1. Green Jobs for the Green Economy George Bouma, Team Leader, Sustainable Development Cluster Mihail Peleah, Programme Specialist Green Economy and Employment Istanbul Regional Hub for Europe and the CIS

2. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Presentation Outline 1.Key aspects 2.Trends – green jobs and trade 3.Structural issues 4.Constraints/Opportunities 5.Targeting sectors 6.Some examples 7.Policy implications

3. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Green Economy Green economy: improved human well- being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities Green economy: – low carbon – resource efficient – socially inclusive Economic growth Social development Environmental sustainability

4. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Key Aspects Sustainability issues (eg climate change) require us to de-couple environmental impacts and economic growth Increasing protection and management – evolution of the ‘eco-industry’ Maintaining the environment as a primary natural resource input for sectors dependent on quality – eg agriculture and tourism Improving efficiency and reducing consumption – eg low carbon growth Increasing amount of trade in ‘environmental goods’ and associated employment in green growth

5. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR What are the trends – EU27 2012 (est) around 3,4 million - ~1% of the total workforce Ave. growth (2000 - 2008) approx 2,72 % Induced and indirect effects - turnover of € 750 billion and 4.6 million jobs Broader definition, some 19 million jobs or 5% of the total working population (2010)

6. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Global market in environmental technology

7. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR SEE: Export of environmental goods per capita is growing Based on UNDO (2012) “Green sectors in Eastern Europe and NIS”

8. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR SEE: Imports of environmental goods per capita is growing as well Based on UNDO (2012) “Green sectors in Eastern Europe and NIS”

9. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Trends (cont) However, SEE share of EG trade has remained relatively static Reflecting a limited focus and development of green sector/s (Albania and Croatia) Exclusion from international value chains – will mean catch up Behind technological frontiers and import cost National value chain boundaries remain static Skills development challenges

10. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Structural issues - What do we know? What is the effect of environmental policy on the economy? From a macro-economic perspective environmental policies do not come at the cost of growth and employment Positive trends in productivity and employment Contribute to structural change which shifts costs between sectors and this leads to trade-offs Hence the links to social inclusion to manage a changing workforce in the shift to green growth

11. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Industry issues - What do we know? Aggregate productivity declines not prevalent Technology is key factor at the industry and firm level Environmental targets are not a factor in competitiveness Design of policy frameworks are critical Institutions, governance capacity, technology and skills are key drivers

12. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Policy instruments – at early stage of implementation Source: OECD questionnaire to Labor Ministries in 27 countries, 2010

13. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Constraints/Opportunities Not dissimilar to ALMP include: – Much greater integration of development planning and sector coordination – Design of overall policy approaches and signals – Investment in technological transfers and capacities, – Weak private sector vs public sector – Poor technical specialization for trade (incl. intra- trade EU region)

14. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR

15. Green Jobs: Key sectors Energy – High energy use per GDP (BIH, SRB, KOS*, MNE) – Big share of oil-coal-gas, marginal other renewables (comparing to 11% EU) Agriculture – Still a major employer (42% ALB, 24% TUR, 22% SRB, 20% BIH) – Migrants receiving sector (HRV, MNE, SRB) – Outdated technologies, practices Tourism – Major export service (MNE, ALB, HRV, TUR) – Huge seasonal employment, migration Waste management – Heavily informal – not decent jobs, not green jobs – Scope of regional cooperation +Migration

16. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Energy High energy use per GDP (BIH, SRB, KOS*, MNE) Dirty energy: – Big share of oil-coal-gas, marginal of other renewables (comparing to 11% EU) – High carbon intensity of energy Potential for development – Renewables (solar, wind) – Energy efficiency of new building, refitting existing Green Jobs – Primary: Limited number of high-skill jobs – …but significant secondary effects

17. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Towards Green Economy

18. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Brown energy intensive Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per ton of energy equivalent consumed

19. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Energy: maturation of innovations drives costs down IRENA Renewable Power Generation Cost 2014 Report Cost reductions for small-scale residential solar PV, Q2 2008 to Q2 2014

20. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR UNDP experience—Croatia UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public- sector energy efficiency Results (2006-2010): – Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted – Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings – $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings – Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons – “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities – 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created – $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition 18

21. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Tourism Major export service (MNE, ALB, HRV, TUR) Huge seasonal employment, incl. migration (HRV, MNE, SRB) Potential for development – Eco- and agri-tourism (HRV, MNE) – Energy efficiency of transport – Energy efficiency of accommodation Green Jobs – Primary: big number of low to medium skill jobs, some high skill jobs – Significant secondary effects

22. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Tourism footprint: transport and energy efficiency matters Two weeks vacation for two in Montenegro, some 1000 km from home. Air travel Low EE hotel Rental cars/taxis Own car Medium EE hotel Train High EE hotel Public transport —30% —75% Source: Project Towards Carbon Neutral Tourism in Montenegro

23. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR UNDP experience—Montenegro Project “Towards Carbon Neutral Tourism in Montenegro” (EUR 3.09 mln. GEF, 2014-2019) Scope to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the Montenegrin tourism sector How to? – Policies and regulations to reduce the level of carbon dioxide (CO2), – Sustainable funding mechanisms, – Major investments in tourism infrastructure with low CO2 emissions – Raising public awareness on environmentally friendly tourism. Expected results: – Eco-certificate for at least 200 officially registered tourist facilities (100 large facilities and 100 private accommodations) – Direct effects on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases 77 kt of CO2 equivalent per year for a period of 20 years after the investment in this project. – Indirect effects on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases 174 kt of CO2 equivalent by the end of 2023, more than 360 kt of CO2 equivalent by the end of 2028.

24. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Migration is not standalone issue but a part of labour market issues

25. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Migration as a potential source of green skills remittances? Source: IOM “Labour Mobility as a Factor of Development in South-East Europe”, 2015 Montenegro Agriculture Constriction Trade Tourism Croatia Agriculture Constriction Tourism ↘ Shipbuilding

26. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Skills profile for green jobs Future employment in green jobs (changes): – Additional jobs in several areas (eg pollution- control) – Substitution of employment (eg from fossil fuels to renewable, landfill to recycling) – Particular jobs may be eliminated (eg banned packaging) – Re-skilling of existing jobs (eg plumbers, construction etc) Skills forecasting and investment required

27. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Skill mismatch for Green Economy Green demand Students enrolled in tertiary education Serbia 2012/2013 Green demand

28. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Policy Implications Coordinate environmental, economic and social concerns in national development policies Coordinate investments in jobs and skills, improve flexibility (life-long learning) Better match skill supply to labour market Specific training and expanding opportunities for disadvantaged groups Use peer learning to spread sustainable practices and use of new green technologies (B2B) Public private partnership in key sectors for green jobs Mobilize highly skilled nationals in the diaspora and migrants to contribute to green transitions Raise awareness and link it with skills development

29. Sub-regional Workshop on Employment and Social Inclusion/ 16-17 April 2015, Skopje, Macedonia FYR Thank you very much! George.bouma@undp.org Mihail.peleah@undp.org @UNDPEurasia