1. REDUX: REMAKES, REVIVALS AND RECREATIONS 12 TH ANNUAL CASE CONFERENCE

2. DROUGHT AND SUMMER WEATHER UPDATE CASE Annual Summer Conference June 12, 2015

4. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010s drought

5. Record Low Palmer Severity Index -7.97-7.80 2011

6. Lowest Summer PDSI Since 1550

7. National Drought Monitor October 4, 2011

8. Texas Drought Time Series

9. March-April Rainfall

10. May Rainfall Nationally

11. May Record Rainfall

12. May Rainfall Departure from Normal

13. Texas May Rainfall Stats Rainfall averaged 8.93 inches. Wettest May on record. Wettest month ever (Previous was 6.66 inches in June 2004). Wettest spring on record. Wettest Jan-May on record.

14. Buffalo Bayou-Houston

19. Barton Springs Pool Austin

20. Trinity River Dallas

21. Soil Moisture has Improved

22. Texas Reservoir Levels

25. Comparison with Jan. 1 Jan 6, 2015Jun 9, 2015

26. Blame it (mostly) on El Niño!

27. El Niño in Place, Growing Stronger 27 USAChina Australia

28. Typical Effects of El Niño

29. El Nino

30. Temperature Rainfall

31. NWS Rainfall Outlook

32. NWS Temperature Outlook

33. NMME July-August-September Rainfall Outlook

34. NMME July-August-September Temperature Outlook

35. NMME Sep-Oct-Nov Rainfall Outlook

36. Looking Out Longer Term

37. 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

38. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 38

39. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 39

41. Gray and Klotzback Outlook “We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century”. 8 named storms (average is 12) 3 hurricanes (average is 6.5) 1 major hurricane (category 3,4 5) (average is 2)

42. Tropical Storm Ana

43. Bob Rose LCRA Chief Meteorologist bob.rose@lcra.org512-578-3350 Questions?