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CLIENT INVESTMENT UPDATE Superannuation Products 31 December 2014
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2 GENERAL ADVICE WARNING AND DISCLAIMER The information in this presentation has been provided by MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402) a member of the NAB Group of Companies, 105–153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060 for advisers only. No company in the NAB group, nor MLC limited guarantees the capital value, payment of income or performance of any fund referred to in this presentation. Any opinions expressed in this communication constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. We believe that the information contained in this communication is correct and that any estimates, opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of compilation. However, no warranty is made as to their accuracy or reliability (which may change without notice) or other information contained in this communication. Any projection or forward looking statement in this report is provided for information purposes only and no representation is made as to the accuracy or reasonableness of such projection or that it will be met. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Returns are not guaranteed and actual returns may vary from target returns described in this document. Please note that all performance reported is before management fees and taxes, unless otherwise stated. This communication contains general information and may constitute general advice. Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or other specialist advice. Before making any decisions on the basis of this communication, you should consider the appropriateness of its content having regard to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Nominees Pty Ltd (ABN 93 002 814 959) as trustee of The Universal Super Scheme (ABN 44 928 361 101), and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au. THIS INFORMATION HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY MLC LIMITED (ABN 90 000 000 402) MEMBERS OF THE
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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.Market performance 2.Investment Futures Framework 3.Activity this quarter 4. More analysis of returns 5. Where to find client tools
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MARKET PERFORMANCE 4 1. 4 What happenedOur insights Very solid returns over the quarter and year to December. Australian and global REITs were the stand- out performers as lower bond yields made REIT yields more attractive. While volatility has been higher, share markets have largely defied underlying risks including geopolitical concerns and end to US QE. Higher yielding stocks continued to appeal to investors as bond yields fell to historic lows in major world markets. AUD weaker this quarter due to declining terms of trade and a strong US economy. Unhedged global assets were boosted by the falling AUD. Our foreign currency exposure position worked well. While positive for portfolio returns, the weaker AUD weakens the potential diversification benefit of foreign currency exposure. As the potential benefit still outweighs the risks, our portfolios remain overweight foreign currencies. Economic & geopolitical uncertainty remain elevated. Rising recession risks in the eurozone. Existing geopolitical issues rumble on (eg rising popularity of extremist parties in the eurozone, the Ukraine crisis and radical Islamist forces in Iraq). Oil prices have fallen significantly, but there is potential for escalation of Middle East & Russian tensions. Lower oil prices are positive for consumers but reduce US domestic investment. Australian shares and the AUD remain very vulnerable to adverse developments in China. US quantitative easing (QE) has ended: no new asset purchases, but interest rate increases remain some way off. European Central Bank set to adopt its own form of QE. It’s unclear whether very loose monetary policy will continue to boost share markets. Risk remains elevated and many assets are at least fully priced. Future return potential for all major asset classes is lower than average.
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MARKET PERFORMANCE 1. All asset classes delivered positive returns over 1, 3 and 5 years. 5
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Source: Iress A robust year for most global share markets but returns were modest compared to earlier in the year. Australia’s return was due largely to industrials, as resource and energy companies lost ground. China’s shares benefitted from a surprise interest rate cut in November. 6 Market1 year return to 30 June 2014 1 year return to 31 December 2014 S&P500 (USA)22.0%11.4% DAX (Germany)23.5%2.7% CAC (France)18.3%-0.5% Nikkei (Japan)10.9%7.1% Hang Seng (Hong Kong)11.5%1.3% Shanghai (China)3.5%52.9% FT100 (UK)8.5%-2.7% S&P/ASX200 Accumulation17.4%5.6% All Industrials17.3%11.4% All Resources17.8%-16.4% MARKET UPDATE 1. 6
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Source: Datastream, MLC MARKET UPDATE 1. The US QE program has stopped buying new assets. The Bank of Japan’s QE program and expected QE by the European Central Bank may offset US policy moderation. 7
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Sources: Datastream, US Department of Energy, MLC MARKET UPDATE 1. Oil prices were driven down sharply by weakening global demand and rising non-OPEC supply (by the US) as Saudi Arabia finally lost patience with OPEC’s lack of supply discipline. 8
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Source: Datastream 9 The falling oil price and sanctions drove Russia’s share market and currency down. In September, we instructed our emerging markets strategy manager to sell all Russian share and bond investments as the potential downside far exceeded any upside. MARKET UPDATE 1. 9
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Source: Datastream 10 Australia’s terms of trade have declined, reflecting lower resource commodity prices, and the AUD has weakened. We consider the AUD overvalued and vulnerable to further falls. MARKET UPDATE 1. 10
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Source: Datastream. *Total exports of goods and services. 11 Iron ore accounts for around a fifth of Australia’s exports. Prices have fallen to a five year low. The change in Australia’s fortunes have driven the share market lower and detracted significantly from national income. MARKET PERFORMANCE 1. 11
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Source: Datastream. MARKET PERFORMANCE 1. In the eurozone growth has slowed. Inflation remains worryingly low and political concerns have re-emerged in Greece. January elections appear likely to result in a new anti-austerity government that will seek to further restructure Greece’s debt. 12
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Our tailored scenarios continue to capture the primary set of distinct possible futures INVESTMENT FUTURES FRAMEWORK 2. For a description of each scenario, please refer to ‘MLC’s scenario insights & portfolio positioning’, December 2014. Higher Lower Probability Extended quantitative easing Three speed global economy (China soft landing) Early re-leveraging One speed slow growth world Two speed recovery Developed market austerity, recession, stagnation (Mild) inflationary resolution China hard landing Inflation shock Sovereign yield re-rating Reform Stagflation Extended risk aversion 13
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14 MLC INFLATION PLUS − MODERATE ASSET ALLOCATION AT 31 DECEMBER 2014 INVESTMENT FUTURES FRAMEWORK − MLC Inflation Plus positions Potential risk or opportunity Change in MLC Inflation Plus portfolios this quarter Risk of a market correction In recent quarters, several factors have combined to raise the risk of a further market correction. These include the prospect of less aggressive monetary policy settings in the US, slowing global growth and the possibly of renewed recession in Europe. A worrying mix of other geopolitical factors also added to market concerns. While none of these factors is new, the risk of each has intensified. Because of these factors, and stretched market valuations, the portfolio had been positioned increasingly defensively. It remained defensively positioned at the end of the December quarter. Risk of an eventual rise in inflation We consider the risk of investing in bank loans has increased recently due to continued growth in issuance of lower quality loans. The fall in the AUD has also tended to increase the level of risk in the portfolio. To assist manage exposure to these risks in the portfolio, we made a small reduction in the allocation to global bank loans this quarter, and increased the allocation to cash. Unchanged positions: Higher foreign currency exposure Defensive global shares (instead of broad market global shares) No direct allocation to long duration traditional bonds 2.
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15 MLC INFLATION PLUS PORTFOLIOS OBJECTIVE-DRIVEN ALLOCATIONS Source: MLC as at 31 December 2014 Target asset allocation: MLC Super Inflation Plus portfolios MLC Inflation Plus:ConservativeModerateAssertive (LTAR) Australian shares3.5%7%8% Global shares (unhedged)--2% Global shares (hedged)0.5%1%- Defensive global shares (unhedged)8%16%30% Global private assets (hedged)2%4%7% Emerging markets strategy (unhedged)3%4%7% Global property securities (hedged)--- Enhanced cash28%18%4% Australian non-government bonds27%18%2% Australian inflation-linked bonds12%9%6% Global bank loans2%3%- Insurance-related investments (hedged)-2% Low correlation strategy5%6%15% Multi-asset real return strategy (hedged)9%12%17% Borrowings--- Total100% 2.
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16 INVESTMENT FUTURES FRAMEWORK − MLC Horizon 4 Balanced positions Position relative to benchmarkWhy we have position Underweight to growth assets The risk of a further market correction has increased due to the prospect of more normal monetary policy settings in the US, slowing global growth and the possibly of renewed recession in Europe, and a worrying mix of other geopolitical factors. While these factors aren’t new, their risk has intensified. Because of these factors, along with stretched market valuations, the portfolio continued to be defensively positioned. Underweight to interest rate risk While government bond yields (interest rates on bonds) could decline from their already low levels, the potential for further falls is less than the potential for yields to rise. Overweight to foreign currencies Global share markets and the Australian dollar (AUD) tend to move in the same direction. By having an exposure to foreign currencies (for example, not hedging some of our overseas assets to the AUD) we can help insulate the portfolio against losses when share markets fall or are volatile. This position worked well this quarter. 2. MLC HORIZON 4 – BALANCED ASSET ALLOCATION AT 31 DECEMBER 2014
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2. INVESTMENT FUTURES FRAMEWORK − MLC Index Plus Balanced positions Position relative to benchmarkWhy we have position Underweight to growth assets The risk of a further market correction has increased due to the prospect of more normal monetary policy settings in the US, slowing global growth and the possibly of renewed recession in Europe, and a worrying mix of other geopolitical factors. While these factors aren’t new, their risk has intensified. Because of these factors, along with stretched market valuations, the portfolio continued to be defensively positioned. Underweight to interest rate risk While government bond yields (interest rates on bonds) could decline from their already low levels, the potential for further falls is less than the potential for yields to rise. Overweight to foreign currencies Global share markets and the Australian dollar (AUD) tend to move in the same direction. By having an exposure to foreign currencies (for example, not hedging some of our overseas assets to the AUD) we can help insulate the portfolio against losses when share markets fall. This position worked well this quarter. MLC INDEX PLUS – BALANCED ASSET ALLOCATION AT 31 DECEMBER 2014 17 Source:MLC
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18 Falling bond yields, and share price rises ahead of the underlying fundamentals, reduce future return potential and increase risk. 40 SCENARIO SET PROBABILITY WEIGHTED REAL RETURNS (DEC 2014) (5 YEARS, 0% TAX WITH FRANKING CREDITS, PRE-FEES, PRE-ALPHA) INVESTMENT FUTURES FRAMEWORK − Potential returns 2.
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ACTIVITY THIS QUARTER – Changes to MLC Inflation Plus asset allocations 19 3. 19 No changes to Assertive. Decrease in global bank loans (hedged) for Moderate and Conservative. This slightly increases the defensive positioning of these portfolios. Source: MLC
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20 A.MLC Inflation Plus portfolio returns Relative to benchmark Contributors to returns B.MLC Horizon portfolio returns Contributors to returns Benchmark indices Relative to peers C.MLC Index Plus portfolio returns Contributors to returns D.Asset class fund returns Relative to benchmark MORE ANALYSIS OF RETURNS 4.
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21 4. A. MLC INFLATION PLUS − Returns relative to benchmark 21 MasterKey Super Fundamentals Performance to 31 Dec 2014 3 months % 1 year % pa 3 years % pa 5 years % pa 7 years % pa CPI (latest available is 31 December 2014) 0.52.02.32.52.6 MLC Inflation Plus – Conservative Portfolio Net of fees and tax 2.0 ---- Before fees and tax 2.7 ---- Return above inflation - aims to achieve 3.5%pa above inflation (before fees and tax) over 3 year periods 2.2 ---- MLC Inflation Plus – Moderate Portfolio Net of fees and tax 2.5 ---- Before fees and tax 3.4 ---- Return above inflation - aims to achieve 5%pa above inflation (before fees and tax) over 5 year periods 2.9 ---- MLC Inflation Plus – Assertive Portfolio Net of fees and tax 4.19.312.98.94.3 Before fees and tax 5.311.916.712.47.5 Return above inflation - aims to achieve 6%pa above inflation (before fees and tax) over 7 year periods 4.89.914.49.94.9 Source: MLC
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22 MLC INFLATION PLUS ASSERTIVE RETURNS (BEFORE FEES AND TAXES) RELATIVE TO ITS TARGET 4. Delivered 4.9% pa real return over 7 years to 31 December 2014. Currently on track to deliver target return over shorter time frames. A. MLC INFLATION PLUS ASSERTIVE − Returns relative to benchmark Source: MLC
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4. CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL RETURN BY ASSET CLASS (BEFORE FEES AND TAX) A. MLC INFLATION PLUS ASSERTIVE − Contributors to returns 23 Source: MLC
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Global shares (unhedged) Global private assets Fixed income Multi-asset real return strategies Key contributors to most portfolios over the quarter Global shares (unhedged) Australian shares Fixed income Global private assets Key contributors to most portfolios over the year 4. B. MLC HORIZON − Contributors to returns 24
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25 B. MLC HORIZON − Benchmark indices from 1 July 2014 4. Asset class Index MLC Horizon 1 % MLC Horizon 2 % MLC Horizon 3 % MLC Horizon 4 % MLC Horizon 5 % MLC Horizon 6 % MLC Horizon 7 % Australian sharesS&P/ASX 200 Accumulation-11.021.031.036.041.0 52.0 Global sharesMSCI All Countries (A$unhedged)-11.014.017.023.030.0 38.0 MSCI All Countries (A$hedged)-2.04.06.08.514.0 25.0 Global property securitiesEPRA/NAREIT Global (A$hedged)-2.03.04.0 2.0- Global private assetsMSCI All Countries (A$hedged)-2.04.06.0 7.0 8.0 Alternatives and other (growth)CPI + 3.5%-1.63.25.24.54.0 5.0 TOTAL GROWTH ASSETS -29.649.269.282.098.0 128.0 Cash Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index* 30.010.05.0 --- - Australian fixed income Bloomberg AusBond Infl 0-10 Yr Index* -10.08.07.05.0-- Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0-3 Yr Index* 42.022.512.01.8--- Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index* -4.56.88.55.2-- Global fixed income Barclays Capital Global Aggregate (1-3 yrs A$hedged) 28.015.08.01.2--- Barclays Capital Global Agg (A$hedged)-4.56.88.55.3-- Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield (A$hedged) -0.50.81.00.5-- Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan (A$hedged)-0.50.81.00.5-- Alternatives and other (defensive)CPI + 2%-1.91.80.80.5-- Cash + 3%-1.0 2.0 TOTAL DEFENSIVE ASSETS 100.070.450.830.818.02.0 TOTAL ASSETS 100.0 130.0 25 * This index has recently changed it’s name from UBS to Bloomberg. Source: MLC
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26 Note: Peer universe is the MLC Morningstar Superannuation Universe Source: Morningstar Direct Returns are above median over most timeframes B. MLC HORIZON – Relative to peers – quartile performance rankings for MLC Super Fundamentals 4. to 31 December 2014 1 year3 years5 years MLC Horizon 2Q3Q1 MLC Horizon 3Q1Q2 MLC Horizon 4Q1Q2Q1 MLC Horizon 5Q1 MLC Horizon 6Q1
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All the MLC Horizon portfolios are above median over most timeframes − a strong result. MLC Horizon 4’s one year peer relative return is above median. The main reasons are: the foreign currency overweight has added value the overweight to global private assets has performed strongly, and Inflation Plus exposures have provided risk control while enhancing returns B. MLC HORIZON − Relative to peers 27 4. 27 Source: MLC
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MasterKey Super Fundamentals Performance to 31 December 2014 3 months % 1 year % pa 3 years % pa 5 years % pa 7 years % pa MLC Horizon 1 Bond (net of fees and tax) 0.42.33.13.43.7 MLC Horizon 2 Capital Stable (net of fees and tax) 2.05.47.45.63.9 MLC Horizon 3 Conservative Growth (net of fees and tax) 2.97.09.96.84.0 MLC Horizon 4 Balanced (net of fees and tax) 3.78.612.47.73.7 MLC Horizon 5 Growth (net of fees and tax) 4.19.114.28.23.3 MLC Horizon 6 Share (net of fees and tax) 4.59.616.18.62.9 MLC Horizon 7 Accelerated Growth (net of fees and tax) 4.910.920.710.02.1 28 4. B. MLC HORIZON − Absolute returns 28 Source: MLC
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Global shares (unhedged) Fixed income Australian shares Global shares (hedged) Key contributors to all portfolios over the quarter Global shares (unhedged) Australian shares Fixed income Global shares (hedged) Key contributors to all portfolios over the year 4. C. MLC INDEX PLUS − Contributors to returns 29 Source: MLC
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Asset class Index Conservative % Balanced % Growth % Australian shares S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation 21.0 32.0 37.0 Global shares MSCI All Countries (A$ unhedged) 15.0 18.0 24.0 MSCI All Countries (A$ hedged) 11.0 16.0 20.0 Property securities EPRA/NAREIT Global (A$ hedged) 3.0 4.0 TOTAL GROWTH ASSETS 50.0 70.0 85.0 Cash Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index* 5.0 - - Australian fixed income Bloomberg AusBond Infl 0-10 Yr Index* 8.0 7.0 5.0 Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0-3 Yr Index* 12.6 2.4 - Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index* 8.0 9.5 5.0 Global fixed income Barclays Global Aggregate 1 - 3 years (A$ hedged) 8.4 1.6 - Barclays Global Aggregate (A$ hedged) 8.0 9.5 5.0 TOTAL DEFENSIVE ASSETS 50.0 30.0 15.0 TOTAL ASSETS 100.0 30 C. MLC INDEX PLUS − Benchmark indices from 1 July 2014 4. * This index has recently changed it’s name from UBS to Bloomberg. Source: MLC
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31 4. C. MLC INDEX PLUS − Returns relative to benchmark 31 MasterKey Super Fundamentals Performance to 31 December 2014 3 months % 1 year % pa MLC Index Plus Conservative Growth (net of fees and tax) 3.17.3 MLC Index Plus Balanced (net of fees and tax) 3.88.7 MLC Index Plus Growth (net of fees and tax) 4.29.1 Source: MLC
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32 4. D. ASSET CLASS FUNDS − Relative to benchmark Source: MLC 32 *
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33 Client investment update presentationPresentation of fund performance, updated quarterly Fund performance commentariesClient report on fund performance for the quarter and year, updated monthly available on Fund Profile Tool Scenario insights and portfolio positioning Quarterly update on our investment positions, detailed report for financial advisers and a summary report for clients Strategy updatesOutline of changes to our investment strategies, including client letters and other tools Economic updatesMonthly commentary on economic and market developments, available as video and client Q&A Year in reviewMarket update prepared for calendar and financial years for your clients Investment insights and newsCommentary on current events and investment issues for your clients Manager insightsHighlights of MLC’s investment managers’ insights on markets and their positions, updated quarterly Stock storiesOur managers outline their rationale for purchasing specific companies, updated quarterly WHERE TO FIND CLIENT TOOLS 5. Go to the Adviser section of mlc.com.au, then go tomlc.com.au MLC Investments/Performance/Commentaries.
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