1. Standards Unit S1: Ordering Probabilities ~30 mins. Individual activity, no cards. Camera. Mini-whiteboards Suitable for students ~L4

2. Impossible

3. Extremely Unlikely

5. Equally Likely

6. Fairly Likely

7. Most Likely

8. Highly Likely

9. Certain

10. Consumable Resources Needed: Re-usable Resources Needed: ‘Certain’, ‘Unlikely’, ‘Never’ etc. cards. These are laminated so that decimal numbers can be written on them, and erased, too. Mini-whiteboards for each student.

11. Notes to start. Mini-whiteboards for each student. Partners needed for last assessment activity, and possibly at start too. Ensure laminated cards are ‘clean’ from pervious use. Give some of the students (some of) the ‘Likely’, ‘Certain’ cards [Give them all at once for competent groups, or just a selection of the easiest for less-able groups]. Start lesson by asking class to assist them in self-ordering. Add in some other cards if desired. Then fix them in order, with blu-tac around room. When students estimate a numerical value of their own even, ensure they do it in DECIMALS and allow them to quote it to differing numbrs of decimal places. Wehen they line up in order, it will then also assess their ability to read place value / decimals correctly.

12. Probability Impossible Unlikely Fairly Likely Certain

13. Events An event is something that could happen in the future. e.g. … It will rain tomorrow. I will be asleep at 7am next Saturday. I will cycle home from school tonight. Some more? Write your own event on your mini-whiteboard.

14. How likely is your Event? Think how likely your event is to really happen. Is it absolutely certain to happen? Or do you just hope it will? Stand beside the correct description of your event.

15. Probabilities Write 0 on ‘Impossible’ card, and ‘1’ on ‘Certain’ card What numbers should I write on the other cards? Write a more exact number on your card (Estimate) I will expect it to be close to its description. Sometimes we can accurately predict the probability of something happening. e.g. rolling a dice and getting a ‘4’. Sometimes it is very difficult / impossible to predict the probability. e.g. it will be sunny next Monday at 10.00am. Are you sure that probability is accurate? Even a weather forecaster would have to guess a bit! Now order yourself even more accurately.

16. The following notes and task should either be completed individually in books, or as a paired activity in creating a poster.

17. Probability An EVENT is something that could happen in the future. e.g. throwing a ‘5’ on a die e.g. it raining all next Wednesday afternoon Accurately draw your own probability line, with at least 6 written descriptions (including these two) Impossible Certain 1. Make up 4 different events of your own. Label them A, B, C and D. 2. Estimate the probability of each of these actually happening. Write:p(A) = p(B) = p(C) = p(D) = 3. Place and label them accurately on your diagram A BC D

18. Assessment Questions 1 Each have a mini-whiteboard. Work with your partner to answer questions. You have a 6-sided die. Show me: an event that has a probability of 1/6. an event that has a probability of 2/6 (or 1/3). an event that has a probability of 3/6 (or 1/2). another event that has a probability of 3/6 (or 1/2).

19. Assessment Questions 2 Now think about sporting events in the future. Show me: an event that is Impossible. an event you think has a probability of about 0.75 an event that has a probability of about 0.05 an event that has a probability of about 1.5 an event you think has an even chance of occurring