Alternative Futures UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

US Assistance in Amber High level of assistance Regional stability increased Anti-Western protests Positive impact Negative impact Gradual security improvement Improved security posture by way of US military providing security to Amber’s infrastructure system Increased US influence is causing negative reaction from local government as well as populace Humanitarian Assistance provided by NGOs/non-profit with little to no military assistance Greater public outcry for US assistance Low level of assistance

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Influence in Amber
Political Diplomacy Increased trade relations, border security and improved tribal relations Increased tension regarding borders and natural resources Positive impact Negative impact Combined effort to reduce VEO influence Closed borders and tribal friction Military Intervention

Questions? UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

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Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA

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