1. Friday Weather Discussion Clark Evans 27 March 2015

2. MJO Phase Diagram Peak amplitude on record (1974-present): 4.265 http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/

3. MJO & Tropical Wave Evolution http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/index.htm

4. OLR: MJO and Anomaly http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/

5. 850/200 hPa u: MJO and Anomaly 850 hPa at left, 200 hPa at right. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/

6. 850 hPa u: Full, Anomaly Full field at left, anomaly (from 1989-2008 climo) field at right. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/

7. Equatorial Pacific Ocean State http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp.php

8. ENSO Forecasts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ “…the dynamical models are anticipating a moderately strong event to develop in the Northern Hemisphere’s late spring and summer. They are notoriously bad for seeing through the spring predictability barrier, though, so it should be noted that the statistical models are more conservative, predicting a neutral-to- weak El Niño event.” IRI March 2015 Climate Briefing, http://iri.columbia.edu/news/march-2015-el-nino/

9. April-May-June 2015 Forecasts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

10. Winter 2014-15 In Review

11. Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/

12. Dec 2013 – Feb 2014 Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/

13. Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/

14. Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

15. Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Precipitation http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/

16. Dec 2014 – Mar 2015 Precipitation http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

17. Dec 2014 – Mar 2015 Snowfall http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

18. Drought Monitor http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

19. 500 hPa Height, Anomaly Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December 2014 – 23 March 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

20. 850 hPa Temperature, Anomaly Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December 2014 – 23 March 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

21. Five Periods of Interest 5-27 December (warm) 29 December – 14 January (cold) 15-31 January (warm) 1 February – 6 March (cold) 8-20 March (warm)

22. A Mild December http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

23. A Mild December Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 5-27 December 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

24. A Chilly New Year http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

25. A Chilly New Year Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 29 December 2014 – 14 January 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

26. Warmer and Dry in Late January http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

27. Warmer and Dry in Late January Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 15-31 January 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

28. A Persistent Mid-Winter’s Chill http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

29. A Persistent Mid-Winter’s Chill Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 February to 6 March 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

30. Spring into March http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp

31. Spring into March Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 8-20 March 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

32. Possible Pattern Influences http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

33. Possible Pattern Influences http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

34. Possible Pattern Influences http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/loading.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/2015.html SLP’ - SLP’ + SLP’ -

35. Possible Pattern Influences http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/loading.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/2015.html SLP’ - SLP’ + SLP’ -

36. Possible Pattern Influences http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml +NAO very similar to +AO during boreal winter +PNA in winter: below- (above-) normal heights in C. Pacific (western N. America).

37. Possible Pattern Influences http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

38. Some Scientific Questions Why does the spring predictability barrier for ENSO exist, and will the current El Niño intensify or not? Why has anomalous cold occurred over North America and nowhere else in the last two winters? Why did the mid-latitude pattern evolve as it did on sub-seasonal scales? Can we even identify why? What caused the MJO to achieve such a high amplitude this March, and what does it mean?