1. Demographic Transition Model
An explanation of the move from high birth rates/death rates to low birth rates/death rates in industrialized (developed) countries

2. Stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

4. Demographic Transition Model
a theory to explain human population change
based on
idea that all societies want to transition from pre-modern to postmodern
experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…)
- beginning about 1700: population surge! (Industrial Revolution, colonization…)
based on experience of richer, fully developed states - underwent population surge beginning about 1700 in Europe and then stabilized
Other states (typically ex-colonies of Western Europe - U.S., Australia or states in close proximity such as Russia) underwent similar process
Every other place can be seen somewhere in the transitional process that these states have gone through
Generally begins with high birth rates, high death rates, passes into high birth rate, lower death rate period, and ends with low birth rates an dlow death rates
Growth rate is low (maybe even negative) in beginning and the end
Massive increases in the middle that make the model compelling and explain what’s happening in today’s world
Birth rate - how many people born per 1000 people (US 14/1000)
Death rate - how many die (US 8/1000)

5. Important Demographic Words
Demographic- statistical characteristics of a population
Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 14
Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 8
Infant mortality rate- number of babies who die before the age of 1 per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5

6. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average number of children that would be born to a woman during her child bearing years Ex. US- 2.1
Replacement Rate- number of children a women needs to have to replace the current population Not 2 to account for deaths. Lesser developed countries have a higher Replacement Rate.
Life Expectancy- average number of years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; females- 80

7. Population Pyramids

8. Stage 1
premodern
hunter-gatherers

9. Stage 1: Low Growth Birth rate high death rates high Why?
Pre-industrial societies
Much human suffering
Birth rate high
death rates high
Why?
Epidemics, plagues, famines and wars
High IMR
Cost of raising a child = low
Children are “insurance” for parents in their old age

10. Population Pyramid – Stage 1
No States
Some isolated populations, such as rainforest tribes

11. Stage 2 - long stretch of time…
from hunter-gatherer stage to agriculturalists to factory workers
Agricultural Revolutions leads to specialization leads to formation of villages and towns (urbanization)
further advancements lead to creation of machines

12. Stage 2: High Growth
Death rates decline, but birth rates remain high  population explosion
Why?
Improved sanitation
Greater food supply b/c of improvements in agriculture (crop rotation)
Europe – agricultural revolution  industrial revolution
Can lead to migration

13. Population Pyramid – Stage 2
Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in Central America

14. File info into your brain!
Cloud=
File info into your brain!
Words with Friends=
Work with a partner
Discuss 2 things that you learned or found interesting about STAGE 1 or 2 of the DTM!

15. Stage 3
- most states in the planet are in this stage

16. Stage 3: Moderate Growth
Significant decline in birth rates
Need for children
Urbanization
Education
Child labor
Contraception use
Women’s rights
Family planning clinic in Kuala Terenganu, Malaysia

17. Population Pyramid – Stage 3
Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, Nicaragua

18. Stage 4
- fully developed, post-industrial, mostly Western nations

19. Stage 4: Low to Zero Growth
Birth & death rates low
Stable (but high) population
TFR ≤ 2.5
Can include baby booms
Birth rates lowest where women are most involved in workforce
Beach in the Netherlands – few children

20. Population Pyramid – Stage 4
Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, Iran, China

22. Stage 5: Negative Growth
Not part of original DTM
Death rates higher than birth rates
Declining population
TFR ≤ 2.1
High life expectancy and low labor force
In developed countries
Japan’s aging population presents different population problems

23. Population Pyramid – Stage 5
Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European and East Asian countries

24. File info into your brain!
Cloud=
File info into your brain!
Words with Friends=
Work with a partner
Discuss how population changes as countries become more developed. Are the changes positive or negative? Why?