1. Planning and Decision Making
Police Administration:
Structures, Processes, and Behavior
(Eighth Edition)
Charles R. Swanson, Leonard Territo,
and Robert W. Taylor
Planning and Decision Making
Chapter 8

2. Planning
The first step in the effective operation and management of a police department
Management by crisis
Crisis by management
Proper planning is not always appreciated by police administrators (not “real” police work)
Planning and good decision making is integral to effective police operations
Competent planning is a sure sign of good police administration and the first step in accurate decision making

3. Planning accomplishes the following:
Analysis of
Problems
Better
Information
Clarify Goals,
Objectives,
Procedures
Better
Allocation of
Resources
Cooperation
&
Coordination
Performance
of Programs
Clear Sense
of Direction
Greater
Public
Support
Commitment
of Personnel
Improve the analysis of problems
Provide better information for decision making
Help to clarify goals, objectives, and priorities
Result in more effective allocation of resources
Improve inter- and intradepartmental cooperation and coordination
Improve the performance of programs
Give the police department a clear sense of direction
Provide the opportunity for greater public support
Increase the commitment of personnel

4. Planning Approaches
Many different methods and approaches to utilizing planning in the decision-making process

5. Synoptic Planning Traditional approach
Based on “objective” or “rational” decision making
Different approaches to selecting alternatives (step 7)
Strategic
Cost-effectiveness
Must-wants
11 steps in synoptic planning (see figure)

6. Strategic Analysis Suitability studies Feasibility studies
Analysis of retained courses of action
Given a set of possible alternatives, the number of alternatives can be reduced in the following ways:
Make suitability studies of all alternatives
Determine the appropriateness of an action in accordance with general policies, rules, and laws
Subject the retained and suitable alternatives to feasibility studies
Determine whether an action is possible given current standards of operation, conditions, and restrictions
Analyze the retained courses of action. Apply each of the following factors to each alternative to reveal critical limits and tradeoffs:
Cost of each alternative
Performance
Effect of the alternative on the entire system
Time involved in implementation and setup

7. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
The alternative chosen should maximize the ratio of benefit to cost
Each alternative is weighed against a criterion
Alternatives are ranked in order of preference
Example: Costs of automating police records with the benefits to be derived
The model can be as complex as a set of mathematical equations or as simple as a purely verbal description of the situation in which intuition alone is used to predict the outcomes of various alternatives.

8. Must-Wants Analysis
Combines strengths of both strategic and cost-effectiveness analysis
Uses a comparative chart to conduct analysis
Useful when comparing similar items/alternatives
Combines subjective and objective standards.
What are some examples of situations where must-wants analysis might be used? (9mm semis v. .38 cal revolvers, Gateway v. Dell computers, etc)

9. Must-Wants Chart Chart for selecting a police patrol vehicle.
“Musts” are at the top of the page: Conditions that are set by the police chief and absolutely have to be met in order for an alterative to continue to be a viable choice.
“Wants” are listed below the musts, and corresponding data for each want are completed for each alternative that was not discarded in the previous step: Conditions, performances, characteristics, or features that are desirable but not absolutely necessary
Weight: the subjective importance of the want as determined by the police chief: scale of 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest)
Score: evaluation of the actual existence of wants by the chief: scale of 1-10
Weight and score for each want are multiplied and summed. The sum of each column is called the performance total of wants objectives.

10. Must-Wants Chart (cont.)
The second part of the must-wants chart (above left) is called the “possible adverse consequences worksheet.”
Statements concerning possible detriments or negative outcomes are listed for each alternative
The probability and seriousness of each comment are subjectively scored (1 to 10)
The final scores are summed and used in the last choice, the selection step
The final step is must-wants analysis (above right)
The alternative with the highest point value should be chosen

11. Summarizing Synoptic Planning
The figure above is a visualization of initiating and implementing new information technology systems.
Synoptic planning is the most widely used approach in police management

12. Administrative (Management) Operational (“Work Plans”)
Types of Plans
Administrative (Management)
Procedural
Operational (“Work Plans”)
Administrative
Formulation of the department’s mission statement, goals, and policies
The structuring of functions, authority, and responsibilities
The allocation of resources
Personnel management
Other concerns that are prevalent throughout the agency
Procedural
Included as part of a department’s written directive system
Guidelines for the action to be taken under specific circumstances
Detail how evidence is to be sent/transported, conditions under which male officers may search female suspects, how to approach traffic violators, etc.
Operational
Describe specific actions to be taken by line units
Tactical
Planning for emergencies of a specific nature at known locations (i.e. taking of hostages at a prison, jailbreak, etc.)
Tactical

13. Effective Plans Must be sufficiently specific
Benefits must offset the efforts of development and implementation
Involvement in formulation must be widespread
Should contain a degree of flexibility
Must be coordinated in development and implementation with other units of government
Must be coordinated in development and implementation within the police department
The means for comparing the results planned v. produced must be specified
Regardless of which strategy is used, agencies that plan outperform those that do not.
Police administrators must have a planning process and recognize the characteristics of effective plans (above)

14. Models Decision Making Rational Incremental Heuristic
Limited amount of research into different models.
Rational: the traditional model of decision making based on logic or reason
Incremental:
Heuristic: a simplified, gut-level method of decision making that emphasizes internal personality attributes of the decision maker

15. Alternative Decision-Making Models
Organizational Process
Government Politics
Operational Modeling
Naturalistic Modeling
Thin Slicing

16. Decision Making During Crisis Events
Branch Davidians:
Waco, TX
Weaver Family
Ruby Ridge, ID
1993 ATF raid to search for illegal weapons
Led to a 51-day standoff
Ended in a fire killing many children
Combined ATF and Branch Davidian deaths 72+
Concerns about the collaboration between military and police
Posse Comitatus Act
1992 U.S. Marshalls investigation of suspects and illegal weapon sales
Confusion over death of suspects’ 14-year-old son and a U.S. Marshall
Led to a standoff at the suspects’ fortified cabin
FBI snipers killed 2 adults who were inside the cabin

17. Post-Event Analysis
Incidents represent a series of individual decisions that depart from most mainstream models
Started within the Rational Model
Swayed by emotion or national attention?
Each event followed its own course
Similar to Incremental Model
Decision makers make different decisions based on timing and ability to control events
Vigilant decision maker
Groupthink
Defensive avoidance, do something
The incidents represent a series of individual decisions that depart from most mainstream models
Vigilant model: closely resembles the rational-comprehensive model
Thoroughly canvasses a wide range of alternatives
Surveys a full range of objectives to be fulfilled and the values implicated by choice
Carefully weighs the costs and risks of negative consequences as well as positive consequences
Intensively searches for new information relevant to further evaluation of the alternatives
Correctly assimilates and takes account of new information or expert judgment to which he/she is exposed
Re-examines positive and negative consequences
Makes detailed provisions for implementing chosen course of action
Groupthink: decision making by a group, characterized by a lack of both creativity and individual responsibility
Defensive avoidance: Decision maker loses hope for a peaceful outcome
Procrastination and delay
Passing the buck/denying personal responsibility
Bolstering and gaining superficial support from others

18. Future Crisis Events Policies should be institutionalized
Agencies must adopt a philosophy that clearly articulates the importance of the safety and security of human life during such events
Police agencies must consider withdrawal as a strategy
Police executives must consider the role and use of SWAT teams
Training for protracted conflicts should extend to executives
During crises, outside/neutral referees should assist the situation
Institutionalized: there must be concrete, written directives that reflect the overall philosophy of the department that must not be changed arbitrarily during a crisis event

19. Group Decision Making Assets Liabilities
Greater total knowledge and information
Greater number of approaches to a decision
Participation in problem solving increases acceptance
Better comprehension of the decision
Social pressure
Individual domination
Conflicting secondary goals
Winning the argument
Group decision making has both advantages and disadvantages over individual decision making.
Factors that can serve as liabilities OR assets:
Disagreement
Conflicting v. mutual interests
Risk taking
Time requirements
Who changes
Brainstorming: A group environment in which individuals can present any idea that seems to apply even remotely to the subject being considered with the understanding that criticism will be withheld unless it can somehow improve on the original idea

20. Ethics and Decision Making
Recognize ethical issue
Get the facts
Decide who has an important stake in the outcome
Carefully consider options from one or more perspectives
Make decision based on which option is the right thing to do
Test decision
How do you define ethics?
What are some daily events in which the police (administrators and/or patrol) must make ethical decisions?
Scan your newspaper for articles about the police. Do they involve ethical decision making?
Police administrators must identify ethical issues in decision making
Develop strategies to confront ethical dilemmas

21. Common Errors in Decision Making
Cognitive nearsightedness
The assumption that the future will repeat the past
Oversimplification
Overreliance on one’s own experience
Preconceived notions
Unwillingness to experiment
Reluctance to decide
What are some situations in which police administrators might make one of the above errors?