1. Oluwakemi Izomo

2. Hans-Peter Plag August 28, 2014 The Challenge: Leaving the Holocene http://www.mari.odu.edu Maintaining a Safe Operating Space for Humanity

3. Marcott et al., 2013 Global Sea Level ChangesGlobal Temperature Changes The Baseline: During the Holocene, global temperature, climate, and sea level were exceptionally stable. The Holocene was a “safe operating space for humanity” The Holocene, the most recent geological epoch, started 11,700 years ago The Challenge: Leaving the Holocene

4. HoloceneHolocene Carbon Dioxide 21st Century: Post- Holocene Global Temperature in the Post- Holocene Our children will have to live on a planet unknown to humanity...

5. We are leaving the Holocene: Climate Change (***) Ocean acidification (**) Stratospheric ozone depletion (*) Nitrogen (******) and Phosphorous cycles (**) Global freshwater (*) Change in land use (*) Biodiversity loss (*******) Atmospheric aerosols (?) Chemical pollution (?) Climate change is a symptom, not the cause, not the “sickness.” The “global boundaries” of the “safe operating space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009) We are in the middle of an “extinction-class event”, a planetary accident.

6. Being out of scale Scaling law for metabolic rate: Y = Y 0 * M (3/4) Metabolic Rate Mass human: Y = 50 -100 Watt Energy consumption per capita: Global Average: Y E = 2,735 Watt M = 10 metric tons Worst case: Y E = 22,000 Watt M = 170 metric tons Extended metabolic rate: Y E = Y + C E (C E : total energy consumption) Blue Whale

7. Being out of scale Scaling law for metabolic rate: Y = Y 0 * M (3/4) human: Y = 50 -100 Watt Energy consumption per capita: Global Average: Y E = 2,735 Watt M = 10 metric tons Extended metabolic rate: Y E = Y + C E (C E : total energy consumption) Metabolic Rate Mass Worst case: Y E = 22,000 Watt M = 170 metric tons Humanity has an extended metabolic rate equivalent to 14 Billion elephants (2.7 Billion for the U.S. alone) 14 Billion elephants: a heavy “load’ for Earth

8. The Global Boundaries of the “safe operating space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009) We are pushing Earth out off the Holocene, our safe operating space... It is embarassing how wasteful and inefficient we are...

9. “What is good for Earth’s life support system is good for humanity” Economy for humanity: “An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system Economy against humanity: An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients. “Sustainable Development is a development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life support systems, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” (Griggs et al., 2013) Maintaining a Safe Operating Space

10. Contribution: Understanding that most risks are human-made, self-inflicted Post-2015: Ecosystem-based risk reduction should start with the wasteful, inefficient human ecosystem

11. Oluwakemi Izomo