1. better information --> better decisions --> better health 8 th October 2014 David Baird, Service Manager Andrew Lee, Principal Information Analyst, Health & Social Care Information ISD, Public Health & Intelligence

2. Joint Strategic Commissioning

3. Static reports Database queries Forecasting Predictive Modelling Evaluation Good Data Value Difficulty Information Knowledge Intelligence Information to Intelligence For Improved Outcomes What’s available Now What’s coming next and How we Can help The Future

4. The Challenge 2012 – Population aged 65+ 50% 61% 2035 – Population aged 65+ 17% 25% 40% £4.6bn Total spend aged 65+ Hospital Spend (£2.3bn) Emerg adm (£1.4bn) 48% 20% Had multiple admissions Stay < 2 days 491,000 £93m 51,145 31% Days lost to delays Cost of delays Aged 65+ rec HC Rec 10+ hours HC

5. The Future Strategic Plan established Co-Productive Approach Analyse Aware of Current and Future Demands Service User Pathways Risk Prediction Plan Identify areas for Service Change Quantify Cost Impact Investment and Dis-Investment Scenario Planning Review Evaluating Service Impact Do Developed Skill Sets Identified Areas for Building Capacity Personal Outcomes Approach (at the heart of your decisions) Evidence Based Decisions

6. Information: What’s Available Now CHP Profiles Hospital Admissions and A & E Delayed Discharges SPARRA and ACP Planning Prescribing & Polypharmacy Efficiency & Productivity Scorecard NASA linkage Workforce and Workload Care Homes Social Care Census Respite survey Mental Health and Learning Disabilities Care Inspectorate

7. Health & Social Care Data Integration & Intelligence project (HSCDIIP) Key Objective To develop a nationally linked Health and Social care file at an individual service user level (Activity & Costs) Four Key Work streams Inputs Information Governance IT solution Outputs Information: What’s Coming Next

9. Paint the current picture Population ProjectionsResource Consumption Admission PracticeDelayed Discharges Home Care Information: What’s Available Now

10. Paint the current picture Home CareCare Homes Local Data Sets Information: What’s Available Now

11. Population Projections Admission PracticeDelayed Discharges Home Care Information: What’s Coming Next

12. Population Projections Admission PracticeDelayed Discharges Home Care Information: What’s Coming Next “Analysis is one of the most important activities in the commissioning cycle. Poor analysis of past or future trends will result in flawed commissioning decisions and wasted resources” Social Work Inspection Agency (SWIA) Guide to Strategic Commissioning

13. All Partnerships (All Ages) per weighted capita Understand Variation in Spend Information – How we Can Help

14. Understand Resource Use for Cohorts of Clients Information – How we Can Help

15. JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Added to WL OP assessment (ophthalmology; £70) Treatment (DC; ophthalmology; procedure; £976) Added to WL Treatment (DC; ophthalmology; procedure; £976) A&E (£103) Em admission (gen med; 3 days; £1,323) Prescriptions (£1,159) Diagnosed CHD Added to QoF Dementia Register Em admission (resp med; procedure; 4 days; £1721) Em admission (gen med; 24 days; £8,042) Delayed Discharge (Home) A&E (£103) Em admission (gen med; 2 days; £882) Transfer Geriatrics (40 days; £15,640) Homecare (364hrs; £6,137) No record of Homecare Discharge to Care Home; Prescriptions £1,159 Prescriptions £1,179 73 Days in acute setting at cost of £27,711 42 Days in acute setting at cost of £16,522 HC + ACP IC Service User X: female, age 72, lives alone, diabetic since 68 Information – How we Can Help

16. Identify areas of high resource use to help first year of planning Information – How we Can Help

17. Forecast resource impact based on a ‘do nothing’ Scenario See Andrew - example Information – How we Can Help

18. Example: West Dunbartonshire ACPs Information – How we Can Help

19. Predictive Analysis / Scenario Planning Releasable costs / PBMA ‒Modelling Impact of Service Redesign ‒Model various scenario's ‒Establish potential options ‒Understand ‘Real’ financial implication of service change ‒PBMA ‒Evidence Based Decisions Information – How we Can Help

20. Performance Monitoring Evaluation Assessment OutcomesImpact AnalysisWhat WorksOutcomesIndicatorsBenchmarking Evaluation

21. Static reports Database queries Forecasting Predictive Modelling Evaluation Good Data Value Difficulty Information Knowledge Intelligence Information to Intelligence For Improved Outcomes Guidance Public Health Expertise Analytical Support