1. Pipeline Qra Seminar
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2. Pipeline risk assessment
Software for consequence modelling

3. Software for consequence modelling
What is consequence modelling?
Effects from accident (e.g. release or explosion)
Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure from explosion, flow from release and concentration at distance)
Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from overpressure or injuries from toxic concentration)
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4. Software for consequence modelling
What is included in consequence modelling?
-Dispersion (gas) -Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas) -Release (flow – liquid and gas) -Explosion (overpressure) -Jet fire/pool fire (extent and thermal radiation) -Toxicity (gas) -Smoked and gas ingress (buildings) -Structural integrity -Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE)

5. Software for consequence modelling
Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus software packages (several consequence models)
Somewhat a question of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban area or rural area and topography)
Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of project and time)
Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for license and knowledge of the software)
No single best software to solve all problems

6. Software for consequence modelling
Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling
Empirical consequence models (based on experiments) versus CFD models (advanced numerical calculations)

7. Software for consequence modelling
Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling
Software established by consultant companies, authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and process industry) and software companies
All of the software listed to the right is empirical consequence models
PHAST from DNVGL Canary from QUEST
EFFECTS from TNO
TRACE from Safer Systems
FRED from Shell ALOHA from EPA
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Slide with light blue factbox

8. Software: PHAST Software package from DNVGL
- Discharge and dispersion models - Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs) - Explosion models - Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose)
Continuously developed for over 30 years
Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP, Total, Maersk and Shell)

9. Software: PHAST Strengths of PHAST All-round
Simple (i.e. easy to learn)
Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software)
Weaknesses of PHAST
Limitations in congested areas
Limitations in urban areas (i.e. obstacles and topography)

10. Software: PHAST

11. Example of PHAST Ringsted, Denmark
- 30’’ gas pipeline bar - shopping centre at 100 meters

12. Example of PHAST
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short exposure) – 130 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from medium exposure) – 100 meter - Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from short exposure) – 70 meter

13. Example of PHAST
- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 100 meter - Flashfire (blue - ½ LEL) – 230 meter

14. Software: ALOHA Software (free) from EPA in USA
-Discharge and dispersion models -Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool fires and fireballs) -Explosion models -Models for the toxic hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose)
Part of the CAMEO software package (i.e. tools for emergency planning)

15. Example of ALOHA
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m2 – injuries from short exposure) – 80 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from medium exposure) – 40 meter - Jetfire (yellow - radiation 37.5 kw/m2 – fatalities from short exposure) – 30 meter

16. Example of ALOHA
- Flashfire (green - LEL) – 340 meter - Flashfire (blue – ½ LEL) – 500 meter

17. Software: CFD Short for: computational fluid dynamics
Not a specific software (i.e. group of software)
-CFX CFD from ANSYS
Uses numerical methods and algorithms to solve and analyse problems that involve fluid/gas flows
Could be applicable for wide range of problems

18. Software: CFD Could be applicable for wide range of problems
- Aerodynamics (e.g. aircrafts and cars) - Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships) - Power plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines) - Process equipment (e.g. flows and loads) - Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and cooling) - Marine structures (e.g. loads) - Environment (e.g. exhaust and dispersion) - Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and flooding) - Buildings (e.g. ventilation)

19. Software: CFD

20. Software: CFD

21. Software: CFD

22. Software: CFD Strengths of CFD
Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban areas and topography)
Weaknesses of CFD
Resources (e.g. man-hours, knowledge and economy)

23. Comparison of consequence modelling

24. Comparison of consequence modelling

25. QUESTIONS?
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