1. Climate change and tropical coastal ecosystems
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Global Change Institute
University of Queensland

2. Climate change
Ecosystems
People

4. Centre of Biodiversity
Corals (>76%), mangroves (>70%)
Seagrass (>70%), Reef fish species (37%)
Epicentre of most marine organisms
100 million people living coastally
Coastal resources are all important

5. 300 page report : www.panda.org/wwf_news/?164062/
I’m going to refer to the conclusions of a major study that we published earlier this year ... This study looked at the issues of climate change, marine ecosystems and people within the Coral Triangle. I have a few copies of the summary report which can be downloaded along with the full report at the following website: page report:
300 page report :

6. Coral reefs are declining at 1-2% per year
Tropical coastal resources are critical to 100 million yet are severely threatened.
Coastal resources provide:
Food
Income
Building materials
Coastal protection
Wave energy
Storm/tsunami impacts
Coastal stability
Traditional medicines
Bio-discovery
Cultural importance
Local factors
Water quality
Over-fishing
Physical destruction
Global factors
Ocean warming
Acidification
Sea level rise
Storm intensity
Sea grass
Coral reefs
Mangroves
Loss so far: 30-50%.
Coral reefs are declining at 1-2% per year
(Bruno and Selig 2007)

7. The waters of the Coral Triangle are rapidly warming and acidifying
ppm
NOAA
Up to 3-4oC per century
(1-2oC is too much)
ppm
ppm
Peñaflor et al., Coral Reefs in press; permission of Springer Science and Business Media
Need blue conditions to maintain carbonate coral reefs

8. PLUS sea level rise

9. Coral reefs are declining at 1-2% per year
Tropical coastal resources are critical to 100 million yet are severely threatened.
Coastal resources provide:
Food
Income
Building materials
Coastal protection
Wave energy
Storm/tsunami impacts
Coastal stability
Traditional medicines
Bio-discovery
Cultural importance
Local factors
Water quality
Over-fishing
Physical destruction
Global factors
Ocean warming
Acidification
Sea level rise
Storm intensity
Sea grass
Coral reefs X
Mangroves X
Loss so far: 30-50%.
Coral reefs are declining at 1-2% per year
(Bruno and Selig 2007)

10. Implications for the future?
Worst Case (IPCC A1B)
Best Case (IPCC B1)
50% of current ecosystems by 2050
<5% of current ecosystems by 2100
Food harvested (protein)
50% by 2050
5% by 2100, continues to erode
Management of local threats makes no real difference ...
50% of current ecosystems by 2050
30% of current ecosystems by 2100
Food harvested (protein)
50% of today by 2050
30% of today by 2100 but rebounds
Management of local threats makes big difference ...
Extent of ecosystems relative to today (%)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)

11. Conclusion: Not too late but we need to take 4 urgent steps:
Stabilise of atmospheric CO2 well below 450 ppm (and +2oC)
Reduce the impact of local stresses on coastal ecosystems
Decrease vulnerability of coastal people and infrastructure
Establish financial mechanism to allow CT countries to respond to inevitable changes