1. Statutory Assessment and the New National Curriculum Stephen Anwyll Ofqual AAIA Annual Conference Bournemouth 2nd October 2014

2. Who’s who in National Assessment Department for Education determines EYFS Framework and National Curriculum, defines expected standards and publishes outcomes Standards and Testing Agency (STA) part of DfE responsible for development and delivery of National Assessment arrangements Requirements on Local Authorities and schools (headteachers) Ofqual ‘keeps under independent review’, fair for learners? standards maintained?

3. What’s changing? 20152016 EY Age 5 / Rec 2-3 Progress Check EYFS Profile 2-3 Progress Check [EYFS Profile] New early baseline KS1 Age 7 / Y2 Phonics Screening Check (Y1/2) TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma (informed by test/task and externally moderated) S&L and Sc Phonics Screening Check (Y1/2) TA in Rdg / Wtg / Ma (informed by tests and externally moderated) S&L and Sc KS2 Age 11 / Y6 Test (R/GP&S/Ma) Levels 3-5 & 6 (Sc sample) & TA (inc statutory wtg TA moderation) Test (R/GP&S/Ma) (Sc sample) & TA (inc statutory wtg TA moderation)

4. DfE proposals 2016 (pub. March 2014) Accountability Attainment: From 2016, KS2 floor standard measure to be raised to 85% of pupils achieving new, higher expectation in reading & mathematics tests and writing TA Progress: measure from 2016 based on percentage of pupils making ‘sufficient progress’ in all of rdg and wrtg and ma, not separately ‘Sufficient progress’ to be defined in 2016 after new KS2 tests have been taken for the first time Transitional arrangements from 2016 to 2023

5. Measuring progress 2014 to 2023 YearsBasis of measuring progress in primary schools 2014 ‘levels of progress from KS1 to KS2 rdg and ma test outcomes and wrtg TA (as now) 2015 2016 KS1 ‘old’ TA levels to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes 2017 2018 2019 2020 KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes 2021 2022 New baseline to overall KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes OR KS1 ‘new’ TA outcomes to KS2 ‘new’ test and TA outcomes (whichever better) 2023 Early baseline to overall KS2 test and TA outcomes

6. Key issues in present system Pupil Assessment v School Accountability Purpose is accurate assessment of the individual pupil One use of the outcomes is to hold schools to account Both legitimate but tensions inevitable which can affect behaviours and lead to distortions Some evidence of these behaviours in all forms of current statutory national assessment

7. End of Key Stage 1 2014

8. Phonics Screening Check 2014:

9. Attainment and accountability 2016 floor standard: higher attainment expectation and more pupils to attain it (85%) so fewer schools likely to –In 2013, % of schools where 60% of pupils attained Level 4+ in all of Rdg and Ma tests and Wrtg TA –In 2013, % of schools where 85% of pupils attained ‘4b’ in Rdg and Ma tests and L4 in Wrtg TA 90% 10%

10. Progress and accountability 2016 floor standard: percentage of pupils making ‘sufficient progress’ in all of rdg and wrtg and ma, i.e. not separately –In 2013, % of schools where pupil progress from KS1 was below median in each of the three subjects (Rdg, Wrtg and Ma) DfE consultation document (July 2013) suggested that ‘sufficient progress’ will be defined so a similar number of schools fall below the floor as at present 24 %

11. Impact of new accountability measures 20132016?

12. Questions How can ‘perverse incentives’ be avoided with the Reception Baseline in a context of high stakes school accountability? How will progress be calculated up to 2023 with the move to scaled scores in KS2 tests? If progress measure covers whole of primary phase, what are the implications for schools with: –High mobility? –High percentage of EAL pupils? FSM pupils? How will Ofsted deal with changes to available assessment data?

13. Key implications pupil progress in reading, writing and mathematics, rather than attainment, the focus for most schools pupil progress tracking will need to take account of new, national ‘performance descriptors’ progress ‘data’ derived from statutory assessment will go through changing forms until 2023 ‘sufficient progress’ will not be defined in advance so schools need to be able to justify how they have used assessment to improve learning KS1 teacher assessment will carry very high stakes (at least until 2019)

14. Main challenges to the system time needed to establish new standards high stakes school accountability on pupil progress tests promote a misleading impression of accuracy lack of coherence between school-level approaches to classroom assessment, monitoring progress and national benchmarks Ofsted: competing demands on assessment data (e.g. Rec. Baseline at pupil level) and inconsistency of approach during period of change teacher performance management

15. Links  Final proposals for assessment and accountability: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/new-national- curriculum-primary-assessment-and-accountabilityhttps://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/new-national- curriculum-primary-assessment-and-accountability  Draft KS1 and KS2 Test Frameworks for 2016: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national- curriculum-assessments-test-frameworkshttps://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national- curriculum-assessments-test-frameworks  Reception Baseline criteria https://www.gov.uk/reception-baseline-approval-process-for- assessmentshttps://www.gov.uk/reception-baseline-approval-process-for- assessments Ofqual contact: National.Assessment@ofqual.gov.uk