1. Modeling Bowhead Whale Habitat: Integration of Ocean Models with Satellite, Biological Survey and Oceanographic Data Dan Pendleton, NOAA / NEAq Jinlun Zhang, Univ. Washington Elizabeth Holmes & Megan Ferguson, NOAA

2. Western Arctic Bowhead Whales Photo: Brenda K. Rone, NOAA/AFSC/NMML Photo: Hopcroft

3. Research Goals Map bowhead whale potential habitat suitability throughout their summer range 25 years aerial survey data Arctic ocean model output Satellite data: Pathfinder, NSIDC-0051: MODIS, SeaWiFS P-PA species distribution models Phase 1: Hindcast from 1988 – 2012 Phase 2: Forecast by forcing ocean model with future climate scenarios Photo: Brenda K. Rone, NOAA/AFSC/NMML

4. Hypotheses & Questions Proof of concept: Can we provide reasonable representations of bowhead whale habitat? Is the spatial resolution of satellite and modeled data sufficient? Measure relative importance of biotic vs abiotic environmental variables Spatial & temporal model transferability: – yes or no SDM comparison: – MaxEnt vs BRT

5. BIOMAS Arctic Ocean Model Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling Assimilation System 3D, Pan-Arctic Highest resolution in Beaufort and Chukchi seas Hourly estimates from 1988- 2013, forecast to 2050 Estimates zooplankton concentrations Provides a good representation of inter-annual variability in ice, chl and temperature Model spatial resolution Zhang et al., 2010, JGR V 115, C10015

6. Study region Clarke, J.T. et al. (2013) OCS Study BOEM 2013-00117. NMML CHUKCHI BEAUFORT

7. Models Habitat Map 1 Habitat Map 2 Habitat Map N t1 t2 tN Time Bowhead whale sightings Data layers Week 1 MaxEnt & BRT Week 2Week N Overlay whale sightings and evaluate habitat maps

8. Train with years 1988- 1994 & 1996-2012 Tested with independent data from 1995 Based upon Depth Zooplankton Temperature Ice Modeled Potential Habitat with MaxEnt and BRT Sep 22-29 Sep 14-21 Sep 6-13 Aug 29-Sep5 Aug 21-28 Maximum Entropy Boosted Regression Tree

9. MaxEnt and BRT model performance

10. Variable Importance for models trained with all years Depth IceTemperature Zooplankton Percent Contribution

11. Variable importance changes Maximum Entropy Boosted Regression Tree Percent Contribution Year

12. TEST Chukchi Sea TRAIN Beaufort Sea ALASKA TEST Beaufort Sea TRAIN Chukchi Sea ALASKA Spatial Transferability: 2008 - 2012

13. BIOMAS Futurecast: anomalies relative to 1988-2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

14. Forecasted Potential Whale Habitat Anomalies in the Beaufort Sea Maximum Entropy Boosted Regression Tree Late year model (1997-2012) Early year model (1988-1996) Month

15. Summary Reasonable representations of hindcasted bowhead whale habitat suitability Variable importance changes with time Models are not transferable in space SDM forecasts suggest that the Beaufort Sea will become a more habitable place for bowhead whales

16. What’s left? Incorporate acoustic detections Analysis of forecasted spatial patterns Marine Model Mapper results outlet

17. Carl Buell Art