1. Title slide PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

2. PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION 2

3. “identify sources of risk, areas of impacts, events (including changes in circumstances) and their causes and their potential consequences” INTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION Content slide 3

4. Qualitative exercise Starting-point of the risk assessment Thorough (i.e. what is missed is being left out) Risk of doing something – risk of not doing something Operational risk (frequent) – emergency risk (rare) INTRODUCTION TO RISK IDENTIFICATION Content slide 4

5. Different methods and philosophy for risk identification Brainstorming versus checklist (i.e. creativity versus accuracy) Both philosophies incorporate experience within the system (personal experience versus community experience) METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION Content slide, two columns with image 5

6. Advantages of checklist Simple (understanding and execution) Cover the most and/or major (consistent and practical) Disadvantages of checklist Unspecific (not capturing project specific) METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION 6

7. Advantages of brainstorming Specific (capturing project specific – outside the box) Lessons learned (from previous projects) Disadvantages of brainstorming Subjective (based on input from participants) Approach (discussion on other concerns than risk) METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION 7

8. What-if HAZID (Hazard Identification) HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) FMEA (Failure Modes and Effect Analysis) Operator analysis FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) SWOT (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats Analysis) Different methods and philosophy for risk identification “Same, same. But different!” Similarities in methodology and philosophy Differences in way of presenting METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION Light blue fact box 8

9. Based on the question: what if…? Primarily - brainstorming Capturing deviation from the normal Often used when analysing changes made Focus on consequence (and avoiding the consequence) rather than focus on the actual cause METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 9

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11. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 11

12. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 12

13. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 13

14. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 14

15. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 15

16. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 16

17. METHOD: WHAT-IF…? 17

18. Description “HAZID is a structured, team based approach to identify hazards, their potential consequences, and requirements for risk reduction” Systematic (e.g. use of guidewords) All-round – from early stage of project to later stage of project Separate presentation on HAZID METHOD: HAZID 18

19. Description “HAZOP is a structured and systematic examination of a planned or existing process or operation in order to identify and evaluate problems that may represent risks” Process oriented (e.g. pressure, temperature and flow) More detailed - often following the HAZID Often used for process plants and nuclear plants Primarily - loss of production (operational risk) METHOD: HAZOP 19

20. METHOD: HAZOP 20

21. METHOD: HAZOP 21

22. METHOD: HAZOP 22

23. METHOD: HAZOP 23

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25. METHOD: HAZOP 25

26. METHOD: HAZOP 26

27. METHOD: HAZOP 27

28. METHOD: HAZOP 28

29. METHOD: HAZOP 29

30. Description “FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is analysed using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events” Often used for technical safety engineering and reliability engineering to understand how systems can fail and to quantify how often systems can fail What is Boolean logic? - Boolean logic is a mathematical logic in which the values of the variables are the truth values (i.e. true and false) 30 METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

31. Events - Basic event - failure or error in a system component - Conditional event - conditions that restrict or affect logic gates (e.g. need to be in operation) Gates - AND-gate – only when all inputs occur - OR-gate – when any input occurs - Exclusive OR-gate – only when one input occur Quantify through addition and multiplication (frequencies and probabilities) 31 METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

32. 32 METHOD: FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

33. Which risk identification method should I choose? - method to feel comfortable with Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity, stage of project and time) Method depending on the purpose (e.g. mapping of possible causes or consequences) Risk identification could be applicable for all kind of situations and problems Not just one time - never-ending process (i.e. changes) METHODS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION 33

34. QUESTIONS? End slide 34