1. The Role of Weather and Climate Service Innovation in Adaptation to Climate Change Atte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Finnish Meteorological Institute Presented by: Atte Harjanne

2. TOPDAD - Tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation Modeling costs and benefits of different adaptation policies in transport, energy and tourism sectors in Europe Background Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Services and products that consist of information about past, present or future weather or climate, their impacts or possible adaption or mitigation actions to manage these impacts. How do advances in weather and climate services affect adaptation to climate change? What are the likely advances in the supply and use of these services (especially in transport, energy and tourism sectors)? Literature review 23 semi-structured expert interviews Statistical user analysis Economic modeling excercises Methods

3. Adaptation to climate change Reducing exposureReducing vulnerabilityImproving resilience Strategic / Structural Comprehensive physical protection Climate services: + Weather services: ? Enhanced physical protection Climate services ++ Weather services:+ Enhanced societal preparedness Climate services: ++ Weather services: ? Operational / Adaptive Spatial/temporal substitution (avoidance) Climate services:+ Weather services:++ Tailored anticipatory technology Climate services: + Weather services: ++ Enhanced societal responsiveness Climate services: + Weather services: ++ Weather and climate services are critical for adaptation actions, whether they are proactive or reactive, endogenous or planned, or if the impacts are permanent or transient. Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Or are they?

4. Reduction in data related unit-costs Third party access to observation and model data Policies and regulation Network and data integration Improved capacity and increased options to adapt Market transformation Drivers and enablers of innovation

5. Drivers of innovation Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Reduction in data related unit-costs Third party access to observation and model data Network and data integration -Improved accuracy (historical trend: 1 day / decade) -Improved resolution in time and space -Broader observation coverage -Also from consumer mobile devices -Broader offering of services -New time scales: -Nowcasting -Seasonal forecasting -More accurate, available, tailored information  improved options and capability to adapt

6. Policy dependency Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Weather and climate services largely science based innovators (Pavitt, 1984).  Reliance on public funding and infrastructure Supercomputers, satellites, radars… Private actors half-hearted to invest Also regulation necessary for many of the envisioned services Mobile congestion Standardisation needs Privacy issues Policies and regulation Market transformation Fragmentation of value network New roles of national services

7. Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 New technology – new behavior (1)

8. New technology – new behavior (2) Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Service users compared to daily average % of popoulation in the activity

9. Identified innovations – Transport Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 High spatial resolution road weather models useful for both drivers, route planners and road clearance planners Comprehensive interactive intelligent road weather projection and information system informing and if need be instructing both driver and vehicle Further development of ship routing services, with new variables added such as water depth Further development regarding storm warnings and storm routes for aviation, high (3D) spatial resolution projections and nowcasts for airports’ airspace

10. Identified innovations – Energy Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 High spatial and temporal resolution projections (overland) for electricity demand relevant parameters (temperature, insolation, wind speed, humidity) High spatial and temporal resolution projections for wind speed both on-shore and off-shore at relevant axle heights Improvements in projections of effective (on the ground) solar radiation

11. Identified innovations – Tourism Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Further development in localized multi-feature (and multi-day) forecasts for specific tourist groups and tourism entrepreneurs, and improvement of its access / dissemination – possibly in conjunction with other information portals (e.g. local event lists for the coming days)

12. Weather Service Chain Analysis Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 1.ACCURACY - the extent to which weather forecast information is accurate 2.APPROPRIATE DATA - the extent to which weather forecast information contains appropriate data for a potential user 3.ACCESS - the extent to which a decision maker has (timely) access to weather forecast information 4.COMPREHENSION - the extent to which a decision maker adequately understands weather forecast information 5.ABILITY TO RESPOND - the extent to which a decision maker can use weather forecast information to effectively adapt behaviour 6.EFFECTIVINESS OF RESPONSE - the extent to which recommended responses actually help to avoid damage due to unfavourable weather information 7.OVERALL BENEFIT - the extent to which benefits from adapted action or decision are transferred to other economic agents

13. Estimating the value – Cost-Loss & WSCA Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Katz & Murphy (1997) Nurmi et al. (2013)

14. Including innovations Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 Perrels et al. (2013) Innovations in road transport could be worth 20 ME per year (Finland)

15. Conclusions & further research Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014 The future looks promising but needs some help Further research: Economic quantification: ARIO, agent-based modeling (ETH Zürich) More insight on the behavioral response needed Can there be too much information? What is the optimal level of tailoring and automation?

16. Further reading References Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University Press, U.K. Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223. Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu www.topdad.eu Harjanne, A., Ervasti, T. (2014) Analysis of user trends and behavior in online and mobile weather and climate services, FMI report (upcoming) Pilli-Sihvola K., Nurmi V., Perrels A., Harjanne A., Bösch P., Ciari F.(2014) Innovations in weather services as a crucial building block for climate change adaptation in road transport (submitted, EJTIR Special Issue) Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014

17. Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University Press, U.K. Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223. Pavitt, K. (1984), Sectoral Patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory, Research Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 343-373. Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu Pielke Jr, R. A., Sarewitz, D. and Byerly Jr, R. 2000. ‘Decision making and the future of nature: understanding and using predictions’, in Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr, R. A. and Byerly Jr, R. (eds.) Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC : Island Press, pp. 361 –387 References Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University Press, U.K. Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223. Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu References Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014

18. Atte Harjanne atte.harjanne@fmi.fi Adriaan Perrels adriaan.perrels@fmi.fi Poster: UAS-POT3018